Poke Holes in My Draft Comps!

[ecuhus1981]

Ok everyone, please offer me some constructive criticism, and maybe some better comps with evidence to support your case. Here are my comparisons for the likely top 10 picks in the draft. I attempted to most closely match draft day age, physical attributes (height, weight, wingspan), statistical outliers and general style of play. Sometimes, there wasn't a close match, but that's the fun of this challenge! Here it is:

AJ Dybantsa - Andrew Wiggins
Darryn Peterson - Jamal Murray
Cam Boozer - Kevin Love
Caleb Wilson - Shawn Kemp
Keaton Wagler - Kon Knueppel
Darius Acuff - Darius Garland
Mikel Brown - Coby White
Kingston Fleming - Elfrid Payton
Brayden Burries - Dion Waiters
Nate Ament - Anthony Randolph

[The-Power]

When you want others to offer constructive criticism and use evidence to support their case, it's really on you to put in at least the same effort you expect from others and justify/substantiate your comparisons.

[ecuhus1981]

When you want others to offer constructive criticism and use evidence to support their case, it's really on you to put in at least the same effort you expect from others and justify/substantiate your comparisons.

Sure!

I don't visit this area of RealGM often, and I didn't want to suck the oxygen out of the debate as a newcomer around here. But OK, I'll expound on my reasoning. Push back, show me my blind spots!

[ecuhus1981]

Dybantsa/Wiggins - taller but similar build of big SF, HUGE vertical, big usage and scoring but not elite at efficiency, concerning lack of steals, blocks and DEF Rtg compared to other elite SF prospects, similar age and draft position

[ecuhus1981]

Peterson/Murray - different athletes but honestly, Jamal has sneaky bounce! Low college AST rate but has lead guard bona fides from HS and INTL competition, strong build, 3 level scorer but not the downhill slasher you might expect given the tools, more of a pullup threat

[ecuhus1981]

Boozer/Love - stat stuffing son of an NBA player, similar height, weight and wingspan, similarly dominant all around offensive impact and efficiency. Similar defensive concerns, is not a turnstile but limited due to footspeed, vertical leap and lateral movement

[ecuhus1981]

Wilson/Kemp - I'm showing my age, Caleb compared to Marvin Bagley and Jonathan Isaac more recent drafts, but I don't love either of those comps. More of a highlight, elite big play defender than an actual overall elite defender. Shawn was an all world athlete who could score efficiently around the rim, could move like a SF but couldn't handle or shoot like one. Ultimately needed to be a PF and moonlight as an uptempo C to stay in the floor, I think that will be even more true in today's NBA. Both came into the league older than you might think but inexperienced relative to peers

[ecuhus1981]

Wagler/Knueppel - this one surprised me at first, but the hyper efficient big volume 3PT shooting, super elite OFF Rtg, height weight wingspan, age and AST:TO similarities sold me. I can squint and see it

[ecuhus1981]

Acuff/Garland - I didn't just do this because they are both Dariuses! I thought Fox or Rose would be closer comps, but both were way better defenders in college and neither were the high level of 3pt shooter that Acuff is. Garland had his freshmen cut shooter due to injury, the shooting volume, efficiency and playmaking similarities are there. Very similar height, though Acuff has a stronger build and longer wingspan

[ecuhus1981]

Brown/White - same height, similar frame and wingspan, struggled with efficiency in college but both had reasons. Bursts of athleticism and gets hot from 3, questionable as primary initiator due to AST:TO, poor effort defensively

[ecuhus1981]

Fleming/Payton - I love him, but the wingspan and shaky J gives me pause that he'll translate to the NBA. Elfrid is the same height, similar build and I feel struggled with the length and strength of the league versus college

[ecuhus1981]

Burries/Waiters - big bodied tweener utility guard, high STL rate, scores in bunches, old for their class

[ecuhus1981]

Ament/Randolph - tall and wiry but not as big a wingspan as you'd expect, low efficiency buoyed by high FTA rate, Jack of All Trades, master of none mystery box type of combo forward. Anthony was a better defender but Nate has more SF upside

[FrodoBaggins]

Boozer/Love - stat stuffing son of an NBA player, similar height, weight and wingspan, similarly dominant all around offensive impact and efficiency. Similar defensive concerns, is not a turnstile but limited due to footspeed, vertical leap and lateral movement

The obvious critique is the difference in general on-ball creation and the requisite skills: ball handling, slashing off the dribble, pull-up shooting, passing with a live dribble, playmaking, etc.

Kevin has never run the offense like Cameron did/does. Isolation with a live dribble from the perimeter, pick-and-roll plays as the ball handler, leading the fastbreak. Passing from the elbow, post, as a screener/hand-off hub, and outlets & hit-aheads following defensive rebounds? Sure. Love's a good passer, don't get me wrong, but it's like Antoine Walker/Chris Webber/Kevin Garnett kind of playmaking versus a Brad Miller/Brad Daugherty/Karl Malone type. Dynamic point forwards versus potent post-passing bigs.

Boozer's closer to a LeBron/Tatum/Pippen/Hill kind of playmaker than many people realize. Like Paolo with a brain. Actual high IQ, awareness, and decision-making.

They play defense differently, too. Boozer was a steals/deflections guy in college, whereas Love opted for a more traditional shot-blocking approach. It's hard to separate ability, habits/tendencies, and role. Both are strong defensive rebounders and post defenders. Cameron is more cerebral defensively, using good positioning and awareness to disrupt offensive flow and generate turnovers with apt help defense, rotations, and off-ball defense. That's the primary differentiator, IMO.

[ecuhus1981]

Boozer/Love - stat stuffing son of an NBA player, similar height, weight and wingspan, similarly dominant all around offensive impact and efficiency. Similar defensive concerns, is not a turnstile but limited due to footspeed, vertical leap and lateral movement

The obvious critique is the difference in general on-ball creation and the requisite skills: ball handling, slashing off the dribble, pull-up shooting, passing with a live dribble, playmaking, etc.

Kevin has never run the offense like Cameron did/does. Isolation with a live dribble from the perimeter, pick-and-roll plays as the ball handler, leading the fastbreak. Passing from the elbow, post, as a screener/hand-off hub, and outlets & hit-aheads following defensive rebounds? Sure. Love's a good passer, don't get me wrong, but it's like Antoine Walker/Chris Webber/Kevin Garnett kind of playmaking versus a Brad Miller/Brad Daugherty/Karl Malone type. Dynamic point forwards versus potent post-passing bigs.

Boozer's closer to a LeBron/Tatum/Pippen/Hill kind of playmaker than many people realize. Like Paolo with a brain. Actual high IQ, awareness, and decision-making.

They play defense differently, too. Boozer was a steals/deflections guy in college, whereas Love opted for a more traditional shot-blocking approach. It's hard to separate ability, habits/tendencies, and role. Both are strong defensive rebounders and post defenders. Cameron is more cerebral defensively, using good positioning and awareness to disrupt offensive flow and generate turnovers with apt help defense, rotations, and off-ball defense. That's the primary differentiator, IMO.

All good points, thank you. I would gently suggest you re-examine Kevin's time at UCLA and Minnesota. He ran those offenses, not just short roll or big to big playmaking, but truly running it. You're right, their approaches to defense are different. It's not a carbon copy by any means, just the closest I saw.

You threw out Banchero and the Mount Rushmore of modern day SFs in terms of playmaking comps, but I don't sense that you feel Cam's career will echo any of these. Is there a singular former player you feel that better encapsulates what you project for Boozer?

[FrodoBaggins]

Boozer/Love - stat stuffing son of an NBA player, similar height, weight and wingspan, similarly dominant all around offensive impact and efficiency. Similar defensive concerns, is not a turnstile but limited due to footspeed, vertical leap and lateral movement

The obvious critique is the difference in general on-ball creation and the requisite skills: ball handling, slashing off the dribble, pull-up shooting, passing with a live dribble, playmaking, etc.

Kevin has never run the offense like Cameron did/does. Isolation with a live dribble from the perimeter, pick-and-roll plays as the ball handler, leading the fastbreak. Passing from the elbow, post, as a screener/hand-off hub, and outlets & hit-aheads following defensive rebounds? Sure. Love's a good passer, don't get me wrong, but it's like Antoine Walker/Chris Webber/Kevin Garnett kind of playmaking versus a Brad Miller/Brad Daugherty/Karl Malone type. Dynamic point forwards versus potent post-passing bigs.

Boozer's closer to a LeBron/Tatum/Pippen/Hill kind of playmaker than many people realize. Like Paolo with a brain. Actual high IQ, awareness, and decision-making.

They play defense differently, too. Boozer was a steals/deflections guy in college, whereas Love opted for a more traditional shot-blocking approach. It's hard to separate ability, habits/tendencies, and role. Both are strong defensive rebounders and post defenders. Cameron is more cerebral defensively, using good positioning and awareness to disrupt offensive flow and generate turnovers with apt help defense, rotations, and off-ball defense. That's the primary differentiator, IMO.

All good points, thank you. I would gently suggest you re-examine Kevin's time at UCLA and Minnesota. He ran those offenses, not just short roll or big to big playmaking, but truly running it. You're right, their approaches to defense are different. It's not a carbon copy by any means, just the closest I saw.

You threw out Banchero and the Mount Rushmore of modern day SFs in terms of playmaking comps, but I don't sense that you feel Cam's career will echo any of these. Is there a singular former player you feel that better encapsulates what you project for Boozer?

Probably 2018-19 Detroit Blake Griffin, if we're limiting it to a single player with no qualifiers.

Not that that's his "ceiling" or level of projected impact, more so a stylistic comparison regarding a similar position, role, physical tools, skillset, and play style. He's probably the best example of a Big Wing-Hub Big hybrid archetype that indexes closest to Cam.

Sengun has a somewhat similar profile, but he's a poor shooter and more position-locked to the C position because of it.

IIRC, the 250+ lb Big Wings (LeBron, Paolo, Randle) all drove around like 10-12 times per game, while Jokic about 4-6. 2018-19 Blake and recent Sengun were squarely in between, around 7-8. I think that fairly represents the midpoint between the two archetypes of Big Wing and Hub Big.

[ecuhus1981]

I hear you here, thank you. Post injury Blake was still a very effective point forward, that's a good comp.

[Cammo101]

AJ Dybantsa - Andrew Wiggins

Not seeing this one at all. Wiggins was all athlete, little skill coming out of college. That ain't AJ. TMac is the more apt comp IMO.

Darryn Peterson - Jamal Murray

I don't hate this one, though I have my doubts Peterson can stick at point guard in the NBA. He plays a lot like Ray Allen, even if he isn't quite the shooter Ray was.

Cam Boozer - Kevin Love

Not sure a great comp exists for Boozer. This one is as good as any of the others I see thrown around. Boozer is a better athlete though.

Caleb Wilson - Shawn Kemp

Not sure Wilson is this kind of rarified air athlete. KG is a better style of play comp IMO.

Keaton Wagler - Kon Knueppel

Not seeing this one. Radically different body type and style of play. I get Brandon Roy vibes from Wagler.

Darius Acuff - Darius Garland

This isn't bad, but offensively he reminds me a lot of Chris Paul. Not Chris Paul defensively though.

Mikel Brown - Coby White

Brown is a radically better athlete than White. He has some Garland to his game. A little Dame Lillard as well.

Kingston Fleming - Elfrid Payton

They look alike, but Flemings is a much better offensive player to me.

Brayden Burries - Dion Waiters

He's a younger player himself, but I think he plays a lot like Dylan Harper from last years draft.

Nate Ament - Anthony Randolph

I like this comp.

[King Ken]

Ok everyone, please offer me some constructive criticism, and maybe some better comps with evidence to support your case. Here are my comparisons for the likely top 10 picks in the draft. I attempted to most closely match draft day age, physical attributes (height, weight, wingspan), statistical outliers and general style of play. Sometimes, there wasn't a close match, but that's the fun of this challenge! Here it is:

AJ Dybantsa - Andrew Wiggins
Darryn Peterson - Jamal Murray
Cam Boozer - Kevin Love
Caleb Wilson - Shawn Kemp
Keaton Wagler - Kon Knueppel
Darius Acuff - Darius Garland
Mikel Brown - Coby White
Kingston Fleming - Elfrid Payton
Brayden Burries - Dion Waiters
Nate Ament - Anthony Randolph

It's draft comps which are all bad no matter who's saying it as everyone has their own game. So it's easy to poke holes in mines much less yours

[tmorgan]

I’m all for any positive comp on Wagler, because I want to believe he’s a couple years and body improvement away from a star guard. It really can’t be Knueppel, though. The body types are way too different for that to work.

Wagler plays kinda slow, or “controlled”, like Cade, if you want to spin it more positively. But unlike Cade, and unlike Kon, he’s a twig. I think he has more ball control skills than Kon will ever likely have, and may end up better in that regard than Cade as well, but I doubt he’ll ever be as stout as those guys, which means he’s going to have to be a lot more crafty to get free.

No one should be comped to the current MVP, but if Wagler is going to hit anywhere near his top outcomes, that’s the guy he needs to steal some moves from. SGA is a one-of-one, but that doesn’t mean Wagler can’t be some kind of lesser version in the same general style.