How do you overcome fear a player will be a bust?

OkcSinceSGA · Post #1 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Sat Jul 4, 2026 5:40 am

Wagler being picked over MBJ scares me. Seems like a great kid who will be in the league for a long time. But the evidence is just stacked against him to be a star. Decent HS player at best, lacking athleticism. MBJ and Acuff were both superstars in HS, 5 star recruits. Clippers haven’t picked top 5 since Blake Griffin in 2009. I can’t help but feel like they may regret this pick.

Given that they just traded Kawhi… Wagler HAS to pan out to be a star or the trajectory of the franchise is tremendously impacted. He cannot be Luke Kennard 2.0 or something. Anyone else post draft feel anxiety the player won’t pan out? How do you cope with that idea? Do you think Wagler’s low ceiling?

BigGargamel · Post #2 » by **BigGargamel** » Sat Jul 4, 2026 6:09 am

Well, you aren't playing Acuff and Garland together if you have any hopes and dreams of winning basketball games so that's a non topic.

So it comes down to Brown and Wagler. Wagler had, unquestionably, a better college year. Who cares about high school star status? How many 5 stars end up being nothing? Ahmad Bradshaw was a five star, and now he's nowhere to be found. It's strange that Wagler was such a low recruit, but whatever, he made those rankings look foolish.

I know you tried hard to convince yourself that Brown was a great prospect and the clear choice for the Clippers, but everyone thinks Wagler is better. He may not be, it may be the wrong pick, but you just have to wait and find out. I, for one, think the Clippers made the right choice. I wasn't a Brown fan all year. I understand why he went where he did, but it would have made little sense to pick him over Wagler. After the top four, Wagler was in that next tier by himself.

OkcSinceSGA · Post #3 » by **OkcSinceSGA** » Sat Jul 4, 2026 6:21 am

BigGargamel wrote:Well, you aren't playing Acuff and Garland together if you have any hopes and dreams of winning basketball games so that's a non topic.

So it comes down to Brown and Wagler. Wagler had, unquestionably, a better college year. Who cares about high school star status? How many 5 stars end up being nothing? Ahmad Bradshaw was a five star, and now he's nowhere to be found. It's strange that Wagler was such a low recruit, but whatever, he made those rankings look foolish.

I know you tried hard to convince yourself that Brown was a great prospect and the clear choice for the Clippers, but everyone thinks Wagler is better. He may not be, it may be the wrong pick, but you just have to wait and find out. I, for one, think the Clippers made the right choice. I wasn't a Brown fan all year. I understand why he went where he did, but it would have made little sense to pick him over Wagler. After the top four, Wagler was in that next tier by himself.

It seems pretty split from what I saw on MBJ vs Wagler. But yea, obviously there is no REAL way to know for sure. It’s not “trying hard to convince” so much as being nervous about what skills are harder to improve or that translate. Guess you just wait it out. Since SGA and before that Blake I never had any investment really in rookies in the last 15+ years.

ReggiesKnicks · Post #4 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Mon Jul 6, 2026 4:16 am

Haliburton was 177 in HS.
Wagler was 150 in HS.

The reality is most highly talented NBA players are highly ranked in high school.

For Wagler, understanding the NBA game is all about read-and-react and processing speed offensively along with skill. Wagler has a ton of skill, he is also an incredibly high-level processor.

It's incredibly rare for a player with high processing ability and high skill-level to fail at the NBA level. That gives him a high floor.

I would be far more worried about the boom-bust guards who have minimal size and questionable skill (Flemings) or lack elite traits (Burries) failing compared to Wagler. Even Acuff really needs to hit his higher ceilings offensively to have a sustainable NBA career compared to Wagler whose floor is high as a connector and shooter.

NO-KG-AI · Post #5 » by **NO-KG-AI** » Mon Jul 6, 2026 9:53 pm

You don’t. You just wait and see, and then when you see a few flashes, as a fan of the team, you just consciously decide the flashes mean more than the poor moments and hype yourself up and just hope you are right later :lol:

Natural_Bridge · Post #6 » by **Natural_Bridge** » Fri Jul 10, 2026 2:53 pm

you just do what every pretend internet draft expert does, if the guy you hated turns out great, you just keep moving the goalposts. LaMelo Ball for example went from "he's gonna be a mega bust" to "he'll never be an all star" to "he'll never win in the playoffs" and who knows what itll be next now that he's on a good team

and if a guy you like turns out to be a bust you just say "he's only x age" "bad situation" "chauncey billups didn't break out till he was 28 so we'll just have to wait and see" and you just kick the can until everyone forgets what you said

FarBeyondDriven · Post #7 » by **FarBeyondDriven** » Fri Jul 10, 2026 7:22 pm

Natural_Bridge wrote:you just do what every pretend internet draft expert does, if the guy you hated turns out great, you just keep moving the goalposts. LaMelo Ball for example went from "he's gonna be a mega bust" to "he'll never be an all star" to "he'll never win in the playoffs" and who knows what itll be next now that he's on a good team

and if a guy you like turns out to be a bust you just say "he's only x age" "bad situation" "chauncey billups didn't break out till he was 28 so we'll just have to wait and see" and you just kick the can until everyone forgets what you said

while there is a lot of that going on the problem is people make silly declarations either way way too early. Usage determines success and some get it early only to fade and some get none initially and are written off only to get it later and prove haters wrong. We say we should wait until 4-5 years down the road but nobody ever really pays attention that long or revisits drafts and draft takes after the dust has settled probably because takes would get exposed and goalposts needing to be moved.

One thing I'll give people grace for is if a prospect lacks motor or is a knucklehead. We aren't in these interviews or locker rooms. We aren't privy to their background checks and surrounding cast/families. We internet draft experts can't possibly know what's in their heads and hearts. It certainly colors my evaluations. I just assume that a 6'10" kid who can jump out of the gym but had a questionable handle and was rattled by pressure would drill all-day and everyday to improve his handle and recognition skills but that's clearly not what is going on for many. Too often they're chasing a rap career, women or playing video games. So when these types bust it's not really predictable imho.

tmorgan · Post #8 » by **tmorgan** » Sat Jul 11, 2026 5:39 am

All I’ll say on Wagler is this… be a little patient. He’s not coming into the league ready to be a big positive contributor. He’s from the Cade archetype, but with far less experience as “the man” at this point in his life. Sure, he could bust — but you can say that about all but five or six guys in this draft. I think the clear top four and Yaxel are safe bets to have good careers, but I wouldn’t bet with confidence on anyone else.

So, as the Clippers picked 5th, your options were Yaxel or take a bigger chance on a younger guy with talent. I know you preferred MBJ, but I don’t see him as any safer than Wagler or Acuff or anyone else. Keaton will likely take more time than quite a few of the guys taken after him, but it seems like the Clips have that time to give, no?