How does 4-10 pick rank in other drafts?

[dirkdiggler4177]

There is all this talk about this draft being super strong. One scout said it's like a double draft. So I'm just wondering, how is the 4-10 pick strength? Could you get a franchise player there? How would these players be ranked if they were in last year's draft or the draft before that, during that time (ignoring what we know about these players today, in the NBA)

[JMAC3]

1-6 all have a case to go as high as 1-4 in most drafts IMO. These aren't my exact ranks more so how I feel consensus feels about them.

Dybantsa would go 1-2 in most drafts
Boozer would go 1-2 in most drafts
Peterson would go 1-3 in most drafts
Wilson would go 3-4 in most drafts
Wagler would go 3-5 most drafts
Flemings would 3-5 in most drafts

I still think guys like Wemby, Flagg would go first in this draft. Paolo, Chet, Miller, Harper are probably going 3rd or 4th in this draft at least too.

I would say landing 4-7 is probably better than average but it isn't like you are getting guys 5th and 6th that would be 1st or 2nd picks most years.

[King Ken]

10 would easily go first in 2024.
10 would go top 10 for sure in 2025. Definitely top 6, grade wise, 10 would go as high as 3.

[CptCrunch]

This draft is absurdly strong; it's probably the strongest pre-draft class of all-times for me. This is at least a triple draft at the top.

I'll take 1-6 1st in 2024, locked consensus.

I'll take 1-6 2nd in 2025 (no hindsight bias on Kon here).

For reference; here are the results of all freshman with criteria:

Freshman | PPG > 15 | BPM > 8 | MPG > 25 | Total Minutes > 500 for all seasons back to 2010. (This list does not contain international players)

Most years you get one freshman playing at this level, this year you are getting 8, 6 of whom are considered top 6.

2026 Season (8 Players)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2026	Cameron Boozer		Duke	18.80	22.63	32.53
2026	Caleb Wilson		North Carolina	12.66	19.83	31.46
2026	Keaton Wagler		Illinois	10.10	18.10	33.47
2026	Kingston Flemings		Houston	9.99	16.57	31.60
2026	AJ Dybantsa		BYU	9.67	24.83	34.10
2026	Darryn Peterson		Kansas	9.27	19.47	27.89
2026	Hannes Steinbach		Washington	8.76	18.33	34.26
2026	Ebuka Okorie		Stanford	8.70	22.79	34.71

2025 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2025	Cooper Flagg	1	Duke	15.32	19.16	30.65

2024 Season (0 Players)
No true freshmen met the BPM threshold this season.

2023 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2023	Brandon Miller	2	Alabama	9.45	18.81	32.68

2022 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2022	Jabari Smith Jr.	3	Auburn	8.64	16.94	28.76

2021 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2021	Evan Mobley	3	USC	11.67	16.36	33.91

2020 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2020	Onyeka Okongwu	6	USC	9.86	16.21	30.64

2019 Season (2 Players)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2019	Zion Williamson	1	Duke	17.99	22.61	30.00
2019	Jalen Pickett	32	Siena	8.66	15.79	37.12

2018 Season (3 Players)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2018	Deandre Ayton	1	Arizona	10.84	20.11	33.49
2018	Trae Young	5	Oklahoma	9.95	27.38	35.41
2018	Marvin Bagley III	2	Duke	8.83	21.03	33.88

2017 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2017	Markelle Fultz	1	Washington	8.72	23.16	35.68

2016 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2016	Ben Simmons	1	LSU	8.83	19.15	34.88

2015 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2015	D'Angelo Russell	2	Ohio State	9.42	19.29	33.94

2013 Season (3 Players)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2013	Marcus Smart	6	Oklahoma State	9.09	15.36	33.52
2013	Anthony Bennett	1	UNLV	8.49	16.11	27.14
2013	Ben McLemore	7	Kansas	8.14	15.92	32.19

2012 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2012	Cody Zeller	4	Indiana	10.72	15.64	28.47

2011 Season (1 Player)

Year	Name	Draft	School	BPM	PPG	MPG
2011	Jared Sullinger	21	Ohio State	8.12	17.16	31.68

[One_and_Done]

I remember I went through about 20+ years of drafts, and on average there are 2-3 all-nba calibre guys in the top 10 each year. Not sure what it would come out to for 4-10 only, but there certainly look to be some better players than usual in that range.

That said, I'll be surprised if 4-14 next draft is better than the group we just got from 4-14, which included Kon, CMB, Coward, C.Bryant, Ace, Fears, Queen, Noa, Egor, and Tre.

[One_and_Done]

10 would easily go first in 2024.
10 would go top 10 for sure in 2025. Definitely top 6, grade wise, 10 would go as high as 3.

Seems ludicrous when you look at how Castle is playing. They might go over Risache, but not sure we should punish that whole draft just because the Hawks made a bad pick.

[babyjax13]

10 would easily go first in 2024.
10 would go top 10 for sure in 2025. Definitely top 6, grade wise, 10 would go as high as 3.

Seems ludicrous when you look at how Castle is playing. They might go over Risache, but not sure we should punish that whole draft just because the Hawks made a bad pick.

Plus the majority of people here and elsewhere had Sarr > Risacher at the time. Granted, 2024 is a bad draft, but even in a bad draft there are good players. I think if Sarr as a prospect were in this draft there is a good chance he would go 5th.

[babyjax13]

But, re: the original question, I think 4-10 is better than in most drafts. I think Wilson would go first in some of the weaker drafts from the last decade, and several players in that range this year would go top 5 in most other drafts. I don't buy that this is a 'double-draft,' but a 'draft-and-a-half'? Sure. We have had back-to-back drafts that are just fantastic, so we are very lucky.

[One_and_Done]

But, re: the original question, I think 4-10 is better than in most drafts. I think Wilson would go first in some of the weaker drafts from the last decade, and several players in that range this year would go top 5 in most other drafts. I don't buy that this is a 'double-draft,' but a 'draft-and-a-half'? Sure. We have had back-to-back drafts that are just fantastic, so we are very lucky.

It's unclear if Wilson will be there at 4. He could go before Boozer.

[babyjax13]

But, re: the original question, I think 4-10 is better than in most drafts. I think Wilson would go first in some of the weaker drafts from the last decade, and several players in that range this year would go top 5 in most other drafts. I don't buy that this is a 'double-draft,' but a 'draft-and-a-half'? Sure. We have had back-to-back drafts that are just fantastic, so we are very lucky.

It's unclear if Wilson will be there at 4. He could go before Boozer.

I would say the same about Boozer, then, he would go first in a lot of the weaker drafts.

[One_and_Done]

But, re: the original question, I think 4-10 is better than in most drafts. I think Wilson would go first in some of the weaker drafts from the last decade, and several players in that range this year would go top 5 in most other drafts. I don't buy that this is a 'double-draft,' but a 'draft-and-a-half'? Sure. We have had back-to-back drafts that are just fantastic, so we are very lucky.

It's unclear if Wilson will be there at 4. He could go before Boozer.

I would say the same about Boozer, then, he would go first in a lot of the weaker drafts.

If he went 1st in those weaker drafts, which is plausible, it would probably be a mistake. Yeh, he might go 1st over say Risacher, but in hindsight Castle is probably the better pick.

[JMAC3]

Comparing any draft to 2024 is a worthess process, the class was terrible predraft and terrible post draft. We all knew it was going to be bad.

[One_and_Done]

Comparing any draft to 2024 is a worthess process, the class was terrible predraft and terrible post draft. We all knew it was going to be bad.

Castle looks like a star in the making. Sarr and Reed might be pretty good too. It was a weak draft, but it's being undersold.

[JMAC3]

Comparing any draft to 2024 is a worthess process, the class was terrible predraft and terrible post draft. We all knew it was going to be bad.

Castle looks like a star in the making. Sarr and Reed might be pretty good too. It was a weak draft, but it's being undersold.

I would be shocked if a single team would give up a lottery pick in this draft for either Reed or Sarr. Pretty bad litmus test if we are calling them 2nd or 3rd best players from the class in hindsight.

[Benjammin]

It's unclear if Wilson will be there at 4. He could go before Boozer.

I would say the same about Boozer, then, he would go first in a lot of the weaker drafts.

If he went 1st in those weaker drafts, which is plausible, it would probably be a mistake. Yeh, he might go 1st over say Risacher, but in hindsight Castle is probably the better pick.

Castle and Sarr obviously among others.

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[Benjammin]

Comparing any draft to 2024 is a worthess process, the class was terrible predraft and terrible post draft. We all knew it was going to be bad.

Castle looks like a star in the making. Sarr and Reed might be pretty good too. It was a weak draft, but it's being undersold.

I would be shocked if a single team would give up a lottery pick in this draft for either Reed or Sarr. Pretty bad litmus test if we are calling them 2nd or 3rd best players from the class in hindsight.

Then you don't know much about basketball. Sarr is easily in the top five of this draft given what he's shown. As a Wizards fan I wouldn't trade Sarr for the fourth or fifth pick and I like Wilson a lot.

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[babyjax13]

Castle looks like a star in the making. Sarr and Reed might be pretty good too. It was a weak draft, but it's being undersold.

I would be shocked if a single team would give up a lottery pick in this draft for either Reed or Sarr. Pretty bad litmus test if we are calling them 2nd or 3rd best players from the class in hindsight.

Then you don't know much about basketball. Sarr is easily in the top five of this draft given what he's shown. As a Wizards fan I wouldn't trade Sarr for the fourth or fifth pick and I like Wilson a lot.

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I would give up the 4th pick for Sarr if the choice were Sarr or Wilson. Granted, pre-draft, I think I would have taken Wilson over Sarr.

[Benjammin]

^I doubt many NBA GMs would agree with you.

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[JMAC3]

Castle looks like a star in the making. Sarr and Reed might be pretty good too. It was a weak draft, but it's being undersold.

I would be shocked if a single team would give up a lottery pick in this draft for either Reed or Sarr. Pretty bad litmus test if we are calling them 2nd or 3rd best players from the class in hindsight.

Then you don't know much about basketball. Sarr is easily in the top five of this draft given what he's shown. As a Wizards fan I wouldn't trade Sarr for the fourth or fifth pick and I like Wilson a lot.

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"As a Wizards Fan"... sure that makes more sense then.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I would be shocked if a single team would give up a lottery pick in this draft for either Reed or Sarr. Pretty bad litmus test if we are calling them 2nd or 3rd best players from the class in hindsight.

Then you don't know much about basketball. Sarr is easily in the top five of this draft given what he's shown. As a Wizards fan I wouldn't trade Sarr for the fourth or fifth pick and I like Wilson a lot.

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I would give up the 4th pick for Sarr if the choice were Sarr or Wilson. Granted, pre-draft, I think I would have taken Wilson over Sarr.

Yeah the idea that no team would give up a lottery pick for Sarr is incredibly incompetent.

He is averaging 17/7.5/2.5 as a 20 year old big man with incredible draft priors.

He is still inefficient as a scorer, makes sense as a big man with the guards on Washington and the shot diet Sarr currently has, but has made a quantum leap from year 2. The reality is high-level prospects who make major leaps from Year 1 to Year 2 typically end up being very good NBA players.