RealGM

There's been one (or more) top-5 pick who has grossly underperformed expectations in nearly every draft for the last quarter century.

Your choice should reflect:
A) a player who you slot in the top-5
B) the one you think most likely to disappoint

Included in the poll are the top-10 in order from Tankathon's mock draft.

My choice is Peterson. He might end up being the best player in this draft, but I'm concerned that he may lack the grit to push through adversity. High risk / high reward potential.

I think it would have to be caleb Wilson. So much potential but I could totally see him busting. Him or CamB

I voted MBJ because I think he's the most "boom or bust" guy in the draft.

High variance shooter, some shot selection concerns, thin frame, and lingering back problems...

At the same time, he shoots at an impressive rate from 3, has true playmaking ability, and seems to love the game.

raleigh wrote:I voted MBJ because I think he's the most "boom or bust" guy in the draft.

High variance shooter, some shot selection concerns, thin frame, and lingering back problems...

You think that Brown will be one of the first five picks? Perfectly fine if you think that — he's included in the poll after all.

raleigh wrote:I voted MBJ because I think he's the most "boom or bust" guy in the draft.

High variance shooter, some shot selection concerns, thin frame, and lingering back problems...

Is he seen as someone who's going top 5 though? I don't have a range for him. I mean he's going to have to test and workout for teams unless he's still injured, of course.

As to the question, I ultimately expect the top-5 to be (in any order after AJ):

1. Dybantsa
2. Boozer
3. Peterson
4. Wilson
5. Wagler

If that's the group, it's tough. With how competitive he is, I just can't see Wagler busting. His mindset won't allow that to happen. Dybantsa is not going to bust. In fact, after about 2 seasons, he's going to be a pain in the arse for every team in the league. Clear all NBA level talent.

Boozer is so smart, I don't see him busting either. His star potential might not be the highest, but he plays winning basketball. And as he gets more comfortable, he'll do work. He'll also perform better around teammates who can actually make perimeter shots, so his passing ability can be utilized.

I guess by default of this thought experiment, I have to look at Peterson or Wilson. In the context of this exercise, I will say Wilson will have the worst career of the 5, but even his fantastic attitude doesn't make me think he'll bust. I personally need him to succeed because we really don't have any high flying power forward types in the NBA right now (like Kemp, McDyess, Amare, Blake Griffin). A lot of hybrid forwards, but not elite athletes playing the PF exclusively.

Peterson may only be a volume scorer, but teams still value that archetype, if they're efficient.

Chuck Everett wrote:As to the question, I ultimately expect the top-5 to be (in any order after AJ):

1. Dybantsa
2. Boozer
3. Peterson
4. Wilson
5. Wagler

If that's the group, it's tough. With how competitive he is, I just can't see Wagler busting. His mindset won't allow that to happen. Dybantsa is not going to bust. In fact, after about 2 seasons, he's going to be a pain in the arse for every team in the league. Clear all NBA talent.

Boozer is so smart, I don't see him busting either. His star potential might not be the highest, but he plays winning basketball. And as he gets more comfortable, he'll do work. He'll also perform better around teammates who can actually make perimeter shots, so his passing ability can be utilized.

I guess by default of this thought experiment, I have to look at Peterson or Wilson. In the context of this exercise, I will say Wilson will have the worst career of the 5, but even his fantastic attitude doesn't make me think he'll bust. I personally need him to succeed because we really don't have any high flying power forward types in the NBA right now (like Kemp, McDyess, Amare, Blake Griffin). A lot of hybrid forwards, but not elite athletes playing the PF exclusively.

Peterson may only be a volume scorer, but teams still value that archetype, if they're efficient.

I'm realistically expecting the Jazz to pick at 6, their most likely post-lottery outcome. If Wagler is available there I'll be downright giddy. No guarantees that Ainge, Jr. won't whiff on the pick though.

SkyHook wrote:I'm realistically expecting the Jazz to pick at 6, their most likely post-lottery outcome. If Wagler is available there I'll be downright giddy. No guarantees that Ainge, Jr. won't whiff on the pick though.

If they fell to 6, who would you take if Dybantsa, Wagler, Peterson, Wilson and Boozer were off the board? Like I think Philon is awesome, but you already have Keyonte. Then again, I understand BPA and all that.

Jazz are going to win a lot of games next year.

Chuck Everett wrote:

SkyHook wrote:I'm realistically expecting the Jazz to pick at 6, their most likely post-lottery outcome. If Wagler is available there I'll be downright giddy. No guarantees that Ainge, Jr. won't whiff on the pick though.

If they fell to 6, who would you take if Dybantsa, Wagler, Peterson, Wilson and Boozer were off the board. Like I think Philon is awesome, but you already have Keyonte. Then again, I understand BPA and all that.

Jazz are going to win a lot of games next year.

I like Flemings. Good size, decent shot, projects as a plus defender. Not concerned about the fit with Keynote—they can play together—but I think that as long as George remains a 1st percentile defender, he's better suited long term to a microwave role off the bench. I'm worried that the Jazz brass will grossly overpay him on an extension.

I'm definitely excited for next season.

SkyHook wrote:

raleigh wrote:I voted MBJ because I think he's the most "boom or bust" guy in the draft.

High variance shooter, some shot selection concerns, thin frame, and lingering back problems...

You think that Brown will be one of the first five picks? Perfectly fine if you think that — he's included in the poll after all.

I think there's a clear top 4. The fifth spot is fun.

If I had to bet on the top 4 I would say Wilson. I love him, but I think he has the most "swing skills" to be a star. The shooting has to develop, and the handle needs to develop a bit. He has a relentless motor, but needs to build some strength. Someone in the top generally does bust, but this really feels like a year where we should be surprised by no one doing so. If I extend it to the top 5 then my answer is whoever is 5th, but specifically Flemings. I think he has a nice looking shot but he is low volume. He doesn't have a deceptive handle at all, and he is a bit small.

babyjax13 wrote:If I had to bet on the top 4 I would say Wilson. I love him, but I think he has the most "swing skills" to be a star. The shooting has to develop, and the handle needs to develop a bit. He has a relentless motor, but needs to build some strength. Someone in the top generally does bust, but this really feels like a year where we should be surprised by no one doing so. If I extend it to the top 5 then my answer is whoever is 5th, but specifically Flemings. I think he has a nice looking shot but he is low volume. He doesn't have a deceptive handle at all, and he is a bit small.

Not sure that I get the small part with Flemings; 6'4" and 190 lbs is a good sized point guard. It will be interesting to see the measurements coming out of the combine.

SkyHook wrote:

babyjax13 wrote:If I had to bet on the top 4 I would say Wilson. I love him, but I think he has the most "swing skills" to be a star. The shooting has to develop, and the handle needs to develop a bit. He has a relentless motor, but needs to build some strength. Someone in the top generally does bust, but this really feels like a year where we should be surprised by no one doing so. If I extend it to the top 5 then my answer is whoever is 5th, but specifically Flemings. I think he has a nice looking shot but he is low volume. He doesn't have a deceptive handle at all, and he is a bit small.

Not sure that I get the small part with Flemings; 6'4" and 190 lbs is a good sized point guard. It will be interesting to see the measurements coming out of the combine.

I dont really believe that height or weight tbh. But he was also matched up against 2s a lot, so it could be my eyes being wrong.

Really hard to see any of the first four busting. They have flaws, but their positive qualities are too good/too numerous to be total failures. Picking whoever goes 5th feels like cheating.

Wilson could disappoint by never developing as a shot creator, but he was already showing good feel, drawing fouls, and collecting stocks.

Boozer could turn out to be too exploitable on defense to be a great player but again, he's such a potent force on offense, good at literally everything, that even in the worst case scenario for his defense he'd still be getting on the court.

Peterson could have injury issues and his total lack of passing could limit him, but it's still hard to see how he isn't a really good scorer in the NBA, he's been an elite shot maker from everywhere.

Wagler's terrible finishing at the rim could really be a problem though, if he's a bit one dimensional as a scorer he could be just a guy.

Out of the most likely top 4 group, I think Peterson has the highest bust potential. Then Wilson, Boozer and AJ in that order. Obviously whoever gets drafted 5th has the potential to bust, too, and probably more so than at least the trio I just mentioned. Among all of the poll options, I'd definitely pick Mikel Brown Jr. as the prospect with the highest likelihood of busting.

For me it's clearly AJ. Watching him play, he just doesn't do the ancillary stuff that role players do that wins basketball games. Which is very disappointing for someone with his size and frame.

It's basically heliocentric superstar or bust for him. The other top 4 prospects can provide supplementary skills that can help them stick on playoff teams for a long time even if they don't pan out.

Marvin Martian wrote:For me it's clearly AJ. Watching him play, he just doesn't do the ancillary stuff that role players do that wins basketball games. Which is very disappointing for someone with his size and frame.

It's basically heliocentric superstar or bust for him. The other top 4 prospects can provide supplementary skills that can help them stick on playoff teams for a long time even if they don't pan out.

I really don't see it that way. What stops AJ from playing in the Jaylen Brown role? It's not like he's a heliocentric superstar, and it's not like he excels doing classic role player stuff.

The-Power wrote:

Marvin Martian wrote:For me it's clearly AJ. Watching him play, he just doesn't do the ancillary stuff that role players do that wins basketball games. Which is very disappointing for someone with his size and frame.

It's basically heliocentric superstar or bust for him. The other top 4 prospects can provide supplementary skills that can help them stick on playoff teams for a long time even if they don't pan out.

I really don't see it that way. What stops AJ from playing in the Jaylen Brown role? It's not like he's a heliocentric superstar, and it's not like he excels doing classic role player stuff.

Jaylen Brown doesn't have very impressive on/off numbers. I don't think this is the example that you are looking for

Plus I think Jalen Brown would be a higher end outcome for AJ. I think the other prospects have much better profiles for a team with an established number 1

I voted Acuff because we're seeing in real time how tough it is for small guards like Sheppard and Brunson even if they're given high usage let alone for the numerous small guards that aren't getting minutes at all. He could very well be a superstar but also not play at all. Or if he is played he caps the team's ceiling due to his defense.