2024 Redraft + projected ceiling

babyjax13 · Post #1 » by **babyjax13** » Fri Jul 17, 2026 6:47 am

Thought a 2024 redraft would be fun, with the bonus of people guessing where the projected ceiling of players is (if you want). Below I have some fun tools to do it, including one I recently found:

https://statfuel.online/

I thought this was pretty fun, it is future stat predictions for NBA players and it includes a "potential score" based on its projections. I have in spoilers the first round + Ajay Mitchell, Kyle Filipowski, and Jaylen Wells.

It results in a pretty different list than sorting with BPM or VORP on bbref: https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2024.html

Or by sorting by other stats with databallr: https://draftballr.com/redraft/2024

Top 20:
1. Matas Buzelis (92)
2. Stephon Castle (90)
3. Reed Sheppard (88)
4. Donovan Clingan (82)
5. Jaylon Tyson (81)
6. Ajay Mitchell (69)
7. Zach Edey (65)
8. Isaiah Collier (62)
9. Kyle Filipowski (55)
10. Alex Sarr (54)
11. Cody Williams (48)
12. Kyshawn George (45)
13. Ron Holland (42)
14. Jaylen Wells (41)
15. Kel'el Ware (39)
16. Ja'Kobe Walter (39)
17. Bub Carrington (36)
18. Rob Dillingham (32)
19. Nikola Topic (31)
20. Yves Missi (31)

Spoiler:

babyjax13 · Post #2 » by **babyjax13** » Fri Jul 17, 2026 6:59 am

I am going to just do the top 20 (in parentheses I have where they were on my big-board):

Ceiling: top-2 player on a contender, makes more than one all-star team
1. Stephon Castle (13, ooph)
2. Alex Sarr (1)

Ceiling: perhaps makes an all-star team, probably starts for several seasons
3. Matas Buzelis (5)
4. Donovan Clingan (11, ooph)
5. Ajay Mitchell (32, ooph)
6. Kyshawn George (2)

Ceiling: might start for several seasons, could bust still, or have injury issues, or be more of a really good bench player
7. Kel'el Ware (9)
8. Zach Edey (19, ooph))
9. Zaccharie Risacher (10)
10. Jaylon Tyson (36, ooph)
11. Reed Sheppard (7)
12. Ron Holland (3)
13. Jared McCain (18)
14. Ja'Kobe Walter (20)
15. Jaylen Wells (44, ooph)
16. Nikola Topic (8)

Ceiling: nice bench player
17. Kyle Filipowski (27)
18. Isaiah Collier (21)
19. Cam Spencer (50, ooph)
20. Pelle Larrson (64, ooph)

tmorgan · Post #3 » by **tmorgan** » Sat Jul 18, 2026 3:40 am

Holland is an interesting one at this point. He either gains the confidence, shot selection, and consistency needed to be a solid shooter… or he doesn’t.

If he doesn’t, in another two years he gets a modest second contract with an AAV lower than his rookie deal (picked 5th) and likely plays that out and a third deal as a niche Thybulle-like veteran that no one really pays any attention to unless his team has great success. His defense is outstanding and his hustle is even better than that, but his outside shot doesn’t go in and his offensive decision-making is kind of spazzy.

If he does, he’s a viable starter on a contender. Reliable league average three point shooting with his defense and hustle is in extreme demand. If he gets it together this year and next, his second contract will be large, because there will be a lot of suitors looking for a lockdown wing you can’t just leave open (unlike Ausar, whose shot is completely hopeless, sad to say).

So he’s either a minor bust (that draft wasn’t great, obviously) or a big win, given the alternatives at the time. TBD. The former is more likely, but the latter is so enticing that I hope the Pistons ride it out.

ReggiesKnicks · Post #4 » by **ReggiesKnicks** » Sat Jul 18, 2026 5:30 am

My calculus has changed significantly for many of these players since draft night. Think of these as tiers, no order.

ATG
-
Perennial All-NBA
-
All-Star
-Stephon Castle

Long-term Starter
-Alex Sarr (Most likely to move up a tier)
-Donovan Clingan
-Matas Buzelis
-Ajay Mitchell
-Reed Sheppard
-Zach Edey (Injuries have a high-probability of derailing his career)
-Kyshawn George

Fringe-Starter/Long-term Rotation Level
-Oso Ighodaro
-Kyle Filipowski
-Pelle Larsson
-Ja'Kobe Walter
-Ron Holland (Could see him as a Long-Term Starter if he develops offensively)
-Jaylon Tyson
-Jamal Shead
-Tristan Da Silva
-Jaylen Wells
-Cam Spencer
-Yves Missi
-Isaiah Collier
-Daniss Jenkins
-Kel'el Ware

Bounce Around the League
-Ryan Dunn
-Adem Bona
-Quinten Post
-Baylor Scheierman
-Jared McCain
-Johnny Furphy
-Zaccharie Risache
-Terrence Shannon Jr

The remainder likely somewhere in the last tier or out of the league in 2-3 years.

King Ken · Post #5 » by **King Ken** » Sat Jul 18, 2026 8:20 am

Risacher is a lot better than people are giving him credit for. Last year wasn't good but after that back injury against Phoenix, he just never had the pop till recently in France. Before that injury, that wasn't a question.

People should give him grace but I know he won't get it.

Edey was my #1 prospect and injuries have kept him from the top.

After that, I really didn't see anyone I thought was good for year 1. I was fine a range of tier 4 guys.

Risacher, looked like a clear potential role playing stud as a rookie but looked like a non impact rotational player last year after the PHX game back injury. Incomplete grade for me.

Reed Sheppard, I comp him to Mark Price but hasn't translated to the modern game even though he's dominant in the Gleague so he's not far but he has to figure out consistency.

Castle, I felt he had legit upside but his floor could be higher. Man, he upside delivered. He ended up 215 and that took his game to another level. Easily the best player in this class and already a top 50 player.

I wasn't a Sarr guy then and I am not one now. Just hate how he feels the game and I don't like his progressive impact. He does have some defensive impact and when his 3s are falling, he has some data value but progressive impact like Dyson Daniels or Draymond Green, he's ass at that and for me. That means you have no impact on winning. Not a fan but I can see why some will be high on him. Especially getting to play with Trae but I think that could expose him.

Clingan, I was always higher on his ceiling than others and he's already a top 100 player to me and is on the path of top 65.

I really don't remember much of this class.

Matas is decent. I am curious to see his development. Always been a talented guy, can he be an impact guy.

Ware definitely goes higher on a redraft but life in Milwaukee will be a lot different than Miami. Ask Hassan.

Cody Williams SL early work and his 2nd half of last year was promising. Keeping an eye on him.

The 2nd round got steals like Mitchell, Spencer, and Post.

I do think you have some intriguing role players outside of the lottery to keep an eye on. One thing about this draft was the tier 4 quality was off the charts but everyone was tier 4. Edey might have been the only one I would have considered for tier 3.5 but age and projected offensive regression knocked him at the end.

Overall, Castle hit his upside and for that, would go #1 ij a redraft and I don't know if anyone can catch up. Edey could have been high af too but injuries hurt him.