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There's usually a top-5 bust in just about every draft. Setting aside anyone still on their rookie contracts, in the ten drafts that preceded them (2011 to 2020) there have been twelve top-5 picks which are generally accepted to have been busts.

1 Markelle Fultz, Anthony Bennett
2 James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Derrick Williams
3 Jahlil Okafor
4 Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, Dion Waiters
5 Mario Hezonja, Dante Exum, Thomas Robinson

Additionally there are top-5 picks who may not be outright busts, but who drastically under performed expectations.

Who are the most likely busts this year? In my eyes, it's Ace Bailey. I've seen others say Dylan Harper. Thoughts?

Ace for sure.
I think Harper might disappoint relative to expectations (ie - similar to Scoot).
Queen & Kon likely disappoint relative to expectations (depending on how high they get drafted).

Ace isn't a good player but he's a good prospect like Jaylen Brown. I would say he's the easiest to point at but Jeremiah Fears and Tre Johnson are guys you hope end up in good situations

tester551 wrote:Ace for sure.
I think Harper might disappoint relative to expectations (ie - similar to Scoot).
Queen & Kon likely disappoint relative to expectations (depending on how high they get drafted).

I understand the doubts about Kon and Derik but both can really hoop and show incredible stuff on film. Not sure I am going against either but I would prefer not to take either in the top 5. Moreso the 6-14 range.

If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

Bailey is the easy answer. I feel pretty confident about what you're getting with Edgecombe, Fears, Johnson, but Bailey could be great or terrible.

Rafael122 wrote:If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

Anyone taking Demin in the top five would deserve to have drafted a bust. I see nothing there.

BigGargamel wrote:Bailey is the easy answer. I feel pretty confident about what you're getting with Edgecombe, Fears, Johnson, but Bailey could be great or terrible.

Rafael122 wrote:If we're going by mocks, I would say it's VJ. I don't think he has that one defining trait that will carry him to the next level. You can see it with Flagg, you can see it with Harper. There's something there with Bailey, shotmaking etc. But VJ I'm not so sure about, and a runner up would be Demin. I'm of the opinion he will be a top 5 pick by the time we get to draft night.

Anyone taking Demin in the top five would deserve to have drafted a bust. I see nothing there.

I wouldn't have minded taking a chance on him in the lower half of the first round, but as much as I see him climbing I have reservations.

I like them all quite a bit, but if VJ's offense doesn't get more advanced he will disappoint.

Maluach could bust. I don't think he'll go in the top 5, but I'm not sure he's going to play at NBA speed well enough to stay engaged. See Mo Bamba.

babyjax13 wrote:I like them all quite a bit, but if VJ's offense doesn't get more advanced he will disappoint.

Basically Terrence Ross

azcatz11 wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:I like them all quite a bit, but if VJ's offense doesn't get more advanced he will disappoint.

Basically Terrence Ross

Ross could score, though. I'm thinking D'Anthony Melton.

Ace. I’ve never seen anyone having this bad numbers being ranked this highly. Anthony Bennett has better numbers than he does.

Shot making? The kid just dribbles with his right and take turnaround jumpers when you deny his strong side drives.

Hyping about his defense is “cope” conversation on how bad his offense is.

I don’t see VJ as a bust. He plays smart, high-level defense, and while he’s undersized, his athleticism lets him play bigger similar to GP2. Plus, he can shoot. The only thing holding him back from star upside is his limited shot creation as a guard.

76ciology wrote:I don’t see VJ as a bust. He plays smart, high-level defense, and while he’s undersized, his athleticism lets him play bigger similar to GP2. Plus, he can shoot. The only thing holding him back from star upside is his limited shot creation as a guard.

I think it depends on how you define a bust. A slightly better GP2 would, IMO, be a bust in the top-5. Agree that Ace is the other obvious pick. Lots of interesting tools but also bad red flags.

Landing spot and fit matters more than the player right now for me, because I have roughly the same top 10 as consensus.

76ciology wrote:Ace. I’ve never seen anyone having this bad numbers being ranked this highly. Anthony Bennett has better numbers than he does.

Shot making? The kid just dribbles with his right and take turnaround jumpers when you deny his strong side drives.

Hyping about his defense is “cope” conversation on how bad his offense is.

This is my problem with Ace. He's always taking contested jumpers, and it's just not going to work on most nights in the NBA. He doesn't have the handle or creativity to compensate atm.

Whoever drafts him will need to change the way he sees the game.

Kon

Kneuppel.

Bust.

"Bust" is a rough term, obviously--it can mean a few things...

IMHO, Ace is still the player that could be drafted #3 overall and end up averaging 12/3/1 for his career on volume.

babyjax13 wrote:

76ciology wrote:I don’t see VJ as a bust. He plays smart, high-level defense, and while he’s undersized, his athleticism lets him play bigger similar to GP2. Plus, he can shoot. The only thing holding him back from star upside is his limited shot creation as a guard.

I think it depends on how you define a bust. A slightly better GP2 would, IMO, be a bust in the top-5. Agree that Ace is the other obvious pick. Lots of interesting tools but also bad red flags.

I’ve rooted for a lot of busts during my younger years, so I’ve become pretty familiar with how their careers tend to unfold (and also taught me how to spot them). To me, a “bust” is a prospect who fails to have a long, productive career in the league. The player who really made me realize this was Mike Conley, who was drafted 4th overall.