Jeremiah Fears reminds me of Kyrie & Dame Lillard

[MessiahUjiri]

Been watching a lot of Jeremiah Fears lately.

Fears has that star dribble, where he can get to anywhere on the floor.

He’s not the shooter that Lillard was, not the finisher that Kyrie was in college. But there are clearly star signs here

A 6’3 score first PG with that elite handle. Seems likes shades of Kyrie & Dame. Can easily see him going in the top 6-8 slot.

Are more people seeing this comp too?

[Catchall]

As you pointed out, he hasn't shot the ball on par with those guys you mentioned, although it's worth pointing out that Fears is 18 and Lillard was an upper classman. Statistically, he's like the Tyrese Maxey of this draft class. I think he's definitely a lottery guy and likely top 10.

[Chuck Everett]

Much better handles than Lillard. He can actually use the bounce to get all the way to the rim without a high ball screen. We'll see if he can shoot like that at the pro level, but elite handles (especially when moving full speed) are highly useful.

[Bernman]

I'm a big fan. He has the 3rd best foundation of anyone, between the extreme youth, elite speed, ft shooting extrapolating to outside, vision, belief, solid size, etc. So anyone looking for a 1st option potential in a few yrs should draft him starting at 3.

[JustBuzzin]

He's a jumpshot away from being unguardable.

He has elite level ball handling and is one of the shiftiest players I have seen in a while. Not much you can do with a guy who can get his own shot at any time. Right now the only question mark is his jumpshot.

[babyjax13]

I think a lowish outcome for him is something like Devin Harris or Jeff Teague. Both had pretty amazing speed, good handles, and were mediocre from range.

[Dat2U]

The problem is anyone under 6-5 210 gets over analyzed due to the desire to have guys that are switchable and can defend multiple positions. Combine this with the standard for being a ball dominant player in the NBA being sky high that some teams aren't necessarily lining up to develop the next 'Darius Garland'.

I think outside of Harper, Fears has the best combination of athleticism, skill & feel for the PG position but at 18 he's not ready yet and he'll experience some growing pains. The right team has to be patient and give him time to grow into the potential all-star he can become.

[Ell Curry]

I think a lowish outcome for him is something like Devin Harris or Jeff Teague. Both had pretty amazing speed, good handles, and were mediocre from range.

Devin Harris with average 3pt shooting (Harris shot it well in college and was just under 80% from the line but only 32% from 3) is a hell of a player.

[Braggins]

I think outside of Harper, Fears has the best combination of athleticism, skill & feel for the PG position but at 18 he's not ready yet and he'll experience some growing pains.

His pace adjusted production compares pretty well to Harper.

(box stats = per 70 possessions)

Jeremiah Fears ~ G ~ 6'4" 182
Oklahoma (SEC) ~ Fr ~ 18.7 yrs
22.7 pts ~ 5.5 reb ~ 5.5 ast ~ 2.2 stl ~ 0.2 blk ~ 4.6 tov ~ 2.5 pf
50.5% 2pt (11.0 2pta) ~ 28.4% 3pt (5.3 3pta) ~ 85.1% ft (8.4 fta) ~ 56.2% ts
+5.8 bpm (+4.2/+1.6) ~ 31.5% usg ~ .518 FTr

Dylan Harper ~ G ~ 6'6" 215
Rutgers (B10) ~ Fr ~ 19.3 yrs
24.1 pts ~ 5.7 reb ~ 5.0 ast ~ 1.8 stl ~ 0.7 blk ~ 3.0 tov ~ 2.4 pf
57.4% 2pt (10.7 2pta) ~ 33.3% 3pt (6.4 3pta) ~ 75.0% ft (7.1 fta) ~ 58.7% ts
+9.1 bpm (+7.0/+2.1) ~ 29.0% usg ~ .419 FTr

[babyjax13]

I think a lowish outcome for him is something like Devin Harris or Jeff Teague. Both had pretty amazing speed, good handles, and were mediocre from range.

Devin Harris with average 3pt shooting (Harris shot it well in college and was just under 80% from the line but only 32% from 3) is a hell of a player.

I loved Harris, he was fun to watch after Deron was traded. I'm actually pretty happy with the comparison, too, lol. But I think Fears will be a better shooter, probably not quite as physical, though.

[God Squad]

I'm still high on Fears even with his struggles. IMO he just passes the eye test and I like his handle and ability to get paint touches.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'm still high on Fears even with his struggles. IMO he just passes the eye test and I like his handle and ability to get paint touches.

With Fears I still fear more Schroder then All Star. And it’s not that a Schroder is bad, he’s a good, quality player. But do you want to be the team that takes that guy top 7 and he’s winds up a journeyman borderline starter level player?

I think I still love his upside enough to bank on it, especially with how dicey things gets after Flagg and Harper(and truthfully Bailey), but there’s an easy way to see a very mediocre player, or flatout bust.

[greg4012]

Given all of the other indicators, I bet on Fears becoming a positive shooter in the NBA every time.

FT percentage of 85%
~36% on catch & shoot 3s
Over 7 3PA per 100 possessions
46% on midrange jumpers (92% of which were off the dribble)

Every first round pick since 2008 that has shot over 80% from the FT line and at least 7 3PA per 100 possessions as a freshman went on to be a capable 3pt shooter in the NBA.

Every first round pick since 2008 that shot over 80% from the FT line and over 40% on midrange jumpers as a freshman went on to be a true threat as a 3pt shooter in the NBA (source: https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=15&minFT=0.8&minmidper=0.4&minpick=30&yvalue=Fr&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501&pickSelect=-1)

[EvanZ]

Alread had a Fears thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2420551&p=117364831#p117364831

[MessiahUjiri]

Given all of the other indicators, I bet on Fears becoming a positive shooter in the NBA every time.

FT percentage of 85%
~36% on catch & shoot 3s
Over 7 3PA per 100 possessions
46% on midrange jumpers (92% of which were off the dribble)

Every first round pick since 2008 that has shot over 80% from the FT line and at least 7 3PA per 100 possessions as a freshman went on to be a capable 3pt shooter in the NBA.

Every first round pick since 2008 that shot over 80% from the FT line and over 40% on midrange jumpers as a freshman went on to be a true threat as a 3pt shooter in the NBA (source: https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=15&minFT=0.8&minmidper=0.4&minpick=30&yvalue=Fr&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501&pickSelect=-1)

He’s younger than most rookies too, and seems like he can easily put on a good 15-20lbs.

I honestly see him with the most star potential outside the top 4 guys.

[Upperclass]

He seems more like Tre Mann or Frank Jackson imo. He doesn't have a ton of natural strength like Kyrie or Dame.. His ceiling could be Garland but he can't shoot

[greg4012]

He seems more like Tre Mann or Frank Jackson imo. He doesn't have a ton of natural strength like Kyrie or Dame.. His ceiling could be Garland but he can't shoot

Hmm I don't see those comparisons at all.

Freshman pp36 stats for each:

Jeremiah Fears - 18 years old; 20.4 pts (TS% of 56%); 5 ast; 5 reb; 2.1 stocks; creates 73% of own offense + a 29% assist percentage; 9 dunks; 52% FTR; 44% of FGA at rim; 2.9 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Tre Mann - 19 years old; 10 pts (TS% of 45%); 1.4 ast; 4 reb; 1.4 stocks; creates 65% of own offense + 7% assist percentage; 0 dunks (in whole college career); 18% FTR; 18% of FGA at rim; 1.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Frank Jackson: 19 years old; 15.8 pts(TS% of 59.8%); 2.5 ast; 3.6 reb; 1.9 stocks; creates 54% of own offense + 12.6% assist percentage; 4 dunks; 36% FTR; 32% of FGA at rim; 2.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Fears has shown monumentally more ability to create offense for self and others than either Mann or Jackson and is at a different level in terms of getting into the paint than either (with more defensive playmaking) at a younger age. He hasn't hit the pullup 3 ball well yet, but he also has the best FT% and long-2 FG% of the group. I'll take the bet that his 3 ball will come along with such a young prospect.

None of Kyrie, Dame, or Garland got into the paint at the rate that Fears did while in college. Kyrie and Garland had such small samples of college played that it's hard to put much weight on their numbers for comparisons at all tho.

[Upperclass]

He seems more like Tre Mann or Frank Jackson imo. He doesn't have a ton of natural strength like Kyrie or Dame.. His ceiling could be Garland but he can't shoot

Hmm I don't see those comparisons at all.

Freshman pp36 stats for each:

Jeremiah Fears - 18 years old; 20.4 pts (TS% of 56%); 5 ast; 5 reb; 2.1 stocks; creates 73% of own offense + a 29% assist percentage; 9 dunks; 52% FTR; 44% of FGA at rim; 2.9 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Tre Mann - 19 years old; 10 pts (TS% of 45%); 1.4 ast; 4 reb; 1.4 stocks; creates 65% of own offense + 7% assist percentage; 0 dunks (in whole college career); 18% FTR; 18% of FGA at rim; 1.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Frank Jackson: 19 years old; 15.8 pts(TS% of 59.8%); 2.5 ast; 3.6 reb; 1.9 stocks; creates 54% of own offense + 12.6% assist percentage; 4 dunks; 36% FTR; 32% of FGA at rim; 2.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Fears has shown monumentally more ability to create offense for self and others than either Mann or Jackson and is at a different level in terms of getting into the paint than either (with more defensive playmaking) at a younger age. He hasn't hit the pullup 3 ball well yet, but he also has the best FT% and long-2 FG% of the group. I'll take the bet that his 3 ball will come along with such a young prospect.

None of Kyrie, Dame, or Garland got into the paint at the rate that Fears did while in college. Kyrie and Garland had such small samples of college played that it's hard to put much weight on their numbers for comparisons at all tho.

Stats dont mean much in terms of skills translating to the next level imo. His style of play resemembles the players mentioned from what ive seen. He looks like an average, dribble drive guard that can be found throughout the G-League or on various Teams benches.

[greg4012]

He seems more like Tre Mann or Frank Jackson imo. He doesn't have a ton of natural strength like Kyrie or Dame.. His ceiling could be Garland but he can't shoot

Hmm I don't see those comparisons at all.

Freshman pp36 stats for each:

Jeremiah Fears - 18 years old; 20.4 pts (TS% of 56%); 5 ast; 5 reb; 2.1 stocks; creates 73% of own offense + a 29% assist percentage; 9 dunks; 52% FTR; 44% of FGA at rim; 2.9 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Tre Mann - 19 years old; 10 pts (TS% of 45%); 1.4 ast; 4 reb; 1.4 stocks; creates 65% of own offense + 7% assist percentage; 0 dunks (in whole college career); 18% FTR; 18% of FGA at rim; 1.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Frank Jackson: 19 years old; 15.8 pts(TS% of 59.8%); 2.5 ast; 3.6 reb; 1.9 stocks; creates 54% of own offense + 12.6% assist percentage; 4 dunks; 36% FTR; 32% of FGA at rim; 2.0 unassisted FGM at rim per 40 min

Fears has shown monumentally more ability to create offense for self and others than either Mann or Jackson and is at a different level in terms of getting into the paint than either (with more defensive playmaking) at a younger age. He hasn't hit the pullup 3 ball well yet, but he also has the best FT% and long-2 FG% of the group. I'll take the bet that his 3 ball will come along with such a young prospect.

None of Kyrie, Dame, or Garland got into the paint at the rate that Fears did while in college. Kyrie and Garland had such small samples of college played that it's hard to put much weight on their numbers for comparisons at all tho.

Stats dont mean much in terms of skills translating to the next level imo. His style of play resemembles the players mentioned from what ive seen. He looks like an average, dribble drive guard that can be found throughout the G-League or on various Teams benches.

Stats reveal playstyle and inform assessment of skillsets. Fears plays nothing like Frank Jackson lol.

For instance--neither of the 2 players you mentioned created for others at even close the rate at which Fears did. Neither of the players you mentioned created their own offense at the rate that Fears did. Neither of the players you mentioned were able to generate paint touches at nearly the rate that Fears did. And this is all while being the age of a HS senior.

Since 2008, there have literally only been 13 freshmen in all of CBB at least 6'2 that have produced over 150 rim attempts and had an assist percentage of at least 28%. But, yeah...I'm sure Fears' skillset is readily available throughout the GLeague and on every team's bench.

It's ok to say/think whatever you want, but you might want to get informed before blindly doubling down.

[BlazersBroncos]

Fears is listed like 12lbs lower than current Irving. Assuming he cant put on weight from this young age is wild.