RealGM

How confident are we that the Spurs actually make good picks at 4 and 8?

Obviously they crushed the 2023 Draft
1- Wemby
44- Sidy Cissoko - too early to know

2022 Draft- Out of 50 guys drafted they rank 47th, 49th and 50th in Vorp for Draft class
9- Sochan
20- Branham
25- Wesley

2021 Draft - gross
12- Primo
41- Wieskamp

2020 Draft- Good draft
11- Vassell
41- Tre Jones

2019 Draft
19- Luka Samanic- Miss
29- Keldon Johson- Hit

2018 Draft - Walker is 53rd in Vorp out of 57 guys drafted
18- Lonnie Walker

I know people will hate that I used Vorp, whether you love the stat hard to say these guys are exceeding expectations. So out of 9 first round picks really only 3 have been good and 1 of those is Wemby.

I feel you OP. But at the same time, most draft picks are busts, especially after the top 10. If you take Wemby out, the two picks this year will be the highest the Spurs have drafted since Tim Duncan. Some of these guys like the 2022 draft are too early to tell (they all just turned 21 in the last two weeks) and Keldon/Jones are pretty good picks for where they were drafted. 2021 really does look bad though.

Spurs draft strategy will obviously shift as well I assume since now they are drafting for fit around Wembanyama rather than drafting someone with a low floor that they believe has a star potential. I think they'll nail at least one of the picks, but time will tell

Go back to 2016 and you add Derrick White at 29 and Dejounte Murray at 29. A lot of this is due to sample size, taking high ceiling low floor players in 2022, and Primo being problematic. The Spurs may whiff on the draft, but that happens to all teams. Historically they've been better than most.

For as bad as their drafting seemingly has been, the only guy who didn't have an NBA contract of that group this season is Wieskamp (I believe he played for the Mavs' G-League team). Even guys like Metu and Eubanks who had NBA contracts and they were second rounders/undrafted. If you go through the Spurs program, they tend to teach you things that allow you to hang on in the league.

that's a 5/10 hit rate on only 3 lotto picks out of 10, and 4 are still tbd

is that supposed to be bad?

clyde21 wrote:that's a 5/10 hit rate on only 3 lotto picks out of 10, and 4 are still tbd

is that supposed to be bad?

You have low standards for teams. That’s pretty awful for a good team tbh.

clyde21 wrote:that's a 5/10 hit rate on only 3 lotto picks out of 10, and 4 are still tbd

is that supposed to be bad?

I have them hitting 3/9 first rounders here, so not sure where you are getting 5 hits.

I assume Lonnie Walker, but idk if that is a hit. Spurs let him walk after his rookie deal for 6 mil and then this year he played on a vet min and wasn't even a full time rotation piece.

Sochan looks bad
Wesley, Branham, Samanic, Primo are Bouknight/Kai Jones levels of bad

They very well could crush this draft, but after looking at this I don't have a crazy high level of certainty. Overall I think the media is way too high on the Spurs/Wemby short-term. They could add two very solid rotation guys at 4/8 and still be one of the worst 7 teams this upcoming year IMO. All this talk about Wemby is ready to go now feels really fast when they might only have 1 other real top 7 playoff guy on the roster in Vassell.

Keldon is meh, seems like they know it and are ready to move him.
Collins contract was bad.
Sochan just isn't good at anything to really have a real role.

Even if they get Garland in a deal I don't think they are a real playoff team let alone going to be able to win a series in the next year or 2 unless they absolutely smash this draft.

JMAC3 wrote:

clyde21 wrote:that's a 5/10 hit rate on only 3 lotto picks out of 10, and 4 are still tbd

is that supposed to be bad?

I have them hitting 3/9 first rounders here, so not sure where you are getting 5 hits.

I assume Lonnie Walker, but idk if that is a hit. Spurs let him walk after his rookie deal for 6 mil and then this year he played on a vet min and wasn't even a full time rotation piece.

Sochan looks bad
Wesley, Branham, Samanic, Primo are Bouknight/Kai Jones levels of bad

Lonnie at 18 is a hit, Keldon's a hit, Vassell/Tre are hits, Wemby obviously a hit...that's 5/10 from the players you posted, with 4 TBDs. even if you want to slot the TBDs as bad picks that's still 5/10 on only 3 lotto picks. the Primo stuff no one could've really seen coming either tbh.

how many teams have better track records with only 3 lotto picks during this timespan?

JMAC3 wrote:They very well could crush this draft, but after looking at this I don't have a crazy high level of certainty. Overall I think the media is way too high on the Spurs/Wemby short-term. They could add two very solid rotation guys at 4/8 and still be one of the worst 7 teams this upcoming year IMO. All this talk about Wemby is ready to go now feels really fast when they might only have 1 other real top 7 playoff guy on the roster in Vassell.

Keldon is meh, seems like they know it and are ready to move him.
Collins contract was bad.
Sochan just isn't good at anything to really have a real role.

Even if they get Garland in a deal I don't think they are a real playoff team let alone going to be able to win a series in the next year or 2 unless they absolutely smash this draft.

I'm starting to think that is their plan given the hype around the 2025 draft and the fact they could have up to 4 picks in the first round (more likely 2-3).

Based on what we have seen thus far... if I were profiling the Spurs team as to what roles guys should be playing this is their current roster.

PG- (empty) - Tre Jones
SG- Vassell
SF- (empty)
PF- (empty)- Sochan
C - Wemby- Collins

Waive Devonte, Traded Keldon, Branham/Wesley 11th men..

If they land 1 starter at 4 and a decent backup at 8 this team still sucks.
Which is fine because Wemby is him and they will be good, probably when he is 25-26 like most young stars in the NBA.

Spurs should really be cashing these picks in for win now vets. Wemby is only gonna be on a rookie contract once. They can reboot once he signs a supermax. This slow play **** is going to end up biting them.

Big J wrote:Spurs should really be cashing these picks in for win now vets. Wemby is only gonna be on a rookie contract once. They can reboot once he signs a supermax. This slow play **** is going to end up biting them.

I disagree, the Cavs did that after they drafted LeBron and they never had the talent to get over the top. You don't take short cuts to success when your superstar player is as young as Wembanyama and your roster lacks talent.

LofJ wrote:

Big J wrote:Spurs should really be cashing these picks in for win now vets. Wemby is only gonna be on a rookie contract once. They can reboot once he signs a supermax. This slow play **** is going to end up biting them.

I disagree, the Cavs did that after they drafted LeBron and they never had the talent to get over the top. You don't take short cuts to success when your superstar player is as young as Wembanyama and your roster lacks talent.

That's because the Cavs were incompetent. This is the only opportunity that Wemby will have in his entire career to play alongside 2 max guys. Once he gets his extension the team will be capped out. If they try to play the long game and screw up a couple of these picks it would be a disaster because Wemby alone will probably get this team to play in territory next year.

Big J wrote:

LofJ wrote:

Big J wrote:Spurs should really be cashing these picks in for win now vets. Wemby is only gonna be on a rookie contract once. They can reboot once he signs a supermax. This slow play **** is going to end up biting them.

I disagree, the Cavs did that after they drafted LeBron and they never had the talent to get over the top. You don't take short cuts to success when your superstar player is as young as Wembanyama and your roster lacks talent.

That's because the Cavs were incompetent. This is the only opportunity that Wemby will have in his entire career to play alongside 2 max guys. Once he gets his extension the team will be capped out. If they try to play the long game and screw up a couple of these picks it would be a disaster.

And what max player(s) are the Spurs getting for picks 4 and 8 in a bad draft? This kind of stuff is so easy for fans to say, but it's not as easy to execute. This isn't a video game.

I haven't heard from a Spurs fan that's excited to shed draft picks for Trae Young.

BigGargamel wrote:

Big J wrote:

LofJ wrote:
I disagree, the Cavs did that after they drafted LeBron and they never had the talent to get over the top. You don't take short cuts to success when your superstar player is as young as Wembanyama and your roster lacks talent.

That's because the Cavs were incompetent. This is the only opportunity that Wemby will have in his entire career to play alongside 2 max guys. Once he gets his extension the team will be capped out. If they try to play the long game and screw up a couple of these picks it would be a disaster.

And what max player(s) are the Spurs getting for picks 4 and 8 in a bad draft? This kind of stuff is so easy for fans to say, but it's not as easy to execute. This isn't a video game.

I haven't heard from a Spurs fan that's excited to shed draft picks for Trae Young.

Easy, package them and some future 1sts for KD or Booker and then sign Paul George in free agency. That team is the odds on favorite to win the chip next year if that happens.

Big J wrote:

BigGargamel wrote:

Big J wrote:
That's because the Cavs were incompetent. This is the only opportunity that Wemby will have in his entire career to play alongside 2 max guys. Once he gets his extension the team will be capped out. If they try to play the long game and screw up a couple of these picks it would be a disaster.

And what max player(s) are the Spurs getting for picks 4 and 8 in a bad draft? This kind of stuff is so easy for fans to say, but it's not as easy to execute. This isn't a video game.

I haven't heard from a Spurs fan that's excited to shed draft picks for Trae Young.

Easy, package them and some future 1sts for KD or Booker and then sign Paul George in free agency. That team is the odds on favorite to win the chip next year if that happens.

Easy… this isn’t 2k ser

Pattycakes wrote:

Big J wrote:

BigGargamel wrote:
And what max player(s) are the Spurs getting for picks 4 and 8 in a bad draft? This kind of stuff is so easy for fans to say, but it's not as easy to execute. This isn't a video game.

I haven't heard from a Spurs fan that's excited to shed draft picks for Trae Young.

Easy, package them and some future 1sts for KD or Booker and then sign Paul George in free agency. That team is the odds on favorite to win the chip next year if that happens.

Easy… this isn’t 2k ser

When you have Wemby & Pop it makes it a helluva lot easier.

Big J wrote:

BigGargamel wrote:

Big J wrote:
That's because the Cavs were incompetent. This is the only opportunity that Wemby will have in his entire career to play alongside 2 max guys. Once he gets his extension the team will be capped out. If they try to play the long game and screw up a couple of these picks it would be a disaster.

And what max player(s) are the Spurs getting for picks 4 and 8 in a bad draft? This kind of stuff is so easy for fans to say, but it's not as easy to execute. This isn't a video game.

I haven't heard from a Spurs fan that's excited to shed draft picks for Trae Young.

Easy, package them and some future 1sts for KD or Booker and then sign Paul George in free agency. That team is the odds on favorite to win the chip next year if that happens.

Yeah, great suggestion, trading for KD and Paul George sure worked great for Suns and Clippers. Why not add Harden to the list since we're at it?
PS: are you a Spurs fan? I somehow suspect not...

To the point of the thread, yeah, Spurs drafting hasn't been stellar, but other than the 2021 draft (i.e., Primo), what obvious players did they miss?
2018: Brunson? Every team in the league passed on him.
2019? Not an obvious choice
2020: Vassell was one of the better picks available
2021: Yeah, the obvious mistake, pick should have been Sengun and most of us knew that.
2022: Sochan, Branham,Wesley. Sochan catches a lot of flak, but turned 21 just 10 days ago, has proved he can play stellar defense against some of the best players in the league (Luka, SGA, etc) and his shooting is bad but has yet made strides (was a sub 60% FT shooter entering the league, now he's almost 80%, first season shot 3s in the mid 20s, last season about 31%). Save the advanced stats when the Spurs actually aren't tanking and put together a competent roster, in the meantime I wouldn't trade him for anyone drafted after him (Johnny Davis, Dieng, Duren, Agbaji, Mark Williams, AJ Griffin, Tari Eason, Dalen Terry, Laravia, Braun, Kessler, Roddy, Beauchamp, Wendell Moore, Jovic, Baldwin, etc...) other than Jalen Williams, forwards that can guard 1-4 and do a bit of everything don't grow on trees. As for Branham and Wesley, early returns don't look good but there's maybe 3 players drafted behind them that I actually give a damn about (Braun? Kessler? Nembhard?)
So I agree they've made a couple mistakes but nothing major, this draft is where they'll prove what their scouting is made of, if good old savvy Spurs is a thing of the past of they can still be trusted to make good decisions.