RealGM

John Hollinger's top 15 (link if you want to read each profile):

tier 1
1. Boozer
2. Dybantsa
3. Wilson
4. Peterson

tier 2
5. Flemings
6. Wagler
7. Acuff
8. Burries

tier 3
9. Lendeborg
10. Mara

tier 4
11. Ament
12. Lopez
13. Brown

tier 5 (sleepers)
14. Swain
15. de Larrea

Why is Hollinger's opinion so important?

Because historically he has a great track record. Just search "hollinger draft *the year you want*" on Google and check it out for yourself.

Hollinger is pretty wise these years. He combines stats with feels to make reasonable looking mocks.

We like to crap on PER. Now But back in it's day, it was a valuable better than nothing tool.

I think he has his top four in the correct order...

Meh.

My hot take for this draft that might age like milk but I'm sticking by it: Mara will be drafted over Steinbach, and that will end up looking terrible.

For all of Hollinger's reputation in the basketball community, he never really drafted that well for Memphis when he was with the organization. It wasn't until Zach Kleiman arrived in Memphis, did they start doing much better in that regard.

Chuck Everett wrote:For all of Hollinger's reputation in the basketball community, he never really drafted that well for Memphis when he was with the organization. It wasn't until Zach Kleiman arrived in Memphis, did they start doing much better in that regard.

He was the vice President of Basketball operation for a cheap ass owner with Chris Wallace was our GM and he was terrible. He was more in an advisory roll than pulling the triggers guy from what I remember.

Plus our draft picks were late most of those year, our only lottery pick during his time was JJJ at 4. But yes most were bad. Hard to know how much the bad picks were his or Wallace's.

psman2 wrote:

Chuck Everett wrote:For all of Hollinger's reputation in the basketball community, he never really drafted that well for Memphis when he was with the organization. It wasn't until Zach Kleiman arrived in Memphis, did they start doing much better in that regard.

He was the vice President of Basketball operation for a cheap ass owner with Chris Wallace was our GM and he was terrible. He was more in an advisory roll than pulling the triggers guy from what I remember.

Plus our draft picks were late most of those year, our only lottery pick during his time was JJJ at 4. But yes most were bad. Hard to know how much the bad picks were his or Wallace's.

Yeah, Grizzlies drafting was a real wasteland, basically from Conley to JJJ. If they'd gotten even fringe starters out of a couple of their late 1st during the grit and grind era they probably win a championship.

You could see a bit of tussle between (presumably Hollinger's) analytics based approach and someone else's more 'watch the film'/gut instinct over the years he was with the team. Jamal Franklin and Jordan Adams were analytics darlings, but nothing much came of them, albeit with pretty late picks. Thabeet was, allegedly, an ownership pick, and Jarell Martin looked like Hollinger losing a power struggle.

But, yeah, tough to look at the record and conclude that we had an edge on other teams in the scouting/analytics department. He might still be better than most analysts outside actual FOs, though.

Isnt Dillon Brooks one of his draft picks?

Curtis Lemansky wrote:Isnt Dillon Brooks one of his draft picks?

Sure, and maybe the best pick during his tenure.

Really hard to blame him for not hitting on late picks, but it would have nice to have at least a 20% hit rate.

Outside of JJJ I think only 2 of his picks ever got a 2nd contract in the NBA, Brooks and Jevon Carter who was traded after his rookie year.

Zach Kleiman got Cam Spencer, Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson, Vince Williams and that's just with 2nd round picks in the last four years.

I'm just saying, it would be nice if Hollinger had a respectable draft record before people cite him as some kind of guru.

GSWFan1994 wrote:
Why is Hollinger's opinion so important?

Because historically he has a great track record. Just search "hollinger draft *the year you want*" on Google and check it out for yourself.

He does?

2024:

1. Ron Holland
2. Stephon Castle
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Reed Sheppard
5. Alex Star

2023:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Brandon Miller
5. Anthony Black

2022:

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Bennedict Mathurin

Yeah, he lost a lot on his fastball some years ago.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Jcool0 wrote:

GSWFan1994 wrote:
Why is Hollinger's opinion so important?

Because historically he has a great track record. Just search "hollinger draft *the year you want*" on Google and check it out for yourself.

He does?

2024:

1. Ron Holland
2. Stephon Castle
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Reed Sheppard
5. Alex Star

2023:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Brandon Miller
5. Anthony Black

2022:

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Bennedict Mathurin

Give him a pass because 2024 draft was a hot mess, but the others aren't looking great.

JMAC3 wrote:

Jcool0 wrote:

GSWFan1994 wrote:
Why is Hollinger's opinion so important?

Because historically he has a great track record. Just search "hollinger draft *the year you want*" on Google and check it out for yourself.

He does?

2024:

1. Ron Holland
2. Stephon Castle
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Reed Sheppard
5. Alex Star

2023:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Brandon Miller
5. Anthony Black

2022:

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Bennedict Mathurin

Give him a pass because 2024 draft was a hot mess, but the others aren't looking great.

Chet at 4 is a brutal take. And I really liked all those guys rated above him.

Cammo101 wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

Jcool0 wrote:
He does?

2024:

1. Ron Holland
2. Stephon Castle
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Reed Sheppard
5. Alex Star

2023:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Brandon Miller
5. Anthony Black

2022:

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Bennedict Mathurin

Give him a pass because 2024 draft was a hot mess, but the others aren't looking great.

Chet at 4 is a brutal take. And I really liked all those guys rated above him.

He got Wemby #1 correct

Cammo101 wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

Jcool0 wrote:
He does?

2024:

1. Ron Holland
2. Stephon Castle
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Reed Sheppard
5. Alex Star

2023:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Brandon Miller
5. Anthony Black

2022:

1. Jabari Smith Jr.
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Bennedict Mathurin

Give him a pass because 2024 draft was a hot mess, but the others aren't looking great.

Chet at 4 is a brutal take. And I really liked all those guys rated above him.

He had this "center is the least valuable position" view, which caused him to rate a lot of center prospects lower than it should be (check Duren, Mark Williams etc.). He seems to have recognized the shortcomings of this view, so he openly said this year that he is not thinking this anymore.

For all the posts dissing on Hollinger’s previous mocks, make sure you
- post YOUR mock publicly
- come back in 2-3 years and explain to us how you did

Drafting is hard - it’s not just how good a prospect is, but more on how much better they will become. GMs have an army of scouts, tons of film and they still don’t get it right 100%. There are so many “redraft” articles out there showing all the misses. And that doesn’t even include bad ownership - if your boss tells you to draft someone, you do it even if it could reflect poorly on you in the future.

Hollinger isn’t perfect, but no one is. He’s got good insight - unlike a lot of writers, he’s actually done real drafting.

theBigLip wrote:For all the posts dissing on Hollinger’s previous mocks, make sure you
- post YOUR mock publicly
- come back in 2-3 years and explain to us how you did

Drafting is hard - it’s not just how good a prospect is, but more on how much better they will become. GMs have an army of scouts, tons of film and they still don’t get it right 100%. There are so many “redraft” articles out there showing all the misses. And that doesn’t even include bad ownership - if your boss tells you to draft someone, you do it even if it could reflect poorly on you in the future.

Hollinger isn’t perfect, but no one is. He’s got good insight - unlike a lot of writers, he’s actually done real drafting.

I read this post and was like "I wonder where I had Chet that year on my final board?" Went back and looked and had him at #4. LOL.

It's funny how after a couple years the new narrative makes you forget the old one, where Chet was coming off an injury and there were 3 other really high level prospects in that draft.

Cammo101 wrote:

theBigLip wrote:For all the posts dissing on Hollinger’s previous mocks, make sure you
- post YOUR mock publicly
- come back in 2-3 years and explain to us how you did

Drafting is hard - it’s not just how good a prospect is, but more on how much better they will become. GMs have an army of scouts, tons of film and they still don’t get it right 100%. There are so many “redraft” articles out there showing all the misses. And that doesn’t even include bad ownership - if your boss tells you to draft someone, you do it even if it could reflect poorly on you in the future.

Hollinger isn’t perfect, but no one is. He’s got good insight - unlike a lot of writers, he’s actually done real drafting.

I read this post and was like "I wonder where I had Chet that year on my final board?" Went back and looked and had him at #4. LOL.

It's funny how after a couple years the new narrative makes you forget the old one, where Chet was coming off an injury and there were 3 other really high level prospects in that draft.

Chet looked pretty skinny. I thought Mathurin was going to be the steal of the draft. Was happy the Pistons took Ivey regardless. But wow, his career took a bad turn for the worst. Every GM would have taken him top 5 (maybe 6-9, worst case), and in a redraft, he will be in the 20s if at all.