RealGM

After Cooper and Harper, this draft has quite a few shooting guards. I have a really hard time separating them. VJ, Kon
and Tre are basically the same size. Fears is still smaller, but very much a shooting guard with PG size.

Player Name	Height	Weight	Vertical	Reach	Wingspan	Hand Length	Hand Width
VJ Edgecombe	6'4.00"	193.2 lbs	38.5"	8'5.5"	6'7.5"	8.50"	9.50"
Kon Knueppel	6'5.00"	219.0 lbs	36.5"	8'5.5"	6'6.25"	8.50"	9.75"
Tre Johnson	6'4.75"	190.4 lbs	37.5"	8'5.0"	6'10.25"	8.50"	8.00"
Jeremiah Fears	6'2.50"	179.6 lbs	36.5"	8'2.5"	6'5.25"	8.25"	9.25"

I'm going to put people on the spot here and ask all of you to vote for the best prospect. You can feel free to define what best means in your mind. We don't need a nuianced answer, just a vibe check response.

They are all so different, and team needs/style is going to play a monster part, but if i had to just rank them blindly with no outside factors I'd probably have...

1. Johnson
2. Fears
3. Edgecombe
4. Knueppel

I think they wilil be drafted in this order though: Edgecombe, Johnson, Knueppel, Fears

1. Johnson
2. Edgecombe
-gap-
3. Fears
4. Knueppel

My rank is

1. Kon
2. Tre
gap
3. VJ
gap
4. Fears

I think Tre is going to shock some people a few years down the line.

Fears
Tre
VJ
Kon

Fears is a PG

vincecarter4pres wrote:I think Tre is going to shock some people a few years down the line.

Me too. He´s a nuclear shooter, and his passing is pretty good, i think he can be a lead guard.

My first impression of Tre Johnson is that he is one of the most exciting pure scoring guard prospects since Ray Allen at Connecticut. He's such a good quick-release shooter off of movement, that you could play him like Klay Thompson. Then he has some on-ball creation potential. I would have him first on my list.

I understand the positional value of a lead guard who can warp a defense and break the paint, but Fears still needs to finish plays at a high level to be effective, as well as make players around him better. Defense is a question, but I'd put Fears second.

I'd put VJ Edgecombe third here. He's an interesting two-way combo guard, but he's not really an advantage creator or lead initiator at the present stage. He should be a better play finisher than he is right now.

Knueppel is a glue guy. He's like a bigger, more modern version of Jeff Hornacek. Great IQ, great at making reads and decisions, knock-down shooter, but a complementary player.

Not a super high of any of them. I will say that if we assume Fears is a SG rather than a PG then I'd have him last. The only reason to draft Fears high is because you believe in him as your lead Guard.

If we are to consider all prospects and not just the one you listed, I would mention Cedric Coward (SG/SF) and Jase Richardson (SG/PG) who I have both higher and who may or may not be considered SGs.

The-Power wrote:Not a super high of any of them. I will say that if we assume Fears is a SG rather than a PG then I'd have him last. The only reason to draft Fears high is because you believe in him as your lead Guard.

If we are to consider all prospects and not just the one you listed, I would mention Cedric Coward (SG/SF) and Jase Richardson (SG/PG) who I have both higher and who may or may not be considered SGs.

You can evaluate Fears as a player, the probability of him being better than the other 3. It doesn't really matter if he is a PG, scoring PG, CG or SG. He is gonna be a shot taker at the next level, same for VJ and Tre, less so for Kon.

Didn't add Coward and Jase as these 4 + Ace is considered the next group of players after Cooper and Harper.

CptCrunch wrote:You can evaluate Fears as a player, the probability of him being better than the other 3. It doesn't really matter if he is a PG, scoring PG, CG or SG.

It kind of does, though. If you need a primary ball handler next to him, or generally prefer to have someone else to have the ball over him, then he loses much of his appeal IMO.

The-Power wrote:

CptCrunch wrote:You can evaluate Fears as a player, the probability of him being better than the other 3. It doesn't really matter if he is a PG, scoring PG, CG or SG.

It kind of does, though. If you need a primary ball handler next to him, or generally prefer to have someone else to have the ball over him, then he loses much of his appeal IMO.

That's missing the exercise. You are now incorporating future information about fit and development. The ask is simple as a prospect, how good these players are right now.

Looks like these forums clearly prefers Tre over the others. Main stream NBA media has VJ a bit higher than Tre I believe.

I have VJ, Kon and Tre in the same tier.

I'm lower on Fears.

Fears is a Point Guard prospect

We will see if steals is really the great harbinger or not.

Right now it's kon vj fears tre which is pretty much the floor. The ceiling is almost the exact reverse. I'm going to say tre doesn't improve he just doesn't seem like he wants it. Based on attitude I like vj of the bunch too be the best bet.

Taken from reddit; source from Vegas aggregator



Image reproduced as table below when it inevitably dies in a few years.

Player	#1 (DAL)	#2 (SAS)	#3 (PHI)	#4 (CHA)	#5 (UTA)	#6 (WAS)	#7 (NOP)	#8 (BKN)	#9 (TOR)	#10 (PHX)
COOPER FLAGG (DUKE)	97.7% -10000	0.6% +15000	0.4% +22223	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
DYLAN HARPER (RUTG)	1.3% +7506	91.0% -6678	2.8% +2728	1.0% +7742	-	-	-	-	-	-
VJ EDGECOMBE (BAY)	0.5% +20000	3.8% +2341	59.6% -309	21.2% +264	8.1% +847	3.7% +2200	1.6% +5000	-	-	-
ACE BAILEY (RUTG)	0.5% +20000	4.0% +2223	15.1% +424	18.7% +314	21.3% +262	26.3% +220	10.9% +650	13.0% +500	-	-
KHAMAN MALUACH (DUKE)	-	0.6% +15000	3.2% +2404	8.8% +774	8.1% +847	18.7% +350	18.1% +350	15.6% +400	26.2% +240	9.0% +850
TRE JOHNSON (TEX)	-	-	12.1% +552	15.2% +410	26.4% +192	13.0% +550	10.2% +700	7.8% +900	3.4% +2500	-
KON KNUEPPEL (DUKE)	-	-	6.1% +1200	30.9% +150	18.2% +324	12.0% +600	12.5% +550	8.7% +800	3.4% +2500	2.4% +3500
JEREMIAH FEARS (OKLA)	-	-	0.8% +9381	3.2% +2341	16.3% +374	18.7% +350	14.2% +200	6.9% +450	3.3% +1200	-
DERIK QUEEN (MD)	-	-	-	1.1% +7173	1.5% +4987	5.3% +1500	7.4% +1000	7.1% +1000	12.7% +600	14.3% +500
KASPARAS JAKUCIONIS (ILL)	-	-	-	-	-	2.3% +3500	6.3% +1200	11.1% +600	13.7% +500	14.3% +500
CARTER BRYANT (ARIZ)	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.3% +3500	3.7% +2000	14.9% +500	14.3% +500
EGOR DEMIN (BYU)	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.0% +4000	14.2% +450	5.9% +1400	7.8% +1000
COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLES (SCAR)	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.6% +5000	2.5% +3000	6.4% +1300	11.5% +650
CEDRIC COWARD (DUKE)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.2% +3500	4.7% +1800	9.5% +800
JASE RICHARDSON (MSU)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.7% +5000	7.8% +1000
THOMAS SORBER (GTWN)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5.7% +1400

Calculated expected pick based (not really expectation as rows don't sum up to 1, but close enough)

Rank	Player	Top 10 Probability	Expected Draft Position (Conditional on Top 10 Selection)
1	Cooper Flagg	98.7%	1.01
2	Dylan Harper	96.1%	2.04
3	VJ Edgecombe	98.5%	3.51
4	Tre Johnson	88.1%	5.35
5	Kon Knueppel	94.2%	5.48
6	Ace Bailey	99.8%	5.74
7	Jeremiah Fears	63.4%	6.20
8	Khaman Maluach	98.3%	7.89
9	Derik Queen	49.4%	8.29
10	Egor Demin	29.9%	8.65
11	Kasparas Jakucionis	47.7%	8.66
12	Carter Bryant	35.2%	9.17
13	Collin Murray-Boyles	22.0%	9.26
14	Cedric Coward	16.4%	9.45
15	Thomas Sorber	19.9%	9.71
16	Jase Richardson	9.5%	9.82

Tbh, Tre Johnson has the clearest nba path to stardom. He has the perimeter skill, shooting, and good tools. I can see a Tyler Herro with some more defensive upside. Fears has star upside, but he needs his shot to come to make it. I don't know if VJ actually has the skill to be an offensive star at the next level at all. Defense is killer though. Kon has no star upside, but will be a good pro.

Fears is too small and inefficient, and you can't really use him as anything but your lead guard. Easy to see how he doesn't work out. I wouldn't even consider him a SG.

Johnson is basically not good at anything beyond jumpshooting right now. He's really good at that, but you need more to be a success in the NBA. Super thin, can't defend really, doesn't really show as a passer.

Kon is also heavily based around his shooting, but he's bigger, stronger, tougher, and shows some juice in other areas on offense.

VJ is tough for me because he made such a dramatic improvement midseason on offense, going from "is he good at anything in the halfcourt" to doing quite a bit. I'm not totally sold on his star upsides because he struggled to finish at the rim in the half court, which is a major red flag for me, but he's got all of the athletic tools, he's unselfish, and hits his free throws.