To start, this is a list of all-time high ranked high school prospects by their 247 Composite Score. This is based a normalized z-score metric relative to the top 50 players that year. Note, this is not a measure of the greatest high school prospect, rather a measure of how much greater you are relative to other players in your class. This way of calibrating makes sense because your draft position is relative to other players from your class (and sophomores, juniors from the previous two classes). We will call this the "scaled restricted compscore". The "scaled unrestricted compscore" is below in the first post.
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year rank name scaled_compscore Pk
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2013 1 AndrewWiggins 1.799701 1
2013 2 JuliusRandle 1.726244 7
2012 1 NerlensNoel 1.703900 6
2007 1 EricGordon 1.693798 7
2007 2 OJMayo 1.693798 3
2011 1 AnthonyDavis 1.687269 1
2022 1 DereckLively 1.676732 NA
2015 1 BenSimmons 1.675875 1
2015 2 SkalLabissiere 1.675875 28
2012 2 ShabazzMuhammad 1.668305 14
2010 1 HarrisonBarnes 1.664188 7
2018 1 RJBarrett 1.657754 3
2005 1 GeraldGreen 1.657183 18
2005 2 JoshMcRoberts 1.657183 37
2021 1 ChetHolmgren 1.656237 NA
2014 1 JahlilOkafor 1.651854 3
2014 2 EmmanuelMudiay 1.651854 7
2008 1 BrandonJennings 1.646688 10
2007 3 MichaelBeasley 1.640590 2
2007 4 KevinLove 1.640590 5
2019 1 JamesWiseman 1.639869 2
2017 1 MarvinBagley 1.639082 2
2006 1 GregOden 1.623046 1
2017 2 MichaelPorter 1.621165 14
2011 2 AustinRivers 1.620380 10
2013 3 AaronGordon 1.616058 4
2009 1 DerrickFavors 1.609391 3
2020 1 CadeCunningham 1.608274 1
2016 1 JoshJackson 1.606684 4
2008 2 ByronMullens 1.602342 24
2013 4 JabariParker 1.597693 2
2020 2 JalenGreen 1.590404 2
2007 5 DerrickRose 1.587381 1
2008 3 ueHoliday 1.572779 17
2015 3 BrandonIngram 1.572469 2
2005 3 MontaEllis 1.563733 40
2006 2 KevinDurant 1.561015 2
2013 5 AndrewHarrison 1.560965 44
2009 2 JohnWall 1.559317 1
2016 2 HarryGiles 1.556600 20
2019 2 AnthonyEdwards 1.551761 1
2021 2 PaoloBanchero 1.549199 NA
2014 3 StanleyJohnson 1.547329 8
2010 2 KyrieIrving 1.546779 1
2012 3 KyleAnderson 1.543725 30
2012 4 IsaiahAustin 1.543725 NA
2009 3 DeMarcusCousins 1.542625 5
2022 2 AmariBailey 1.542163 NA
2011 3 MichaelKiddGilchrist 1.536769 2
2007 6 KyleSingler 1.534173 33
==== ==== ==================== ================ ===Here is a list of lowest ranked lottery picks
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year rank name scaled_compscore Pk
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2007 48 EvanTurner -1.6583257 2
2020 46 MosesMoody -1.3580977 14
2012 43 WillieCauleyStein -1.2148339 6
2008 42 KlayThompson -1.0140284 11
2011 39 BenMcLemore -0.9882815 7
2018 39 KiraLewis -0.8579475 13
2016 36 LauriMarkkanen -0.8140265 7
2006 35 DJAugustin -0.7496468 9
2018 37 TylerHerro -0.6529644 13
2019 36 IsaacOkoro -0.6156999 5
2011 31 OttoPorter -0.4866158 3
2010 32 TerrenceRoss -0.4827185 8
2017 31 ShaiGilgeousAlexander -0.4572516 11
2015 29 DonovanMitchell -0.2888489 13
2010 30 MeyersLeonard -0.2646733 11
2009 28 ThomasRobinson -0.2433616 5
2016 30 ZachCollins -0.1462443 10
2010 27 KendallMarshall -0.0298554 13
2007 28 ColeAldrich -0.0088681 11
2019 26 PatrickWilliams 0.0010573 4
2019 25 OnyekaOkongwu 0.0186789 6
2018 25 CobyWhite 0.0551591 7
2011 26 MichaelCarterWilliams 0.0819387 11
2019 23 LaMeloBall 0.1067871 3
2017 23 TraeYoung 0.1340220 5
2014 22 DevinBooker 0.1710737 13
2010 21 DionWaiters 0.2049625 4
2012 23 TJWarren 0.2445329 14
2006 21 EarlClark 0.2583599 14
2006 22 MikeConley 0.2583599 4
==== ==== ===================== ================ ===What is the relationship between Scaled Comp Scores and pk? This is non-linear for all among top all players.
What about for top 20 ranked players (a line between 5 starts and 4 starts most years)? Still non-linear, but best we can do without adding additional features.
Clearly a linear model here is non-sense, and a non-linear model with one feature is also basically non-sense. We are going to use descriptive statistics to best reasonably infer Sharpe's draft position.
Let's look at 247 Composite Score (buckets) and median draft pick. First column is bucket that each score belongs to, second being the pick, third being the number of players in that bucket ever.
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rank_cut Pick count
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(1.75,1.8] 1.0 1
(1.7,1.75] 6.5 2
(1.65,1.7] 7.0 14
(1.6,1.65] 4.0 13
(1.55,1.6] 2.0 11
(1.5,1.55] 10.0 24
(1.45,1.5] 7.0 10
(1.4,1.45] 11.0 11
(1.35,1.4] 14.0 12
(1.3,1.35] 17.0 15
(1.25,1.3] 13.0 9
(1.2,1.25] 13.0 9
(1.15,1.2] 26.5 10
(1.1,1.15] 28.0 13
(1.05,1.1] 24.0 11
(1,1.05] 18.5 25
(0.95,1] 29.0 11
(0.9,0.95] 19.5 17
(0.85,0.9] 21.0 14
(0.8,0.85] 25.0 12
========== ==== =====Here is a unrestricted version where scaling is done over all years (Wiggins, Oden, Barrett, Chet) all have the same score.
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rank_cut_all Pick count
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(1.65,1.7] 7.0 14
(1.6,1.65] 4.0 13
(1.55,1.6] 2.0 11
(1.5,1.55] 10.0 24
(1.45,1.5] 7.0 10
(1.4,1.45] 11.0 11
(1.35,1.4] 14.0 12
(1.3,1.35] 17.0 15
(1.25,1.3] 13.0 9
(1.2,1.25] 13.0 9
(1.15,1.2] 26.5 10
(1.1,1.15] 28.0 13
(1.05,1.1] 24.0 11
(1,1.05] 18.5 25
(0.95,1] 29.0 11
(0.9,0.95] 19.5 17
(0.85,0.9] 21.0 14
(0.8,0.85] 25.0 12
(0.75,0.8] 21.0 12
(0.7,0.75] 30.5 10
============ ==== =====High school overall rank versus median average pick?
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rank Pick
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1 3.0
2 8.5
3 7.0
4 6.0
5 12.0
6 24.0
7 16.5
8 24.0
9 23.0
10 14.0
11 24.0
12 15.0
13 24.5
14 13.0
15 24.0
16 21.0
17 30.5
18 29.0
19 25.0
20 44.0
==== ====Sharpe has a composite rank of 3, and a Scaled Composite Score of 1.54. Though his rank is a little wonky since he reclassified.
If you think he is composite ranked #1, the median outcome is a 3rd pick. If look at his 247 composite rank of 3, then the median pick is the 7th pick.
If you look at his restricted compscore of 1.54, unrestricted compscore of 1.57, then he should be anywhere between a 1 to 10 pick, 1-7 if you nudge him into the 1.55+ bucket.
tl;dr Sharpe's #4-6 draft position is likely justified and it wouldn't be outrageous to draft him even higher without play. This all without taking into accounts interviews, workouts, (and non-existing) college play.