Tari Eason

[jambalaya]

RAPM estimate definitely includes quality of opponent. Eason was 6th best in country against top150 teams and 3rd best against top 50.

His BPM is also at least top 6 in country, so even if you subjectively and individually apply a modest to moderate discount, he is still well ahead of almost everybody.

BPM is adjusted for opponent / other player quality and somewhat adjusted in other ways including minutes played but if you want to make more adjustments and feel appropriately calibrated, go ahead. However the extent of his advantage against bench players over average is not exactly known to me. He finished games and increased minutes by almost 20% as season went on, improving overall metric performance late in season; so I am not that concerned about this potential issue.

Many rookies get moderate minutes and maybe more later when they adjust.

[GSWFan1994]

What's not to like about this guy?

- Amazing measurements
- Plays hard
- Projects as above average on defense right out of the gate
- Not afraid of contact

I believe he will rise in the workout weeks leading up to the draft.

The tools are there, the intangibles seem to be great, and he jumps out of the screen in terms of an eye test.

Seems to me like he's the steal of the draft, speaking purely about players currently in the lottery range.

I think he has a chance of eventually becoming an All-Star in the league.

[Frichuela]

What's not to like about this guy?

- Amazing measurements
- Plays hard
- Projects as above average on defense right out of the gate
- Not afraid of contact

I believe he will rise in the workout weeks leading up to the draft.

The tools are there, the intangibles seem to be great, and he jumps out of the screen in terms of an eye test.

Seems to me like he's the steal of the draft, speaking purely about players currently in the lottery range.

I think he has a chance of eventually becoming an All-Star in the league.

Agreed. He is a great prospect. His improvement from year 1 to year 2 is impressive. I truly hope he lasts till 10 and my Wizards select him!

[moss_is_1]

It's too bad he'll be long gone by 19, would be so great to have him on the Wolves.

[GSWFan1994]

So, his reasonable case is a Marcus Morris with better defense, 17/6 kind of player, positive on defensive side, neutral on offense. And hypothetically, a little black hole on offense, turns it over more on offense than creates in assist (like he does now in college). Is that an average, reasonable outcome? (As we all seem to agree no one should develop like Kawhi).

If this is the average outcome, I don't know if I want him at 10-ish. I like him around 14-15 in this case.

Hold on... so you think a "17/6 kind of player" is only worth a late lottery pick in THIS draft, which is considered from average to weak?

In most drafts, this player would be worth a top 5 pick.

Just take a look at the legendary 2003 draft... after LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Carmelo, wouldn't this player be drafted at 5? He would definitely be a top 8/10 pick.

Your logic makes no sense.

[GSWFan1994]

There’s zero doubt in my mind Eason will be a “riser”, but how high? The Kings seem to do what they please, so 4th seems possible. 6th-8th seems more likely. Seems like a good choice for Portland, better than trading for Jerami (tho I can still hope they panic somehow).

Agreed. He is a great prospect. His improvement from year 1 to year 2 is impressive. I truly hope he lasts till 10 and my Wizards select him!

If I'm Sacramento or Detroit (4th/5th), I'm taking a long look at Eason.

I definitely don't expect him falling to 10. If it happens, then it's a amazing pick for the Wizards.

[LofJ]

Unless he has some character red flags Eason won't slip past the Blazers with the 7th pick. He's the prototype two-way wing that every team in the league covets. Teams picking after the Blazers will have to trade up if they want him.

[Blazinaway]

Unless he has some character red flags Eason won't slip past the Blazers with the 7th pick. He's the prototype two-way wing that every team in the league covets. Teams picking after the Blazers will have to trade up if they want him.

My guess is Blazers would go with Keegan Murray if he was there before Eason and it's also a very big IF whether the Blazers even keep the 7

[jambalaya]

Eason 3rd on my big board currently and probably not moving down.

[MasterIchiro]

Hornets are getting this guy and everyone will be jelly.

[Juggynaut]

I can see him be a top 5 pick. Are we sure Jaden Ivey or Shaedon Sharpe are better than this guy?

[Catchall]

I think realistically, Keegan could go at #5 and Tari could go at #6.

[The Moose]

I've probably spammed way too many Tari stats in this thread over the past couple of months, but f it, whats a few more

















Nobody is touching his activity levels.

Outlier


note: the JM20 bubble is Josh Minott, not surprised he's getting some 1st round buzz

[SelfishPlayer]

I've probably spammed way too many Tari stats in this thread over the past couple of months, but f it, whats a few more

















Nobody is touching his activity levels.

Outlier


note: the JM20 bubble is Josh Minott, not surprised he's getting some 1st round buzz

You have two college reserves mentioned in your post, do you recognize their productivity/activity happened against a larger amount of reserve players than what a starter competes against?

[The Moose]

Spoiler:

I've probably spammed way too many Tari stats in this thread over the past couple of months, but f it, whats a few more

















Nobody is touching his activity levels.

Outlier

note: the JM20 bubble is Josh Minott, not surprised he's getting some 1st round buzz

You have two college reserves mentioned in your post, do you recognize their productivity/activity happened against a larger amount of reserve players than what a starter competes against?

yes, but in any sort of meaningful way, no, not at all.

Eason averaged 24.4 mpg which was 5th most on his team, and in line with starters on every other team. He played starter minutes and he finished plenty of games for LSU. He played against both starters and bench players, as does everybody on the court.
Not to mention most teams in SEC only go 7, max 8 deep in their rotation. I don't see that making much of a difference at all.

If you wanted to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are benefitted by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, thats something I would recognise.

If you have any data to show the difference in Eason's production vs reserves/starters compared to other draft prospects, I'd like to see it because I'm not buying there was any significant difference at all.

[SelfishPlayer]

Spoiler:

I've probably spammed way too many Tari stats in this thread over the past couple of months, but f it, whats a few more

















Nobody is touching his activity levels.

Outlier

note: the JM20 bubble is Josh Minott, not surprised he's getting some 1st round buzz

You have two college reserves mentioned in your post, do you recognize their productivity/activity happened against a larger amount of reserve players than what a starter competes against?

yes, but in any sort of meaningful way, no, not at all.

Eason averaged 24.4 mpg which was 5th most on his team, and in line with starters on every other team. He played starter minutes and he finished plenty of games for LSU. He played against both starters and bench players, as does everybody on the court.
Not to mention most teams in SEC only go 7, max 8 deep in their rotation. I don't see that making much of a difference at all.

If you wanted to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are benefitted by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, thats something I would recognise.

If you have any data to show the difference in Eason's production vs reserves/starters compared to other draft prospects, I'd like to see it because I'm not buying there was any significant difference at all.

I'm not selling anything, I'm just stating a fact. Eason was a reserve, he competed against inferior players more than starters typically do therefore increasing his opportunity to excell.

[The Moose]

You have two college reserves mentioned in your post, do you recognize their productivity/activity happened against a larger amount of reserve players than what a starter competes against?

yes, but in any sort of meaningful way, no, not at all.

Eason averaged 24.4 mpg which was 5th most on his team, and in line with starters on every other team. He played starter minutes and he finished plenty of games for LSU. He played against both starters and bench players, as does everybody on the court.
Not to mention most teams in SEC only go 7, max 8 deep in their rotation. I don't see that making much of a difference at all.

If you wanted to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are benefitted by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, thats something I would recognise.

If you have any data to show the difference in Eason's production vs reserves/starters compared to other draft prospects, I'd like to see it because I'm not buying there was any significant difference at all.

I'm not selling anything, I'm just stating a fact. Eason was a reserve, he competed against inferior players more than starters typically do therefore increasing his opportunity to excell.

You're stating a fact (Eason came off the bench), and then inferring information from it, that you haven't proven and can't show.

Unless you're saying that every single one of the best players on others teams is a starter, we cannot know how much coming off the bench impacted his competition. It's a silly point to make.
Eason is LSU's best player, and he came off the bench. This point alone should illustrate why you cant deduce the level of competition each individual player faced based on whether they started the game on the court or on the bench.

Again, if If you want to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are slightly inflated by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, I can understand that position.

[MasterIchiro]

What the hell is the difference between the 3rd, 4th and 5th rotation players on a college roster and the 6th, 7th and 8th? Their skill levels are nearly identical outside the top 2 in a rotation. And Eason closed against them. The Hornets selected last year's SEC 6th man of the year Kai Jones. Kai went ahead of the Longhorns' starting center J. Sims. Basically, what Eason does against later rotation players he can do against the top rotation players. He can put them all on a poster and lock down all of them on defense. Even in the NBA, outside the big three on any given team, the talent separation is small.

[SelfishPlayer]

yes, but in any sort of meaningful way, no, not at all.

Eason averaged 24.4 mpg which was 5th most on his team, and in line with starters on every other team. He played starter minutes and he finished plenty of games for LSU. He played against both starters and bench players, as does everybody on the court.
Not to mention most teams in SEC only go 7, max 8 deep in their rotation. I don't see that making much of a difference at all.

If you wanted to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are benefitted by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, thats something I would recognise.

If you have any data to show the difference in Eason's production vs reserves/starters compared to other draft prospects, I'd like to see it because I'm not buying there was any significant difference at all.

I'm not selling anything, I'm just stating a fact. Eason was a reserve, he competed against inferior players more than starters typically do therefore increasing his opportunity to excell.

You're stating a fact (Eason came off the bench), and then inferring information from it, that you haven't proven and can't show.

Unless you're saying that every single one of the best players on others teams is a starter, we cannot know how much coming off the bench impacted his competition. It's a silly point to make.
Eason is LSU's best player, and he came off the bench. This point alone should illustrate why you cant deduce the level of competition each individual player faced based on whether they started the game on the court or on the bench.

Again, if If you want to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are slightly inflated by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, I can understand that position.

That means nothing, he went against 2nd units frequently just like other reserves on all levels of basketball.

[The Moose]

I'm not selling anything, I'm just stating a fact. Eason was a reserve, he competed against inferior players more than starters typically do therefore increasing his opportunity to excell.

You're stating a fact (Eason came off the bench), and then inferring information from it, that you haven't proven and can't show.

Unless you're saying that every single one of the best players on others teams is a starter, we cannot know how much coming off the bench impacted his competition. It's a silly point to make.
Eason is LSU's best player, and he came off the bench. This point alone should illustrate why you cant deduce the level of competition each individual player faced based on whether they started the game on the court or on the bench.

Again, if If you want to argue their per 100 poss/per 40 mins are slightly inflated by playing less minutes overall than some other players on this list, and that they might not be able to keep that pace/rate with increased minutes, I can understand that position.

That means nothing, he went against 2nd units frequently just like other reserves on all levels of basketball.

Do you honestly not understand the problem with your position? Or you just aren't willing to admit it's wrong?

I'll put it more simply

Your argument is this:
All bench Players= inferior to starters

Tari Eason is the best player on LSU, and came off the bench. Therefore, you cannot say that just because someone comes off the bench, they are inferior competition.

I'm still waiting for you to show any stats/data, I'll take anything at this point, that shows Eason benefitted from playing against "bench units", whatever that actually means, given most teams run 7 man rotations for most of the game.