I've put together some spreadsheets on NCAA prospects for this draft. Here I've put together some stats on guys who could plausibly play PG, including some real stretches. In addition to the big time prospects who are sure to get drafted, I've included a number of more obscure guys who will go in the 50s if they get drafted at all, to give a broader look at the class. At the end I'll talk about each player individually.
Vitals
I've sorted by actual height, but also posted the guys' listed heights for comparison. People tend to anchor to whatever height they heard first and keep thinking of a guy as being big or small even after we get combine measurements. For instance, Isaiah Collier is a full inch shorter than Zyon Pullin, and Tristan Newton is 2.25 inches shorter than his teammate Stephon Castle. Weight is highlighted red or green relative to the guy's height, and age is highlighted relative to the guy's class. There are a lot of super seniors in this draft, so tons of these seniors are quite old for prospects. Difference is wingspan minus height, which I think is a bit more relative to evaluating a guy's size than just one or the other.
Overall Offense
Good Shot % is just the % of shots that were 3s or at the rim. The idea is that if a guy is scoring inefficiently, it could be because they have bad shot selection, a fixable problem, or worse, that they can't create efficient looks in the first place. Net ORTG is just the individual player's ORTG minus the team's, to give a rough idea of their offensive impact. BPM is another offensive impact stat from Sports-reference, and OBPR is a fancy adjusted plus-minus offensive impact stat. Since that's the most complete one, I've sorted the table by that. Generally, upperclassmen do well in these impact stats relative underclassmen.
Attacking the Basket
Here I want to know who can successfully create their own shots at the rim. Shot creation is a pretty vital skill obviously, since the threat of it puts pressure on the defense, forces guys to move around, and therefore opens up opportunities to pass the ball for open shots. To this end, it's important to see not just who's got a high FG% at the rim, and who's taking most of their shots there, but are their makes at the rim unassisted. Only a handful of guys here can affirmatively say yes to all of this: Collier, Jones, Mitchell, Simpson, Carter and East. Even then, Jones and Mitchell have the huge advantage of playing at mid and low majors, respectively, so their success at the rim has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Now it isn't the end of the world if you don't stand out here, because some of this is always a result of a guy's role on the team. That said, if you're a legit PG, you should be initiating the offense and not being on the receiving end of someone else's passes. Spencer/Castle and Sheppard were deferring to Dillingham and Newton here, but that still raises at least some questions.
I also list Free Throw rate as FTA/2PA to isolate their ability to draw fouls from how many 3s they're taking, and I list offensive rebounds per40 as additional context - sometimes a guy's unassisted % is inflated because they're getting putbacks rather than creating off the dribble (like Castle, yikes).
Ignoring all else, rimFG% is still important on its own. Pullin's horrific inability to finish at the rim is basically disqualifying for the NBA, and Dillingham and Carrington fans should be feeling pretty nervous.
Shooting
I've sorted by Career 3P% since so many of these guys are upperclassmen. This is all pretty intuitive at this point - if a guy can't hit his free throws his 3 point shot probably won't hold up (Collier, Carter, Burden). If he's taking a ton of 3s that's a good sign even if his % isn't great (Carrington, Carter, Newton). If he's a senior and he still can't shoot, assume he isn't going to learn to shoot (Newton, Jones, Beekman, Nelson, McCullar, Shead, Burden). And if they're % of makes assisted is very low, then give them a break if their 3P% is lower since they're taking shots off the dribble more, which in theory are harder to make (Carrington).
We've got a number of absolutely elite shooters in this draft, and some that only came around as shooters as upperclassmen. I'd worry about the latter guys not holding up as great shooters for the same reason you apply a discount to any other upperclassmen stats, so keep an eye on East, Carter and Mitchell especially as guys who shot well this season but might not be all that great at it in the league.
Passing
This is of course, the #1 job. AST%/USG% mostly tells you if a guy is shoot first or pass first. A/TO is a very predictive stat for if a player is going to be good (regardless of position) and is a decent proxy for BBall IQ. You want an A/TO over 2, and 1.5 is basically the Mendoza line for minimum viable rate at the position. That's bad news for Collier, Carter and McCain, three guys touted as first round picks, as well as East and Nelson, marginal guys. Also not great for Mitchell and Mintz either, who just barely make the cutoff. In the NBA you won't want any of those guys as your lead ballhandlers. On the other hand, Spencer and Pullin has insane A/TOs, and McCullar's stands out as pretty elite for a score-first player. Beyond them there are a number of guys with pretty elite numbers who look ready to run an offense for you, and plenty more guys who don't stand out but are solidly competent at the basic duty of every PG.
Defense
I've listed a number of stats here, but I'm mostly just interested in steals per40 and DBPR. Steals, along with A/TO are the other excellent general predictor of whether or not a guy will be any good - unless you play the Syracuse zone defense, which inflates steals rates like crazy (Mintz). As with A/To, 1.5 is where I like to draw the line of viable/not viable. Blocks are a nice way to measure 'effective' height (Carter and Sheppard play a lot bigger than they actually are), same with defensive rebounds, though some small guys just have a knack for it (Simpson, McCain).
We're willing to accept that most PGs won't be impact players on defense in the NBA, and probably will be negatives. But at the extreme ends it's worth paying attention - Carrington, Dillingham, McCain, Mintz and Mitchell could all struggle to stay on the floor if this advanced plus/minus is getting an accurate read of their defensive (lack of) prowess. Especially Carrington - what a hideously low steal rate. McCain and Mitchell too, the latter once you discount his numbers for playing in the Big West. On the other hand, Tyler Kolek and Reed Sheppard look surprisingly stout on defense. Everyone above them have real concerns about what they bring on offense, but might be able to carve out roles and defensive aces. Castle stands out in a bad way with how few steals he collected in spite of the good impact stats.
Overall Impact
Now I'm not sure how much I believe any of these are predictive of NBA success, but it's better than nothing. Most unexpected overperformer here is Cam Spencer, and most unexpected underperformer is Ajay Mitchell. Neither are really PGs but so it goes.
Point Guards – Maestros
This is the group of guys you’re looking at if you’re primarily worried about having someone handle the ball and run offense. They controlled all aspects of their teams’ offenses, never turn the ball over, and constantly set up their teammates to succeed. All of these guys have sky-high BBall IQs. Consequently won't talk too much about their passing since all of them are elite at it.
Tyler Kolek
Average size. Senior offensive centerpiece. Pass first but can score. Gets to the rim a lot, avoids bad shots, but not an efficient finisher and doesn’t get free throws to make up for it. Very dangerous but not super-star shooter. Impeccable, elite passer, dominates the ball and doesn’t make many mistakes. TO rate is only high because he’s finishing every possession. High steal rate all four years of his college career gives you hope that he has enough speed/length/savvy to survive in the NBA. Overall impacts stats like him more than I expected. He's probably doomed to being a bench player due to his inability to really effectively pressure the rim, but enough shooting/passing/smarts to potentially make it as a good back-up guard a la Monte Morris.
Tristen Newton
Veteran pass-first PG and national champ. Still not a good scorer despite his advanced age. Ludicrous ability to draw fouls and oddly good at offensive rebounding like his teammate Castle. Maybe a team should bring him in just to teach everyone else his tricks. Poor 3-point shooter and always has been despite excellent FT% and despite taking more than half of his shots from beyond the ark. At this point he is who is he is, a non-shooter. One would figure that given his poor 3P% that he’d attack the basket more – the fact that he didn’t suggests he’s not really a natural at getting to the rim, but it could also just be caused by his role on the team – he had to leave room for Castle and Clingan by the basket. Absolutely elite passing numbers, though it helps a little when your team is stacked and guys are making shots. Terribly low steal rate, but at least he rebounds really well and was part of an elite defense. Probably a good guy to have around for his savvy and intelligence, but he’s not someone I expect to make a ton of contributions on the court. Not athletic enough, not a good enough scorer, not a good enough defender.
Reece Beekman
Passing wizard and defensive menace who just can’t score for **** despite being a senior. Short but with great length. Doesn’t do anything particularly well at the rim, mediocre finisher and can’t draw fouls or get offensive rebounds. Consistently poor 3P% over four years in school, low volume, he’s a certified non-shooter. Fantastic passing numbers but I can’t feel as great about his passing as I’d like given how bad the offense he lead was. Steal rate is top shelf, and Virigina of course was one of the best defenses in college basketball like it always is. As a senior you just can’t reasonably expect his scoring to suddenly get good enough for the NBA but his passing and defense are so good that you just want him to succeed.
Jamaal Shead
Speaking of guys who can’t score! Another undersized guard, but now without even the elite wingspan. At least Shead is very young for a senior, but even for a junior have a TS% under 50 is unacceptable. Shead at least was a bit more effective than Beekman when attacking the rim, finishing decently, not being assisted on his makes, collecting a surprising number of offensive rebounds, but on even lower volume – and given how poor his jump shot is, this wasn’t a choice, this must be a lack of ability to get there. Shead’s 3P% and FT% are basically the same as Beekmans, but his career 3P% dips under 30%. His passing numbers are also quite similar to Beekman’s, but better, especially since it actually resulted in an excellent team offense overall. Shead’s defensive numbers are also similarly elite to Beekman. As similar player's I'd prefer the guy who was part of an elite offense, but both of their scoring struggles will probably keep them off NBA rosters.
Zyon Pullin
Pullin is a bit of an oddball here. He’s the biggest of this group of guards. He’s a lower usage guy too. He’s a horrendous finisher – being below 50% at the rim is pretty unacceptable, almost no one makes in the NBA finishing like that, even with a decent free throw rate. Pullin shot well across the board and throughout his career, so it’s a bit puzzling that it was such a small portion of his offense. Pullin doesn’t generate that many assists per40, but his A/To is absurdly high. Even among a group of elite passers 3.7 is crazy good. Just horrific defense stats across the board though. A steal rate that low is basically disqualifying for a small guard. Pullin is probably just not athletic enough to hack it. Overall he takes way too many bad shots for a guy this old, but elite passing+shooting and solid size is an alright foundation.
Isaiah Stevens
Second smallest guy here, good wingspan hardly makes up for it. Catastrophic numbers at the rim, cannot get there, finish, or draw contact. Excellent shooter however, probably should have taken half of his shots from deep instead of just a third. Disappointingly few steals, expected low number of blocks and rebounds. Elite shooting+elite passing means he’ll rip up the G-League, but he’s probably too small and athletically/defensively limited to make it in the NBA.
Terrell Burden
The smallest guy here. Compared to Steven he’s a much higher volume guy with better shot selection, but it didn’t do him much good – 52TS% is awful for a senior, especially when playing at a mid-major. Unlike a lot of these guys Burden did attack the rim pretty relentlessly despite his size, and drew a bunch of fouls too. However, he was still ineffective overall making just a hair over half of his shots at the rim. It makes sense though, because he can’t shoot. He’s below 70% from the line for his career and below 30% from 3. He’s also got the least impressive A/To of this group of guys. His steals and blocks are good not great, but obviously a guy his size is always going to be a liability on defense, and he is. Not a draftable prospect at this point.
Regular old Point Guards
These are guys who are competent passers who you are perfectly comfortable with letting run the offense, but aren't the sort of transcendent, mistake-free passing wizards who populated the previous section. Obviously this is a judgement call, I think my selections are all defensible.
Reed Sheppard
A bit small, poor wingspan and skinny. Ultra efficient scorer from all areas of the court, but on low usage and high turnover rate. Massive positive impact on offense. Doesn’t drive to the rim much but nearly all of his makes are unassisted and converts at the rim at the best rate in the class. Average at drawing contact. Absurdly good shooter. Overall pretty good passer, bit turnover prone but A/To is good. Super elite steal and block rate. Net positive on defense in spite of his short arms. All the most important indicators are screaming that he’ll be good. I'm banging the table for the Pistons to draft him and am confident he'll be the best guy in this class.
Rob Dillingham
Painfully skinny. Ball dominant scorer but not an especially efficient one. Bad at attacking the basket in all facets - poor finisher, assisted at a relatively high rate for a PG, doesn’t draw contact or collect offensive rebounds. Very good 3-point shooter - not special, but very good. Not a standout passer but good enough for the position, not at risk of being a combo-guard. Good amount of steals but almost no blocks and not much defensive rebounding, which is as you’d expect for a guy that small and skinny. Overall a very poor defender though. A good 3 ball and solid passing can get you somewhere as a guard, but his inability to attack the basket effectively just rules him out for being a star that some people think he can be, and that defense and frame could keep him off the floor entirely. Got to be a bit higher on him as a Kentucky guard at least, but I'm lower on him than consensus.
KJ Simpson
Kinda your typical upperclassman scoring PG. Smaller than I realized, on of the smallest guys in the class. Very efficient offensive player. Good finisher though the % of his rim makes that are assisted is a tad high for a PG. Very good shooter, always been excellent from the free throw line but not always from the long line. Not a super high-volume passer, more of a scorer, but takes great care of the basketball so his A/To is excellent. Steals and rebound numbers are solid, rebounds well for his size. Simpson has the makings of a competent backup PG, but there is a lot of competition for those spots and his small size might keep him buried on the bench.
Carlton Carrington
A more typical freshman guard with mostly bad numbers. Good size but not very athletic. Horrific at attacking the basket, didn’t get there at all and could not convert. Took an inordinate number of tough off-the-dribble looks from deep and consequently shot poorly, but shot well from the FT line so there’s certainly reason to believe that he’s a solid 3 point shooter in normal circumstances. Passing numbers are solid if unspectacular. Oddly good defensive rebounder but I don’t recall a PG prospect getting less than 1 steal per40 before, that’s worst in class by some margin and one of the worst I remember for this position. The lack of athleticism really shows on both sides of the ball. I wouldn’t have any interest in him if he wasn’t so young, but you have to grade him on at least a bit of a curve since he isn't even 19 yet, similar to GG Jackson last year. He's a big guard who can pass well and shoot off the dribble a bit, but I don't think his age is the problem, just the athleticism.
Combo Guards
These are guys who have just enough passing chops/self creation to play PG but aren't really lead ballhandler material.
Stephon Castle
Tall, legitimate wing size. Lower end of usage and scoring as expected given how stacked the team is and how they run offense at UConn. Does a crazy amount of work at the rim for a PG but is assisted on nearly a majority of his makes, like he’s a finisher not a creator, also not an exceptional finisher or foul-drawer. Bad shooter, has been since high school. Can at least make his free throws but not at the rate that makes you feel good about his long range shot. Expect him to remain a non-shooter in the NBA. Doesn’t run much offense himself, not generating a ton of assists, at least does not turn it over. Blocked a good number of shots as you’d hope for a tall guard, but doesn’t get a lot of steals. Good A/To rate, so if you think he can be a full time PG then you at least have some intrigue over about a potential 6’6” PG, but if not then none of these numbers inspire excitement. Generally, real PGs generate their own offense. Castle didn’t, but he shared the floor with so many other elite passers as part of a finely-tuned offense that I guess they couldn’t justify leaving the ball in his hands and having him generate offense. That’s an excuse but not a positive. If he isn’t a primary ball handler, and his jump shot doesn’t magically become decent, you’re left with a defensive wing who intelligently moves the ball and nothing else, which is not a great archetype full of examples of contributing NBA players. Even with his defense, I'm worried about the lack of steals. I would not be eager to take a chance on Castle myself.
Isaiah Collier
Sturdy build but not tall or long as was advertised. Productive but inefficient. Gets to the rim, draws contact and finishes well. Bad shooter, doesn’t take many 3s and is the only guy in the class below 70% from the line too so no reason to be hopeful about him becoming an acceptable shooter. Terrible A/To rate, well below the Mendoza line for PGs, just too TO prone. Very good steal rate but terrible defensive rebounder and defender overall. His team sucked and his impact stats aren’t great. High steal rate and very good ability to pressure the rim gives you something to work with, but it’s hard to see a future for a PG who you can’t rely on to run the offense and can’t shoot. Developmental project but with some upside. I’d be happy to let some other team take a chance on him.
Ajay Mitchell
Upper classmen scoring guard with alright size, but from a mid-major. Scored at will in the Big West, super-efficient despite taking lots of long 2s - his efficiency could improve with better shot selection. Very, very strong in all aspects of attacking the basket, and also shot well from 3 this year. Another guy who always made his FTs but had to learn to hit 3s, doesn’t take as many off the dribble as you’d like. Also more of a combo-guard than real PG, but just barely acceptable A/To. Steals/blocks/DRB numbers are all solid but you’d like to see them be higher given that he’s at a mid-major. The top line stuff looks pretty, but when you see he's not a great career shooter, discount his rim numbers and steals for playing at a mid major, suddenly everything is kind of marginal. I don't think he'll be anything special in the NBA, but he's probably playable.
Judah Mintz
Older sophomore and still terribly skinny. Volume scorer. Attacks the basket a lot, mostly because he can’t shoot, not because he's great at it. Ability to draw fouls salvages his efficiency a bit but he still isn’t a good finisher. Takes a lot of bad shots, majority of his few makes from deep are assisted. Between that and his okay FT% there’s lots of room for improvement in terms of scoring efficiency but there’s nothing particularly good besides his ability to draw contact. Passing numbers are clearly those of a combo-guard and not a real PG. Elite steal rate, but that’s typical for Syracuse and I can't take it seriously. The other defense numbers are poor. I don’t think there’s much reason to be interested in Mintz.
Dillon Jones
Midmajor bowling ball, a cross between a PG and a PF. Constantly outmuscling people to the rim, finishing and drawing fouls. Doesn’t take many 3s because he can’t hit them still, but is a very good FT shooter. There’s room to develop his jump shot in theory but most guys who can’t shoot by their senior season’s juts can’t shoot 3 and won’t suddenly be able to in the NBA. Generated a lot of assists as part of dominating the ball, and the A/To is good for a secondary ballhandler, but not great for an actual PG. Got a ton of steals, bizarre inability to block shots despite getting nearly 10 defensive rebounds per 40. Got to apply a discount to all of his numbers since he played at Webber State, but there’s certainly the makings of an NBA player in there with his strength, ball handling and passing.
Kevin McCullar
Overall inefficient scorer despite being a senior. Lots of assisted makes at the rim, though he did at least draw a good amount of fouls. Just can’t hit his 3s, and don’t figure he’ll suddenly get good at them. Worst FT% of this group of guards, although 75.6% isn’t actually bad. PG-esque A/To rate, but real PGs create their own shots too and shoot less when they’re only at 56 TS%. Defense looks like a real positive. Odd mix of playmaking and defense, and lots of scoring without a ton of shot creating, not sure what to do with him, but he's big, plays defense and is smart, so I think he's worth drafting, let some coach see what they can do with him.
Trey Alexander
Another skinny guard, but with good length and also the youngest upperclassman. Inefficient scorer who took lots of bad shots, but does have some ability as a playmaker. Shockingly bad net ORTG. Cannot finish at the rim, draw fouls, or crash the glass at all. Shot badly from 3 this year despite not taking an inordinate number of shots off the dribble and shooting well from the line. Not super impressive from 3 for his career, but his track record is at least alright. Good playmaker, might look more like a guy you could have run the offensive if he didn’t take so many bad shots. Bad steal rate means his defense is suspect. Can’t be that inefficient a scorer and expect to see a lot of playing time in the NBA. I think he's mostly just okay at some things an not really impressive anywhere, I'm not interested in him.
Sean East II
As a short senior without plus length, East is going to have an uphill battle. He was a very efficient scorer his senior year. Solidly effective when attacking the basket and an absolute menace pulling up from deep. East has always been a good FT shooter but only started knocking down 3s recently, with a poor career 3P%. Notably, 3s were a very small % of his offense for a guy who shot so well off the dribble this year, suggesting he probably shot a bit over his head this year. East unfortunately does not have real PG skills as a passer and has terrible defensive numbers across the board, which sinks him at his size. Going to rip up the G-League though.
Jameer Nelson Jr.
Small but think with good length, old, and not really good at anything on offense. Poor finisher at the rim, poor 3 point shooter, A/To below the PG Mendoza line, but a defensive menace with an absurd steal rate and absurd-for-his-size block rate. If he just had one thing he could hang his hat on offensively I could see him making it in the NBA, but you can’t be below average at everything there as a senior and still make it.
Not actually point guards
I decided that these guys do not have the requisite shot creation+passing to play PG in the NBA, but they got included among PGs for various reasons.
Devin Carter
High volume scorer on acceptable efficiency. Very good at attacking the basket, very good knack for finishing through contact. His shooting is marginal, poor career %s but okay this season. Lacking when it comes to actual PG skills. Pretty bad A/To and low actual volume of assists, really a stretch to play him at PG. Absolute stud on defense, very productive. Main concern is that he wasn’t really an effective scorer until his junior season and just isn’t a real PG, but given that he’s a defensive menace, I think he has just enough scoring punch to stay on the court so long as you can pair him with a bigger player who can run the offense for him.
Jared McCain
McCain is another guy in a long line of non-PGs who is sadly PG sized. Very old for a freshman. Efficient scorer as a freshman which is fairly notable even given that he’s sophomore aged. Oddly good offensive rebounder for his size and especially for a guy who relies on 3s as much as he does. Doesn’t attack the rim much but does alright when he can get there. Elite shooter, though didn’t make a ton off the dribble relatively speaking. Straight up not a PG when it comes to passing, not even close. Only positive thing to be said is that he doesn’t turn it over much, but that’s usually true of guys who are primarily spot up shooters. Low steal and block rate, doesn’t look like he will contribute at all on defense. He’d be interesting if he was 6’5” as he’d be a solid floor spacer, but at his size you again will need a bigger guy to be the real PG. There are plenty of guys out there who can shoot but don't contribute on defense and aren't that big in the world. I fail to see what makes McCain really special.
Pelle Larsson
Solid size, good efficiency but for the turnovers, low volume scorer, good passer. Converted at the rim a lot but mostly with the help of others. Excellent shooter for his long career, but again, never creates his own shots. Passing numbers are excellent for a SG, passable for a PG, except PGs have to be able to create their own shot as part of initiating the offense. Defense also looks bad, numbers here make it clear he’s not a guy you’re moving up a position. Seems like a Swiss-army knife who plays well with others on offense but who you’d have to hide on defense, kind of a senior guard version of Furphy. Marginal role-player since even NBA role players showed more shot-creation in college.
Cam Spencer
Very old, average height, ultra-efficient cog in the ultra-efficient offensive machine that was UConn this year. Basically never drove to the basket at all, didn’t need to, somewhat similar to Newton. Collected more offensive rebounds than you’d expect for a 6’4” guy who only shoots 3s. One of the best shooters in the class, was lights out from deep even at the offensively inept Rutgers team before he transferred to UConn. Absolutely bonkers, insanely high A/To rate for a guy who just shoots 3s, clearly a significant part of making that UConn offense hum. Very good steal rate and been part of two elite defenses (UConn and Rutgers). Overall a zero as a shot creator but plus at everything else. It could be a mirage, generated by the fact that he's a super senior on a stacked team with a great coach, but he looks like a prototypical glue guy/winning player. I'd be really eager to draft him if he was a tad bit taller and longer, as he'll be on the smaller end of SGs, but the results are good enough to pick him up at the bottom of the draft IMO.
