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Thoughts?

I’m doing some alittle bit of research into him.
Seems to have tons of potential. 6’10”, decently mobile, has nice form and can shoot from 3, handles the ball decently in the open court, seems to speak pretty articulately since he was young.

Playing in the Horizon league for his dad when he could have gone to a D1 school. Has really fallen off and has looked pretty bad recently but the potential is there. Concerns over his aggression and assertiveness. Doesn’t create that well for himself but could develop.

He’s been exposed playing at Milwaukee. A one trick pony that’s borderline unplayable when his shot isn’t falling, and it seems to not be falling a lot. He also shows zero effort on defense. Dude should be dominating the horizon league. I’m sure he’ll still be a lottery pick based on potential.

Anything on Baldwin yet? He can’t afford to have another crappy year. If he comes out now he can at least sneak into the first and secure the bag. The delta between betting on yourself vs not getting a guaranteed contract isn’t worth it imo

I'm curious if we have a list of players who fit this criteria:

-one and done
-got drafted by NBA team
-played in a non-high major conference
-posted a TS% of under 50% during their 1 college season
-posted a BPM of under 0 during their 1 college season

I'm guessing that either it's never happened before or if there is a player that fits that criteria, they probably didn't do jack sh*t in the NBA. And almost definitely did not get picked in the 1st round.

But I'm genuinely curious...

Hal14 wrote:I'm curious if we have a list of players who fit this criteria:

-one and done
-got drafted by NBA team
-played in a non-high major conference
-posted a TS% of under 50% during their 1 college season
-posted a BPM of under 0 during their 1 college season

I'm guessing that either it's never happened before or if there is a player that fits that criteria, they probably didn't do jack sh*t in the NBA. And almost definitely did not get picked in the 1st round.

But I'm genuinely curious...

Rafael Barlow mentioned it a few weeks ago…it wasn’t the exact stats your using but it was something similar.

I’m pretty sure it’s never happened

he should come back and transfer, and I don't usually say this.

clyde21 wrote:he should come back and transfer, and I don't usually say this.

Yup. Unless he gets a 1st round promise during the draft process, coming back would be his best bet. He just needs to transfer to a good team, a team where he doesnt have to do everything because that is not his game right now.

Transfer to a team where he gets to hover around the perimeter and drain open 3s. All he needs is a lights out year from 3 and a team will take him at minimum late 1st.

The only problem with that is he's going to be turning 20 this November. So if he does stay for a year, he will be 21 the majority of his rookie year. That could hurt him in the draft.

But ya go to a team where he can collect a nice NIL deal, where he will get some open looks on a consistent basis. Because even if he has a bad year next year in college, then most likely that would mean he would've had a rough year in the G League next year as a rookie and no guarantee he gets a guaranteed deal. So ya might as well come back and give himself a chance to play himself into the 1st round (again assuming he doesnt get a 1st round promise this year).

Either his pre-college eval was right and it will show in workouts or there isn't anything another year in college can really show.

MemphisX wrote:Either his pre-college eval was right and it will show in workouts or there isn't anything another year in college can really show.

Sure there is. Him proving he can do it in actual competition over a long period of time. Dont get me wrong, ya he can go in at some workouts and light it up and that might be enough for a team. But it could easily not be enough, especially for a team to give a guaranteed 4 year deal to.

Or what if the team or 2 that is willing to take a guy based off of just a really good workout and overlook a horrific year works him out and he just has an off shooting day?

Again if he works out and a team guarantees him a 1st round pick, then ya there is no point in coming back to college. But if he doesnt get that guarantee, he could easily play himself into a late 1st round pick in next year's draft if he goes to a team where he can light it up from the perimeter for a full season.

Duke4life831 wrote:

clyde21 wrote:he should come back and transfer, and I don't usually say this.

Yup. Unless he gets a 1st round promise during the draft process, coming back would be his best bet. He just needs to transfer to a good team, a team where he doesnt have to do everything because that is not his game right now.

Transfer to a team where he gets to hover around the perimeter and drain open 3s. All he needs is a lights out year from 3 and a team will take him at minimum late 1st.

The only problem with that is he's going to be turning 20 this November. So if he does stay for a year, he will be 21 the majority of his rookie year. That could hurt him in the draft.

But ya go to a team where he can collect a nice NIL deal, where he will get some open looks on a consistent basis. Because even if he has a bad year next year in college, then most likely that would mean he would've had a rough year in the G League next year as a rookie and no guarantee he gets a guaranteed deal. So ya might as well come back and give himself a chance to play himself into the 1st round (again assuming he doesnt get a 1st round promise this year).

Agreed with all of this (for the most part). I'm just saying that if I'm an NBA team, no way in hell I'm taking him with a 1st round pick. There's definitely more than 30 guys I'd take over him right now. Just not worth the risk. He's a 3&D guy who couldn't shoot and he couldn't defend as a freshman, despite playing in an easy conference.

He's in the transfer portal. He should go to a college team with a good coach, a team that is good, that has some other guys who can score so it's not all on Baldwin, and a team that can play a fast, up tempo game.

Lastly, I disagree about the age thing. Sure, as a general rule a 20 yr old prospect might have lower draft stock than a 19 yr old. But the proof is in the pudding, we saw it this season with how much guys like Ivey, Mathurin, Keegan, Eason and Agbaji all raised their draft stock by coming back another year.

He's a Wisconsin kid. Why not transfer to Wisconsin? Good program. And we saw this season how big of a sophomore season leap Johnny Davis made for them.. Baldwin and Davis were teammates on team USA at FIBA U19. I'm sure they can talk to each other and make it happen..

Duke4life831 wrote:But it could easily not be enough, especially for a team to give a guaranteed 4 year deal to.

NIL raises an interesting question of economics although I suspect the monetary opportunities are small if he continues to want to be coached by his father. Would the money be better at a big school or with a 2-way contract after being drafted in the 2nd round? The basketball experience would probably be better in the G-League or even playing professionally in another country.

Wizop wrote:

Duke4life831 wrote:But it could easily not be enough, especially for a team to give a guaranteed 4 year deal to.

NIL raises an interesting question of economics although I suspect the monetary opportunities are small if he continues to want to be coached by his father. Would the money be better at a big school or with a 2-way contract after being drafted in the 2nd round? The basketball experience would probably be better in the G-League or even playing professionally in another country.

I believe him playing for his dad is done. I haven't heard but I don't even think his dad has a new job yet.

And if we are going off of some of the prices that guys like Nijel Pack are getting in the transfer pool. I think Baldwin will make more money in college next year than in the G League or if he gets a two way contract.

PBJ put up all time bad numbers at the combine. I believe his vertical is less than 30 inches. He was also the slowest in multiple drills.

azcatz11 wrote:PBJ put up all time bad numbers at the combine. I believe his vertical is less than 30 inches. He was also the slowest in multiple drills.

I mean he had to know before this he was that bad right? Why'd he participate???

K_chile22 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:PBJ put up all time bad numbers at the combine. I believe his vertical is less than 30 inches. He was also the slowest in multiple drills.

I mean he had to know before this he was that bad right? Why'd he participate???

That’s exactly what I was thinking. No idea lol

azcatz11 wrote:PBJ put up all time bad numbers at the combine. I believe his vertical is less than 30 inches. He was also the slowest in multiple drills.

His measurements were crazy in a good way though. I think people are just misunderstanding his archetype completely. He went from being an incredibly bad version of KD (eg Kevin Knox) to possibly having a Kevon Looney type career. Could actually end up being quite valuable as a 5 down the road, and maybe even a floor spacing one. Just a thought.

If Baldwin goes back to school, we could see a battle of the least athletic player in draft between Baldwin Jr and Emoni Bates.

EvanZ wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:PBJ put up all time bad numbers at the combine. I believe his vertical is less than 30 inches. He was also the slowest in multiple drills.

His measurements were crazy in a good way though. I think people are just misunderstanding his archetype completely. He went from being an incredibly bad version of KD (eg Kevin Knox) to possibly having a Kevon Looney type career. Could actually end up being quite valuable as a 5 down the road, and maybe even a floor spacing one. Just a thought.

Are you joking around or are you serious?

So your point is - by showing completely horribly in the drills teams will be forced to use him at the 5? And he could excel at the 5?

Talk about next level thinking lol

Patrick Baldwin Jr is simply the modern version of the New York City area high school player. NYC area high school players years ago were more highly touted than they deserved to be simply because they played in a city with such a large and influential media. Today these same high school players exist, they are just hyped by social media instead. Once these guys leave high school they get exposed.