ConSarnit wrote:First Step wrote:It comes down to decision making. Would you rather make a decision with more or less information? This doesn’t mean that high school players who go straight to the NBA won’t become stars — they could. But, you’re making the selection with a lot more uncertainty, which increases the risk.NO-KG-AI wrote:
Do HS kids even bust more than college players, or are the expectations just way higher? Almost everyone falls short of what their player comparison/upside is on basically every site, except for like 5-10 guys in a given draft it seems.
If you draft a high schooler your odds of hitting (historically) are much higher than from college. 41 players have been drafted straight from high school. At least 25 have been legit NBA players. 10 have been all-stars.
You’re comparing very different data sets. Most players drafted in the second round would come from colleges. So it’s not a good comparison.
Look up decision theory if you’d like to learn more.