RealGM

How do you guys currently rank this group of lead guards?

I guess you can mix in Tanner, Anderson and Stirtz as well if you feel necessary.

Philon can go. I know I can play that guy on or off the ball and he can be effective. I think he will end up having the best career of the four.

I think Brown has the highest upside of the bunch and is the guy I would roll the dice on. Acuff's defense is atrocious, I don't see how a team is going to be able to keep him on the floor during crunch time or the playoffs.

Bad Bart wrote:I think Brown has the highest upside of the bunch and is the guy I would roll the dice on. Acuff's defense is atrocious, I don't see how a team is going to be able to keep him on the floor during crunch time or the playoffs.

Yeah I just don't know if I am all that convinced any of these small guards are going to be able to defend. Fleming has good steal numbers playing on a defense focused squad but not sure I see him as some great defender at 190 lbs soaking wet.

Brown and Philon defense is pretty similar to Acuff. Philon defense was better last year with less of an offensive load but as his usage went up this year his defensive impact went down. So someone like Acuff who carries Arkansas offense right now bad defense is pretty much what I would suspect.

NBA wise so much of the defense I think will matter on the role they are put in day 1.

Wagler?

He’s the best of the bunch.

Brown. After that I am torn on whether I have Acuff or Flemings higher (right now Acuff), Philon behind them.

Haven't checked out either guys tape yet, waiting until tourney stuff. As a guy with interest due to team wants and needs, I'm leaning on trading back for Acuff and recouping more value in the draft for Atl.

SNPA wrote:Wagler?

He’s the best of the bunch.

Yeah excluded him since he is so much bigger. I have Wagler ahead of these guys too.

I know Acuff’s size is concerning, but he has a lot of CP3, Dame, 6’2 Damon Stoudamire, Marbury with a sane brain to him, Brunson, etc.

If he rips it deep into the tourney, interviews well and is nasty in workouts, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go as high as 3rd overall.


Flemings first step and mobility is kinda ridiculous. Have concerns with his shooting and smarts at times, but it’s not like he’s low bbiq at all, or has a bad shot. He just gets to where he wants, when he wants on the court at all times, and you cannot teach that.


Brown has some serious upside, but he feels a little JR Smith-y in the brain. I just don’t see it ever being put together entirely. I’m taking him dead last from this group and Wagler.


Philon is being seriously slept on.

Philon is so hard not to like as the #1 PG off the board.

His first step isn’t elite like Flemings, but isn’t bad at all and with NBA spacing he should get where he wants even easier.

He has total command of the offense but isn’t as ball dominant and heliocentric with the need to have ultra high usage and dribble the air out of the ball to playmake for others and himself like Acuff.

He looks to move the ball immediately, great decisiveness, understands the reset, feeding the hot hand, master of pick and roll.

Shifty and great with change of direction, head fakes, using his pivot foot and getting the help to leave their feet.

His shooting should get better and better.

His passing lanes and anticipation defense looks elite and his man and team D should be legitimately passable at worst.

True 3 level scorer and great off ball shooter as well.

Philon is a guy I love to windup a complete best years of Conley’s prime sustained for 8 years kind of stud. He has some Curry-lite to him for real.



All that said, I think I go:

1. Acuff
2a. Philon
2b. Flemings
3. Brown



Burries is a guy I love though, maybe the best out of all these guys plus Wagler.

He’s definitely more shooting guard, but I see a lot of Jamal Murray and Brandon Roy to him.

Of those 4

Mikel
Flemings
Philon
Acuff


I like Okorie but probably smart to stay another year with this class shaping up as is.

1. Flemings
2. Acuff
3. Philon
4. Brown

You could make a case for taking any of those 3 first. I like them all, for different reasons, and have had all in my top ten in my mocks for a while.

Not a fan of Brown at all. He's shown some slight glimpses of what he could be, but he's not a great shooter, and isn't an inefficient point guard. What point does he serve really?

I'd trust Brayden Burries at point guard before I would Brown, so I'd probably include him in this discussion.

Based on my analytical model's regularized strength weighed boxed plus minus metric (sBPM); Flemings is clearly in a tier of his own. This metric takes into account production against competition, discounting high stats against poor competition.

Mikel is a bit underrated by this metric as he is fairly inefficient and high variance.



Flemings is a tier 1 player for me this year. Acuff is top of tier 2, Mikel at very bottom of tier 2. LaBaron is a lot worse than Mikel as a freshman (I've added Baron's freshman season).

Acuff is an interesting case. He seems to be the shortest of the three, but the best shooter and passer. He is strong, with a good wingspan.

Gotta throw Anderson into that mix, too. He is being slept on. Though he could always stay in college an extra year.

MGB8 wrote:Gotta throw Anderson into that mix, too. He is being slept on. Though he could always stay in college an extra year.

Christian Anderson is off the charts. He's so impressive to watch and underrated.

Tyler Tanner is draftable, and I might take him over Philon or Mikel.

He is tiny, maybe 2 inches smaller than Acuff/Fleming. But he is an ace defender, SEC All-Defensive team, Naismith Defensive Player of the Year finalist. None of these small guards (anyone in this thread) are gonna play defense in the NBA as perimeter guarding is not a possibility under current rule sets. You just hope they have good team defensive awareness and good hands for steals. Tanner checks these boxes harder than any of the 4 listed in the thread. Of course Fleming and Acuff are waaay better than him as prospects.

Tanner's ceiling is limited by his size as I don't see sub 6 feet guards becoming superstars or even good all stars.

If you want to have a peek comparing all the players listed here - http://vstatball.com?s=624a1a

Disclaimer - App is a WIP, may change at any time.

sBPM is a new one number advanced stat that I am working on that takes into account:
1) strength of competition (same stat against Duke vs Alcorn State stat have wildly different weights)
2) strength of competition is now a regularized estimator with proper shrinkage and time-decay rating (winning 10 games, then losing 10 is wildly different from losing 10 then winning 10 -> these two teams aren't equal).

vBPM is just my version of Sports Reference/Bart Torvik BPM; they are all different as BPM isn't a singular thing. Other stats including Game Score, PER are standard implementations and should reconcile with other sources.

MGB8 wrote:Gotta throw Anderson into that mix, too. He is being slept on. Though he could always stay in college an extra year.

He's so skinny though. I think he's a better playmaking Bones Hyland. I don't know if he can hold up as a starter, but as a backup, he'd be fine. Mid 20's.

I dont think Philon belongs in that group. I haven't watched a lot of Alabama games, but from what I can tell, Holloway is their PG and Philon is still just an undersized SG with improved playmaking as a sophomore. Maybe he could fit next to a bigger playmaker at some other position on the court.

AST% and TOV%:
Philon 31%, 12.7% (24.9%, 15.2% as a freshman)
Brown 30.1%, 16.4%
Acuff 32.3%, 9.9%
Flemings 33.7%, 11.5%

Brown has real star upside, and I actually do like the glimpses of D that I saw from him, but his "shooting turnovers" and some of the passes that he throws out to nowhere are discouraging. Hate to bet against him, but also hate to bet on him surpassing Acuff and Flemings, who I appreciate so much.

Telfaire wrote:I dont think Philon belongs in that group. I haven't watched a lot of Alabama games, but from what I can tell, Holloway is their PG and Philon is still just an undersized SG with improved playmaking as a sophomore. Maybe he could fit next to a bigger playmaker at some other position on the court.

AST% and TOV%:
Philon 31%, 12.7% (24.9%, 15.2% as a freshman)
Brown 30.1%, 16.4%
Acuff 32.3%, 9.9%
Flemings 33.7%, 11.5%

Brown has real star upside, and I actually do like the glimpses of D that I saw from him, but his "shooting turnovers" and some of the passes that he throws out to nowhere are discouraging. Hate to bet against him, but also hate to bet on him surpassing Acuff and Flemings, who I appreciate so much.

I would be cautious with conflating Alabama finding a way to get a talented small guard on the floor (Holloway) to play alongside Philon with the idea that Philon hasn't operated as their lead guard. What Philon has shown over 2 college seasons is an increased ability to play on ball and off ball. This season he by far leads the team in usage at 30% (Holloway at 23%) and assist rate at 31% (Holloway a 24%).

With Philon taking on such a heavy offensive load, his defensive impact has slipped this season, but as a freshman he was a certified defensive DAWG with the highest DBPM of any of the top 5 players at Bama (+4.1)