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Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent

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Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#1 » by greg4012 » Wed Feb 26, 2025 7:02 pm

Adrian Wooley is one of the best freshman in college basketball, and he's hiding in the CUSA. He plays for Kennesaw State, where he's leading his team in points, assists, steals and FG% this season. He's won CUSA rookie of the week 10 times and counting, putting up the best freshman numbers the conference has ever seen.

Season stats to date:

Image

Image

Listed at 6'5 180 pounds, Wooley plays a dynamic lead guard game where he efficiently scores at all 3 levels and takes nearly 90% of his FGA at the rim or from beyond the arc.

61% FG at the rim (48% of FGA)
39% FG on non-rim 2s (11% of FGA)
41% 3PT (41% of FGA)

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I'm a sucker for any prospect that has the combination of inside and outside efficient scoring that Wooley displays. Dude takes 48% of his FGA at the rim (80% self-created) and finishes efficiently. Those numbers are outstanding for a freshman guard.

The only starting NBA guards that produced an equal or higher % of their FGA at the rim in their freshmen college seasons were SGA (48%) and Ja (54%). Both shot around 60% at the rim as freshman. Neither were volume efficient 3 pt shooters.

Pair that with the fact that Wooley is shooting 42% from 3 on the season on over 5 attempts per game and Wooley is in rare air.

The only freshmen in the nation that are shooting over 37% from 3 on over 7 3PA per 100 AND have over 100 rim attempts on the season (converting over 55%) are Cooper Flagg, Adrian Wooley, and Ian Jackson. Only 46 freshmen have hit those thresholds since 2008.

If you increase the rim attempt threshold to 120 FGA at the rim, then there are only 16 freshmen that have hit those numbers since 2008. 7 of them were first round picks. Cooper Flagg and Adrian Wooley are 2 of the other 9. Wooley has the 4th highest assist percentage, the 6th highest steal %, and 5th highest 3 pt % of this group of 16.

Wooley has the 4th highest eFG% of this group of 46 distinguished freshmen over the past 15 years. The only 3 with a higher eFG% than Wooley were Lonzo Ball (58% of his FG assisted), Lauri Markkanen (60% of his FG assisted), and Ben McLemore (66% of his FG assisted). Wooley has only been assisted on 35% of his FGs so far this season.

His competition is questionable and he needs to become better at using his right hand, but damn this dude is currently a super sleeper IMO.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#2 » by EvanZ » Fri Feb 28, 2025 10:38 pm

He’s on my radar. I think he’s one of the top 10 transfer portal prospects.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#3 » by greg4012 » Sat Mar 1, 2025 8:50 pm

EvanZ wrote:He’s on my radar. I think he’s one of the top 10 transfer portal prospects.


If he doesn't enter the draft--which I think he should. Who would be a higher priority transfer portal prospect?

Guy's game is tailor made for the NBA
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#4 » by EvanZ » Sat Mar 1, 2025 11:45 pm

greg4012 wrote:
EvanZ wrote:He’s on my radar. I think he’s one of the top 10 transfer portal prospects.


If he doesn't enter the draft--which I think he should. Who would be a higher priority transfer portal prospect?

Guy's game is tailor made for the NBA


Blake Harper #1
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#5 » by EvanZ » Sat Mar 1, 2025 11:47 pm

https://bsky.app/profile/evanzamir.bsky.social/post/3lhjkv33xr22d

Top transfer portal Freshmen:

Blake Harper
Josh Harris
Mister Dean
Layne Taylor
Adrian Wooley
Max Green
Robert Hinton
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#6 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 1:09 am

EvanZ wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
EvanZ wrote:He’s on my radar. I think he’s one of the top 10 transfer portal prospects.


If he doesn't enter the draft--which I think he should. Who would be a higher priority transfer portal prospect?

Guy's game is tailor made for the NBA


Blake Harper #1


Gotta disagree there.

Harper's SOS is ranked 326th according to KenPom SOS rankings. Wooleys SOS is ranked 111th.

Both players score at identical rates (31.4 pp100 for Wooley vs 31.8 pp100 for Harper), but Wooley is substantially more efficient (60% efg for Wooley vs 50% efg for Harper). Wooley also has a higher assist%, while Harper has the edge on rebounding.

Wooley creates more of his own offense (35% of Wooley's FG assisted vs 49% for Harper), especially at the rim as a slasher (80% of Wooley's FG at the rim are self-created vs only 54% for Harper). Both shoot well from 3 (40%), but Wooley does it at almost twice the rate of 3PA. The biggest gap between Harper and Wooley may come on defense, where Wooley has a DBPM of +1.1, where Harper has a DBPM of -2.9.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#7 » by CptCrunch » Sun Mar 2, 2025 2:42 am

What is this kid's birthday? The date is Nov 1 based on his school's happy birthday message. I'm guessing he just turned 20? If he is a 19 year old true freshman, join the draft young man. No reason a team can't take him on a flyer in the 25-40 range.

His high school ranking looks funny; hasn't seen such a spread ever. He got a bunch of low major offers. He could have played in A10, but chose CUSA I'm guessing due to NIL $.

247 - 44
On3 - 291
Rivals - Unranked
ESPN - Unranked

His low BPM for production is also a bit funny.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#8 » by Negrodamus » Sun Mar 2, 2025 5:01 am

So this guy is 100% going to Bama next year, right? He’s from Tuscaloosa, seems like easy money for Oats.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#9 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 2:40 pm

Negrodamus wrote:So this guy is 100% going to Bama next year, right? He’s from Tuscaloosa, seems like easy money for Oats.


Probably--unless enough NBA scouts wise up and he goes to the draft as he should
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#10 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 2:42 pm

CptCrunch wrote:What is this kid's birthday? The date is Nov 1 based on his school's happy birthday message. I'm guessing he just turned 20? If he is a 19 year old true freshman, join the draft young man. No reason a team can't take him on a flyer in the 25-40 range.

His high school ranking looks funny; hasn't seen such a spread ever. He got a bunch of low major offers. He could have played in A10, but chose CUSA I'm guessing due to NIL $.

247 - 44
On3 - 291
Rivals - Unranked
ESPN - Unranked

His low BPM for production is also a bit funny.


For clarity, he was ranked the 44th combo guard on 247--not player. Basically a totally under the radar prospect.

I'm growing pretty suspicious of BPM as a good metric across the college bball landscape. Seems to be very deflationary for mid-major prospects and inflationary for role players on top teams.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#11 » by SeattleJazzFan » Sun Mar 2, 2025 7:19 pm

Never seen him play. Does he have NBA athleticism?
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#12 » by BigGargamel » Sun Mar 2, 2025 7:38 pm

A non ranked freshman from Kennesaw State is NOT getting drafted after one year. :lol: I can't think of anything like that ever happening. He definitely needs to transfer to a real school and show he belongs, then scouts should take notice.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#13 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 8:18 pm

BigGargamel wrote:A non ranked freshman from Kennesaw State is NOT getting drafted after one year. :lol: I can't think of anything like that ever happening. He definitely needs to transfer to a real school and show he belongs, then scouts should take notice.


Maybe not--he's still a first round talent.

If you need someone to spoonfeed nba scouting to you, that's perfectly understandable.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#14 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 8:30 pm



Wooley with his 14th game of 20+ points this season today. He's now scored 20+ points in 14 of the last 21 games he's played in. Ended the day with 22 points, 6 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, shooting 53% from the field.

I watched the whole game and charted his activity. In addition to his counting stats, I charted 3 deflections and a forced jumpball on defense. I also charted 7 unrealized assists where he created advantage and passed to a clean open look that wasn't converted. Not shocking considering Kennesaw State ranks 354th out of 364 college teams in 3 pt percentage, 294th in team efg%, and 54th in team 3PR. Wooley, of course, leads the team in 3pt shooting at 40% and over 5 attempts per game. No one else on the team is above 33% from 3.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#15 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 16, 2025 4:21 pm

CptCrunch wrote:What is this kid's birthday? The date is Nov 1 based on his school's happy birthday message. I'm guessing he just turned 20? If he is a 19 year old true freshman, join the draft young man. No reason a team can't take him on a flyer in the 25-40 range.

His high school ranking looks funny; hasn't seen such a spread ever. He got a bunch of low major offers. He could have played in A10, but chose CUSA I'm guessing due to NIL $.

247 - 44
On3 - 291
Rivals - Unranked
ESPN - Unranked

His low BPM for production is also a bit funny.


Seems he's real freshman age at 19.

Read on Twitter


Just put together the most efficient volume scoring freshman season in CUSA history. Also the most efficient freshman scoring season among any D1 freshman since 2008 that attempted at least 7 3PA per 100 possessions.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#16 » by BigGargamel » Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:10 pm

greg4012 wrote:
BigGargamel wrote:A non ranked freshman from Kennesaw State is NOT getting drafted after one year. :lol: I can't think of anything like that ever happening. He definitely needs to transfer to a real school and show he belongs, then scouts should take notice.


Maybe not--he's still a first round talent.

If you need someone to spoonfeed nba scouting to you, that's perfectly understandable.


:lol:

Dang, you're cool. Another draft expert stuck posting on RealGM. No one cares about this guy but you.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#17 » by greg4012 » Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:21 pm

BigGargamel wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
BigGargamel wrote:A non ranked freshman from Kennesaw State is NOT getting drafted after one year. :lol: I can't think of anything like that ever happening. He definitely needs to transfer to a real school and show he belongs, then scouts should take notice.


Maybe not--he's still a first round talent.

If you need someone to spoonfeed nba scouting to you, that's perfectly understandable.


:lol:

Dang, you're cool. Another draft expert stuck posting on RealGM. No one cares about this guy but you.


Show your whole a**

We all have been talking about it and we are impressed by you
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#18 » by babyjax13 » Sun Mar 16, 2025 10:27 pm

I think this is a good find, he looks like he has a lot of things NBA teams should look for. I do hope if he stays in school he transfers to Bama.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#19 » by EvanZ » Mon Mar 17, 2025 1:47 am

He’s definitely going to transfer to a high major.
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Re: Adrian Wooley is a 1st Round Talent 

Post#20 » by 165bows » Tue Mar 18, 2025 1:51 am

BigGargamel wrote:A non ranked freshman from Kennesaw State is NOT getting drafted after one year. :lol: I can't think of anything like that ever happening. He definitely needs to transfer to a real school and show he belongs, then scouts should take notice.

I mean, I don’t know the first thing about this guy but they routinely used to draft guys out of high school until the league changed the rule.

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