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Most years we see someone projected top 10-12 slide a few picks. Last year, Duren was projected top 10 in a lot of places and went 13th, and AJ Griffin was another player many had in the lottery who slid to 15th: https://www.nba.com/news/2022-consensus-mock-draft

This is the current top-10 on the hoopshype composite mock draft. Who slides, and why?
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-mock-draft-2023-consensus-victor-wembanyama

1. Victor Wembenyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Scoot Henderson
4. Amen Thompson
5. Cam Whitmore
6. Jarace Walker
7. Ausar Thompson
8. Taylor Hendricks
9. Anthony Black
10. Grady Dick
(11. Cason Wallace)

This is me reading *WAY* too much into who is REPORTED to work out and where, but my guess would be Ausar Thompson. Hoopshype's tracker has him working out with two teams so far, Portland and Charlotte. They also have him working out with the only teams reported to have worked out Amen. Because of the competition level in OTE, I could see a lot of teams in the 9-14 range (who I think are all hoping to make the playoffs) deciding to pick guys they feel more confident about. Could Ausar also be angling to slide down a bit so a team that picks Amen can also grab a later lottery pick?

The easy answer here, though, is Grady Dick --- and that's because Cason Wallace is, IMO, a better prospect, and Dick feels like a poor fit in Dallas (even though they worked him out).

Dick has no business being taken in the lottery. Since he's mocked in the top 10 a lot he could slide compared to mocks but it wouldn't really be a slide as far as his talent and where he should go.

Gradey Dick probably goes #11 to Orlando. It just makes way too much sense for it not to happen. Orlando needs shooting and they already have an even better lotto pick. I don't really consider that a drop, though, Gradey has been mocked at #11 in several other mocks.

I really don't believe that my Pacers are going to draft Ausar at #7 so I'd say that he's the one who slides based on the mock in the OP.

Nuntius wrote:Gradey Dick probably goes #11 to Orlando. It just makes way too much sense for it not to happen. Orlando needs shooting and they already have an even better lotto pick. I don't really consider that a drop, though, Gradey has been mocked at #11 in several other mocks.

I really don't believe that my Pacers are going to draft Ausar at #7 so I'd say that he's the one who slides based on the mock in the OP.

FWIW the OP is just an average of several mock drafts.

I could see Dick dropping. Great shooter, good off-ball cutter. No on-ball creation, poor defender. I think you can find what Grady Dick offers for an MLE type deal.

I'll go with Whitmore. Black hole offensively and a bit undersized. I can see Coulibaly moving past him pushing Whitmore outside the top 10. Can also see some team picking Lively ahead of him.

The Thompsons. Poor shooting and lack of elite competition.

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babyjax13 wrote:

Nuntius wrote:Gradey Dick probably goes #11 to Orlando. It just makes way too much sense for it not to happen. Orlando needs shooting and they already have an even better lotto pick. I don't really consider that a drop, though, Gradey has been mocked at #11 in several other mocks.

I really don't believe that my Pacers are going to draft Ausar at #7 so I'd say that he's the one who slides based on the mock in the OP.

FWIW the OP is just an average of several mock drafts.

Ah, I see. I do think that the spots make sense then.

babyjax13 wrote:I could see Dick dropping. Great shooter, good off-ball cutter. No on-ball creation, poor defender. I think you can find what Grady Dick offers for an MLE type deal.

I could see it if Orlando wasn't at #11. Given the fact that they already have a higher pick at #6 and that they really, really need a shooter, I think that this is where Gradey goes.

Village Idiot wrote:I'll go with Whitmore. Black hole offensively and a bit undersized. I can see Coulibaly moving past him pushing Whitmore outside the top 10. Can also see some team picking Lively ahead of him.

Hard disagree on Whitmore. Think he is fall proof really until 8 or so.

Yes he is a bit small for a PF. Sure he is a blackhole on offense, but his outlier talents on offense is simply too much in terms of self creation, being above rim player and absolutely stellar priors high school makes him a can't miss prospect.

Whitmore is not dropping below 9

clyde21 wrote:Whitmore is not dropping below 9

yup. no chance the jazz pass on him if he's there.

CptCrunch wrote:

Village Idiot wrote:I'll go with Whitmore. Black hole offensively and a bit undersized. I can see Coulibaly moving past him pushing Whitmore outside the top 10. Can also see some team picking Lively ahead of him.

Hard disagree on Whitmore. Think he is fall proof really until 8 or so.

Yes he is a bit small for a PF. Sure he is a blackhole on offense, but his outlier talents on offense is simply too much in terms of self creation, being above rim player and absolutely stellar priors high school makes him a can't miss prospect.

I don't really see any "outlier" talents. Honestly he kind of just reminds me of Okoro without the passing.

Village Idiot wrote:I'll go with Whitmore. Black hole offensively and a bit undersized. I can see Coulibaly moving past him pushing Whitmore outside the top 10. Can also see some team picking Lively ahead of him.

I don't think he'll drop outside the top 10, but I am surprised nobody ever seems to comment on his below average (by NBA standards) wingspan. Were we not expecting close to 7'0"? Is he below average wingspan for an NBA SF at 6'8"? Take away his athleticism and strength advantage every game (for his whole life up until next year) and I have some concerns, especially about that whole "black hole" thing.

As for who drops, I'll go with Amen Thompson if Houston passes. Outside the top 10 is tough though. From that list I see Anthony Black, Grady Dick, Cason Wallace, Ausar Thompson as more likely to go outside the top 10.

EvanZ wrote:

CptCrunch wrote:

Village Idiot wrote:I'll go with Whitmore. Black hole offensively and a bit undersized. I can see Coulibaly moving past him pushing Whitmore outside the top 10. Can also see some team picking Lively ahead of him.

Hard disagree on Whitmore. Think he is fall proof really until 8 or so.

Yes he is a bit small for a PF. Sure he is a blackhole on offense, but his outlier talents on offense is simply too much in terms of self creation, being above rim player and absolutely stellar priors high school makes him a can't miss prospect.

I don't really see any "outlier" talents. Honestly he kind of just reminds me of Okoro without the passing.

The one thing that sticks with me about Whitmore is how better he was from NBA 3 distance at Villanova than Brandon Miller at Alabama. If he's a knockout 3 point shooter in the NBA, I'm fully on board the train... But I'm not convinced he is or will be, and nobody else seems to be either.

If he wasn't one of the top high school prospects in the country, would he be a projected lottery pick right now?

treefi wrote:

EvanZ wrote:

CptCrunch wrote:
Hard disagree on Whitmore. Think he is fall proof really until 8 or so.

Yes he is a bit small for a PF. Sure he is a blackhole on offense, but his outlier talents on offense is simply too much in terms of self creation, being above rim player and absolutely stellar priors high school makes him a can't miss prospect.

I don't really see any "outlier" talents. Honestly he kind of just reminds me of Okoro without the passing.

The one thing that sticks with me about Whitmore is how better he was from NBA 3 distance at Villanova than Brandon Miller at Alabama. If he's a knockout 3 point shooter in the NBA, I'm fully on board the train... But I'm not convinced he is or will be, and nobody else seems to be either.

If he wasn't one of the top high school prospects in the country, would he be a projected lottery pick right now?

Please give me the stats on this. How many attempts are we talking here? I'm not sure why I'm even bothering with this, because even if every 3 he took this season was an NBA 3 it would still be a small sample.

Whitmore can guard SG/SF. I'm not sure why people keep calling him a PF.

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I have a feeling both Thompsons fall out of the Top-10.

EvanZ wrote:

treefi wrote:

EvanZ wrote:
I don't really see any "outlier" talents. Honestly he kind of just reminds me of Okoro without the passing.

The one thing that sticks with me about Whitmore is how better he was from NBA 3 distance at Villanova than Brandon Miller at Alabama. If he's a knockout 3 point shooter in the NBA, I'm fully on board the train... But I'm not convinced he is or will be, and nobody else seems to be either.

If he wasn't one of the top high school prospects in the country, would he be a projected lottery pick right now?

Please give me the stats on this. How many attempts are we talking here? I'm not sure why I'm even bothering with this, because even if every 3 he took this season was an NBA 3 it would still be a small sample.

There isn't a lot of evidence that Brandon Miller is some elite shooter really. The stat just isn't there. There is a good case to say that he went on a mini hot streak for 15 games mid-season then regressed to his true skill.

In fact, if we plotted Whitmore against Miller and looked at their backwards looking 7 game rolling averages, we can also see a Whitmore bump in the middle of the season. During late season against better teams, they should about the same from 3. Miller is years and half older than Whitmore. I'm just going to guess that Whitmore will match Miller's current shooting skills in about a year. Blah blah, you can tell me about shot volume; that's why we are looking at rolling 7 game averages to pool sample sizes together. Whitmore's credible interval band actually has a higher center than B. Miller's really near the end of the season.

Blue = rolling 7 game average fitted with locally weighted smoothing
Red = 80% Bayesian credible interval with a diffuse prior (an estimate of a player's true skill based on recent performance). This is over the whole season from all shots up to the game listed.



Here is a bonus plot for our boy A. Black vs his closest competitor Cason Wallace, who might mistakently be taken above him. But at least Cason is a good PG prospect. Cason literally went on to become a brick lord late in the season. When a player's game performance enters regions outside of interval, just indicates outlier performance, in Cason's case outlier bad performance on very small volumes.

This lottery is a complete crapshoot. If the rumor mill is to believed, a lot of these teams don't like the players in the mid-lottery range anymore than guys in teens to twenties. That's not normal. If trades aren't made, could be some surprises. I still think Dereck Lively II is an elite rim protector/rim runner and not going in the lottery is stupid. The same way it was that Walker Kessler didn't go lotto. Teams still need size on the back-line.

As an example, if I was Washington and I really was bringing back Kuzma, Beal and Porzingis, then I would take Lively to pair him with Gafford as a 1-2 punch at the 5. I think that actually improves the roster. Same with Indiana as Turner can play away from the basket out to the 3. Lively is a switchable big.

Just seems really weird that because Duke didn't know how to use him, he is being penalized for it. He looked elite at guarding the rim to me.

Chuck Everett wrote:This lottery is a complete crapshoot. If the rumor mill is to believed, a lot of these teams don't like the players in the mid-lottery range anymore than guys in teens to twenties. That's not normal. If trades aren't made, could be some surprises. I still think Dereck Lively II is an elite rim protector/rim runner and not going in the lottery is stupid. The same way it was that Walker Kessler didn't go lotto. Teams still need size on the back-line.

As an example, if I was Washington and I really was bringing back Kuzma, Beal and Porzingis, then I would take Lively to pair him with Gafford as a 1-2 punch at the 5. I think that actually improves the roster. Same with Indiana as Turner can play away from the basket out to the 3. Lively is a switchable big.

Just seems really weird that because Duke didn't know how to use him, he is being penalized for it. He looked elite at guarding the rim to me.

I expect a lot of teams to want to move because draft positions, team needs and talent left on the board won't align. I think teams don't like the talent anywhere except for at the top which is why they'll want to move down or out but I'm not seeing anyone who would be willing to move up that will pay the price to do so. Wizards have the perfect opportunity to blow it up since they'll lose Kuzma and Porzingis. Might as well trade Beal just to get out from under his contract (if anyone is willing which I doubt) so they can play their kids and try to develop them. If none of them can play it won't matter because the goal is to tank anyway. If I was a Wizards fan I'd be more excited about the prospect of watching Avdija, Kispert, Davis and Lively than running it back as is. They really just have to finally embrace the tank. It could be a quick rebuild since they do potentially have some compelling talent.