Boom and Bust

[JRoy]

Pick one player in the 2022 nba draft to far exceed expectations and another to fall far below those expectation and why. Maybe we can look at it in a year and see how those predictions fared.

I will start off:

BUST: AJ Griffin, injuries and less than seem less fit in any position.

BOOM: EJ Liddell, will show flashes as a rookie, get traded to another team and blow up as Diet Draymond or Supercharged Grant Williams.

[Magicman125]

Agbaji Boom

AJ Griffin Bust

[SeattleJazzFan]

gut says ivey busts (and this one has the potential to make me look very stupid down the road)

boom: keegan

[babyjax13]

Bust: Chet Holmgren (relative to expectations, I don't think he'll be a star, I think he will be something akin to Myles Turner)
Boom: Johnny Davis

[tester551]

Boom: Keegan Murray (also Mark Williams, Tari Eason, Dalen Terry)
Bust: Shaedon Sharpe, AJ Griffin

[azcatz11]

Bust: Chet Holmgren (relative to expectations, I don't think he'll be a star, I think he will be something akin to Myles Turner)
Boom: Johnny Davis

What is the 10/10 outcome for Davis? A better Donovan Mitchell b/c he's taller (and he actually wants to play defense?)

[babyjax13]

Bust: Chet Holmgren (relative to expectations, I don't think he'll be a star, I think he will be something akin to Myles Turner)
Boom: Johnny Davis

What is the 10/10 outcome for Davis? A better Donovan Mitchell b/c he's taller (and he actually wants to play defense?)

I think something similarish to Devin Booker (on offense). I have his likely outcome as filling in that middle range between starter and star that is so rare at the shooting guard position right now.

[azcatz11]

Bust: Chet Holmgren (relative to expectations, I don't think he'll be a star, I think he will be something akin to Myles Turner)
Boom: Johnny Davis

What is the 10/10 outcome for Davis? A better Donovan Mitchell b/c he's taller (and he actually wants to play defense?)

I think something similarish to Devin Booker (on offense). I have his likely outcome as filling in that middle range between starter and star that is so rare at the shooting guard position right now.

So like a prime Gary Harris type player?

[babyjax13]

What is the 10/10 outcome for Davis? A better Donovan Mitchell b/c he's taller (and he actually wants to play defense?)

I think something similarish to Devin Booker (on offense). I have his likely outcome as filling in that middle range between starter and star that is so rare at the shooting guard position right now.

So like a prime Gary Harris type player?

I think a bit better than that, maybe more on the level of (post-injury) Eric Gordon, but yes, that general area.

[JRoy]

What is the 10/10 outcome for Davis? A better Donovan Mitchell b/c he's taller (and he actually wants to play defense?)

I think something similarish to Devin Booker (on offense). I have his likely outcome as filling in that middle range between starter and star that is so rare at the shooting guard position right now.

So like a prime Gary Harris type player?

I don’t rate G Harris that highly. He was a below average starter at his peak. I’d say Wes Matthews at his peak was a bit better and he was probably about average or slightly above average.

[babyjax13]

I think something similarish to Devin Booker (on offense). I have his likely outcome as filling in that middle range between starter and star that is so rare at the shooting guard position right now.

So like a prime Gary Harris type player?

I don’t rate G Harris that highly. He was a below average starter at his peak. I’d say Wes Matthews at his peak was a bit better and he was probably about average or slightly above average.

I think healthy Wes Matthews was much better than average, even as a starter. But that Gary Trent/Wes Matthews/Eric Gordon/17-18 Gary Harris is where I'd expect Davis to end up at ... but with the outlier potential to be better.

[JRoy]

So like a prime Gary Harris type player?

I don’t rate G Harris that highly. He was a below average starter at his peak. I’d say Wes Matthews at his peak was a bit better and he was probably about average or slightly above average.

I think healthy Wes Matthews was much better than average, even as a starter. But that Gary Trent/Wes Matthews/Eric Gordon/17-18 Gary Harris is where I'd expect Davis to end up at ... but with the outlier potential to be better.

I hope you’re right. He seems a better, twitchier athlete than those guys and a pretty solid defensive player.

[tmorgan]

Busts: Jabari, Griffin
Boom: Paolo, Eason, Daniels

I have no read on Chet. I learn from experience watching players, and nothing i’ve watched tells me anything about pro Chet. Good luck to the team that drafts him… I can see Hall of Fame and broken and washed out on his rookie deal.

[Catchall]

I'm not in on Johnny Davis. The shooting numbers worry me. The ball skills aren't quite good enough for a lead guard. Maybe he fixes his shooting and plays a role like Deanthony Melton. Maybe he can be Malcom Brogdon in the future. I don't have him in the lottery though.

As for Boom prospect: Jaden Hardy could be the next Bradley Beal. Nikola Jovic should be anywhere from pretty solid to a borderline star. Wendell Moore could be the next Desmond Bane, which is pretty good.

Bust prospect: I'm not sure what to do with Chet. I want him to be like Anthony Davis, but he isn't. He's actually like a skinnier version of young Dirk Nowitzki before the shooting proved itself. He defends well, so that at least gives him a floor of Zach Collins if he ever fills out physically.

[SelfishPlayer]

Boom: 18 year old Dominick Barlow, currently a second round pick at best.

Bust: Paolo Banchero, short arm PF that benefitted from having a grown man's body. He'll be 20 years old at the start of the NBA season.

[CptCrunch]

I have not met one person who loves Griffin on these boards. It seems that Griffin is only ranked high because he is ranked high on the mainstream internet mocks.

Either no one loves Griffin in the front offices or NBA scouts love Griffin (assuming the mocks we see with 'intel' from league 'sauces' are not all bull doodoo)

[babyjax13]

I have not met one person who loves Griffin on these boards. It seems that Griffin is only ranked high because he is ranked high on the mainstream internet mocks.

Either no one loves Griffin in the front offices or NBA scouts love Griffin (assuming the mocks we see with 'intel' from league 'sauces' are not all bull doodoo)

I loved him at the beginning of the year when he was a man of mystery. I still like him, but I don't see star written on him. Would be very comfortable drafting him 8-12 but not where a lot of mocks have him.