2024 Draft NCAA Wing Prospects Stats/Analysis

[Notanoob]

Previous thread on PGs
Stats drawn from Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, and Evan Miya. Points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks are all per 40 minutes.

Vitals

Since I’m including basically any plausible wing here there’s a wide range of sizes here. 6’4” in shoes is generally an acceptable height for SGs but Spencer and Jones aren’t very long either. Alexander is on the short side for the position but has an inordinately long wingspan. I listed Hinson and Ingram as potential PFs given the former’s weight and the latter’s terrible footspeed, but obviously they’d both be quite undersized for that position. Furphy and George could theoretically grow into being playable as PFs but are currently fairly skinny.

Age wise there are a ton of old seniors, but Isaiah Crawford, Dillon Jones and David Jones are all young for their college class. Christie is very young period. Justin Edwards and Kyshawn George are sophomore aged freshmen, which diminishes both their value.

Given that I already discussed Spencer, Larsson, Castle, Alexander, McCuller and Dillon Jones in the PG thread, I’ll avoid saying much more on them. They’re included here because they could plausibly play on the wing so it’s worth seeing how they add up compared to other wings.

Overall Offense

We have a wide range of roles played by these guys in college and therefore a wide range of basic stats. Freshman usually do poorly in impact stats compared to seniors for obvious reasons, I’m not too concerned by George, Christie and Furphy being rated low in them, but it is weird to see seniors down there and speaks poorly to their offensive game and NBA potential. Especially weird for floor spacers to not have a big positive offensive impact, looking at you Jaylen Wells. Knecht also doesn’t rate as high as one would expect here.

Attacking the basket

In this section you should see a bit of a sliding scale from more forward type players to more guard type players, mainly centered around their % assisted, with % of FGA at the rim being more a statement on whether or not the guy can shoot at all. I would be suspicious of any guy who isn’t shooting 60% at the rim, especially non-freshmen. Freshmen can at least be excused by still being skinny teenagers, but older guys have no excuses not to finish well – so be worried about Tyson, Daniels, Knecht, Flanigan, Ingram, Alexander, George and Wells. Daniels is especially disappointing given that he’s a good athlete playing in a weak conference.

In contrast to George and Walter, Furphy and Williams were excellent finishers. Williams showed at least some ability to create his own shot, while Furphy finished and drew fouls at freakish rates. Walter also apparently has an incredible knack for getting calls despite rarely driving to the hoop – if he can sustain that free throw rate he should quit settling for jumpers and drive like a maniac. Furphy was also an effective offensive rebounder for a skinny freshmen.

The real winner of this section is Shannon, as anyone who has watched him play would have guessed. One of the highest FTA/2PA I recall seeing, and excellent finishing. Despite his age this talent is very interesting. Other guys who were effective at creating their own shots at the basket include Isaiah Crawford, Dillon Jones, David Jones, Blake Hinson and Baylor Scheierman. Hinson and Shannon are really the only two guys who did this at a high volume however.

Among the group of guys who mostly aren’t creating their own shots, the guys who were most effective were Furphy, Brooks, Bridges, and Williams, as well as the previously discussed Larsson and McCullar.

Shooting

This is what a lot of you are here for. Lots of capable shooters in this class. Only Johnson, Flanigan, McCullar and Dillon Jones appear sure things to not be able to shoot in the league. Everyone else either shot well enough from the line or improved enough as seniors to be at least plausible. Hinson and Ingram are weird in that they’ve shot well from 3 but poorly from the line and have real track records, so it’s hard to say which one will be more predictive of their NBA shooting. Williams, Crawford, Daniels, Larsson and Tyson all are a bit low volume given their effectiveness, which calls into question how confident they are in their jumpers. Spencer, Wells, George, Christie, Scheierman, da Silva, Reeves, Knecht, and Bridges are sure to be good shooters in the NBA. Among them, take special note of Christie since he makes so many off the dribble.

Passing

Unsurprisingly, the guys I looked at as PGs are on top here, so leaving aside Larsson, Spencer, Alexander, Castle, McCullar and Dillon Jones, the standouts who are adding to the offense with their passing are Scheierman, Christie, and Miller. Ingram and Wells showed some good brains as low volume passers with good A/TOs. Tyson and Flanigan are alos too TO prone given how much they handled the ball. George clearly likes to pass but is currently very turnover prone. Anyone with an A/To below 1 who is aspiring to play on the wing is a problem however – bad news for Crawford, Williams, Brooks, Hinson, Daniels and David Jones. Walters and Knecht both barely scrape over the 1 assist per TO, and remain suspect. Shannon, Furphy and Edwards are all also pretty poor passers. A/To is also more than just an indicator of passing, it’s a generally good predictor of whether or not a guy is going to be good, so place extra weight on it when thinking about who will turn out.

Defense

Again, steals area great predictor of more than just defense, so they’re the most important number here – I consider less than 1 steal per40 to be a huge red flag for a wing. That’s another mark against Knecht, Williams, Christie, Wells, Brooks, Reeves and Hinson (yikes). Crawford Daniels and both Jones have elite steal rates, but clearly are benefiting from playing weaker competition, and I’d only expect Crawford to be a positive defender in the NBA.

I consider blocks to be a more of a ‘nice to have’ than something really important for wings, and I wouldn’t consider them too much for guys with poor steal rates. Rebounds and Blocks are worth considering not just for what they say about a guy’s defense, but how ‘big’ they play. Tall guys who don’t get defensive rebounds are a problem, and undersized guys who can rebound are more likely to be playable.

Oddly, a number of the guys evaluated as PGs are near the top of this list in DBRM – Dillon Jones is the lowest rated of that group of six and he’s near the middle of the pack. Scheieman somehow is the top wing of the remainder in the advanced plus/minus impact stat despite a bad steal rate. Presumably his elite defensive rebounding is having a real impact. Jones and Daniels also rebound at absurd levels, but are taking advantage of playing in low-major conferences. Ingram is the next best rated, with good steal/block/rebound rates as a consequence of his strength and absurdly long arms, but it’s still questionable if a guy as unathletic as him can make it in the NBA.

Hinson, Brooks, Reeves and Christie look to be unplayably-bad on defense.

Totals

Scheierman is apparently pretty good. Daniels is not. Christie, George and Furphy are probably going to take some time to come good. I’ll most leave these numbers to speak for themselves.

[Notanoob]

The Freshmen
Johnny Furphy

He is basically a tall guy who stands in the corner and occasionally cuts to the basket for a thunder-dunk. Insane finishing at the rim and foul-drawing. He basically doesn’t create shots at all, for himself or anyone else. Defense numbers look fine and he’s young. He has basically no upside to be a star player, but he will likely be a superb role player so long as someone can set him up. I don’t see much reason to expect him to fail to be a good role player, so that moves him up the board.

Kyshawn George

Another tall guy who can shoot but this time with playmaking upside. Granted he isn’t actually that good at creating his own shots right now, and it was pretty low usage, but his shooting numbers are better than Furphy’s and he gets the same number of steals and blocks. However, he is a year older than Furphy to have pretty similar stats and low usage. Tall guys who can shoot are going to be in demand and I think he can hack it on both ends, and he even has a little bit of upside as a passer.

Justin Edwards

The forgotten man of Kentucky’s class, Edwards is another underperforming over-ager. But he wasn’t terrible! He had solid %s from 3 and the free throw line, though he had 0 makes off the dribble. He was reasonably effective when he attacked the basket, aside from the complete inability to draw fouls. He had a decent steal rate even if he doesn’t look like a good defender. Only thing which you can’t say anything good for was his passing numbers, which were all poor but not catastrophic. He didn’t look like the guy people expected him to be coming out of high school, but it’s still plausible that he’s a competent shooter who brings just a little bit of defense and driving.

Cody Williams

Williams is a huge mixed bag. He’s tall and long but painfully thin. He shoots well from 3 but on low volume and a not great FT%. He’s very effective at the rim but is a terrible passer. He has great length but gets no steals. He’s tall but doesn’t rebound. I put a lot of weight on A/TO and steals, so I’m pretty pessimistic that he can play, but he’s young and played hurt, so I don’t blame people for hoping he turns out great.

Ja’Kobe Walter

I think he is a bit thin and undercooked right now. He’s inefficient on pretty low volume. His thinness seems to dissuade him from attacking the rim, which he does rarely, but he draws an insane number of fouls and is a very good offensive rebounder, at least for a guy who weighs 180. He primarily hung out around the perimeter and took 3s, but didn’t create his own looks or hit them at a particularly high rate. However, the high rate and good FT% suggest he’s probably a competent shooter. He did not pass the ball at all and showed no upside to make you think he will in the future. In contrast to his FT/2PA and ORB, his blocks and DRBs per40 do comport with his lack of muscle. He has a pretty bad steal rate to go with it, disappointing given he has a good wingspan and came into college touted as a 3 and D guy. Looking at these numbers I’m not sure I see what’s exciting unless you expect him to take huge strides after putting on some muscle when it comes to attacking the basket and for his 3P% to jump.

Cam Christie

He’s basically Just A Shooter. His jump shot is elite, and he clearly is a smart passer, but he was horrendously ineffective at the rim and has awful defensive numbers. This can be partially excused by his youth, and as one of the youngest guys available, he’s got lots of room to grow. That terrible FG% at the rim will probably always hold him back, but he could be really helpful at making an offense go.

[Notanoob]

Big Combo-Forwards

Tristan da Silva

He’s at least competent at everything. He can score inside alright, he’s okay at passing the ball, he’s a really good shooter, and he’s capable of defending either forward position. Sure, you don’t expect him to turn into more than your 4th option on offense, but he’s another guy who seems like a sure thing to be a decent player who’d fit in on any team trying to win a championship.

Jalen Bridges

Bridges is another strong role player with limited upside but a clear path to playing in the NBA. Proven shooter, good finisher at the rim, doesn’t make mistakes with the ball, competes on defense. If your team misses out on da Silva, Bridges is a pretty good substitute although he’s an inch and a half shorter.

Harrison Ingram

Ingram is a fun prospect to talk about, who isn’t like the other three guys in this section. On the one hand, he is strong, he has freakish length which he uses to pick up a ton of steals, blocks and boards on both ends, he shot well from 3 this year, and he’s an above-average passer. You can tell he’s a smart player. On the other hand, he’s very slow, he’s a terrible FT shooter and a miserable finisher at the rim. He kind of profiles as another Kyle Anderson, but he’s meaningfully worse in every way. I think he’s just too unathletic and not special enough at the things he’s good at to stick around in the league.

Keion Brooks Jr.

Brooks is the next step down in the combo-forward archetype from Bridges. He’s not got nearly as good a track record from 3 despite having shot well this past year and is a significant negative as a passer. A terrible A/TO and terrible steal rate make him impossible for me to like.

[Notanoob]

Just here to shoot 3s
Baylor Scheierman

I was really surprised how much the numbers like him. Everyone in this section is a lethal shooter, but the question is what else can they bring? Like the rest of them, he rarely drives to the basket, to the extent that you don’t really credit him for having a marginally higher rim FG%, or creating his own shot slightly more often. However, he has two standout skills that separate him from the rest – he is a significantly above-average passer for the position, and he is a freakishly good defensive rebounder. He generates few steals like the rest, but is the tallest midget at least, and his defensive impact number suggest that he brings more to that end than anyone else. I think he’s a first round pick.

Jaylen Wells

Elite 3 point shooter, above average A/To but rarely passes and basically never tries to do anything beyond spot up from deep. Terrible on defense, likely in part due to his T-Rex arms. Wells is a specialist with little else going for him, but between him and Reeves, he appears to have more upside for his passing, along with being 2 inches taller and 3 years younger.

Antonio Reeves

Ultra-efficient scoring machine who does it all from deep, but doesn’t do much of anything else. Perfectly solid at driving to the basket when guys close out on him, but clearly prefers to stick to the outside rather than drive. Lethal shooter, elite, but not taking shots off the dribble much. Pure shooter who finishes plays, does not make plays for anyone else and doesn’t turn the ball over ever because he doesn’t do much dribbling or passing in the first place. Miserable defender. Very clear what he can (shoot) and cannot (everything else) do. If you can find a place for a spot-up shooter like him, go for it, but don’t expect him to add value beyond that.

Dalton Knecht

I want to like him but he’s only a volume scorer, and even then basically a jump-shooter. Sure, he’s good at it, but he wasn’t any good until he was a 5th year senior. Even as a junior he was scoring 8ppg on a low-major team. He’s a poor passer, his steal rate is bad, and he’s not particularly good when attacking the basket either. I just don’t see him panning out. He doesn't stand out among this group of guys on the stat sheet. Reeves shot much better for instance.

Blake Hinson

I said everyone here is an elite shooter, but Hinson is bizarrely bad at shooting free throws. You don’t really doubt the 3 point shot given the volume and attempt rate, but it’s still really weird. He is a terrible defender like the rest, but additionally is a massive negative as a passer. The upside case I guess is that he’s so bulky that you can move him to PF where the inability to pass is less of a negative and the shooting is more of a positive, but he really isn’t long enough for that. I would pass on him.

[Notanoob]

The Rest

Terrence Shannon Jr

In contrast to Knecht, Shannon was already a good player as an underclassman. He’s elite at attacking the basket and a savant at drawing fouls. His jump shot isn’t as good but he can make them off the dribble alright. His passing leaves something to be desired as he’s a black hole. And defensively, he rebounds like a small PG despite his obvious strength and he doesn’t get many steals. I’d say part of this is down to him just having a crazy high usage rate and expending less effort on defense, but really good players can play both ends. Still, if you’re looking for a bucket-getter on the wing, he’s the guy. Biggest issue with that is he really cannot pass the ball well enough to have it in his hands all of the time, and if you're taking the ball out of his hands, how much value is he really bringing?

Jaylon Tyson

Very inefficient given his usage, he would have probably been helped out by doing a bit less. Looks like he did everything for a poor offense. Drove to the rim pretty relentlessly but without great results. Failing to make 60% at the rim as an upperclassmen is bad. He did at least put his size to work grabbing offensive rebounds. On the other hand, he shot well from 3 despite taking so many shots off the dribble and hits his free throws. It’s puzzling why he drove to the rim so much given that he can shoot off the dribble like this. He racked up assists by virtue of having the ball in his hands so much but is clearly not a secondary ballhandler with the way he turns the ball over. Steals and blocks aren’t impressive but he at least continues to rebound well. Tyson is another upperclassmen wing who can give you some scoring punch but lacks the traits to be more than a bench piece.

Isaiah Crawford

Created his own looks at the rim competently, but at a somewhat lower level of competition. Bad passer too, so you don’t really want the ball in his hands much in the NBA. Shot well from 3, and off the dribble a non-trivial portion of the time, but on low volume, which combined with his marginal FT%, suggests his jumper still needs work. Exceptional steal and block rate, impact stats say it isn’t a mirage and that he can play defense. Worth picking up to see if he can be a 3&D role player.

David Jones

Along with Shannon, Jones is the only other guy who looks to be able to create his own shots at the rim effectively. He’s an excellent offensive rebounder, which contributes to his inside scoring. He is a competent shooter, who had to learn to hit his 3s but is now doing so off the dribble on real volume. Unfortunetly you can’t leave the ball in his hands to self-create because he simply is incompetent as a passer. He picks up steals at an elite rates, blocks a solid number of shots for one of the smaller guys in this group, and he rebounds well, but the impact stats hate him. Hard to know what to make of him, but to score as efficiently as he did on the volume he did is worth taking a chance on at some point.

Clarence Daniels

In contrast to Crawford, I present Daniels. Terrible finisher despite the low level of competition. All-time bad passer. More reliable shooter who can actually hit his free throws at a pretty good rate. Solid steal and block rates with elite defensive rebounding, but impact stats say he’s just beating up future car salesmen and isn’t an actual elite defensive presence.

Emmanual Miller

Another oddball. He got to the rim a ton, but wasn’t creating his own looks and wasn’t a great finisher. He is however, the only guy other than Scheierman who I really trust to make good decisions with the ball in his hands. He adds value as a passer. His shooting appears to have come along as of late, but he is exclusively a spot-up shooter, and his tiny volume says that no one really trusts his jump shot yet. Defensively he appears to be a minus. McCuller is basically what Miller wishes he was, but with better odds of being a decent 3 point shooter.

Allen Flanigan

Flanigan is a poor finisher at the rim who cannot hit 3s. He’s a willing but poor passer. He shows good defense but nothing so special that you’d be willing to wait on something to come good for him on offense.