2007 draft: overrated?

[dingclancy]

With so much hype surrounding this draft and after almost a season of evaluation - is this draft the best since the Iverson class? Magic class? Lebron class?

[Patterns]

With so much hype surrounding this draft and after almost a season of evaluation - is this draft the best since the Iverson class? Magic class? Lebron class?

Draft was average and Magic's class? His class sucked.

[JDubJazz]

We won't be able to make that judgement until we see Oden on the court. I think Horford has been excellent and Durant has been spotty, but he definitely has McGrady like potential. I'm not willing to write off 2007 yet.

[legacyinthemakin89c]

Durant is going to be a top ten player in this league eventually, his team is just terrible and they've been asking too much from a rookie. If Oden comes back and is as good as advertised and Horford continues to improve, this draft class will be a good one.

The hype surrounding it was how deep it was, not necessarily how great the players were.

[Billy]

I think like JDubJazz said, we need to see Oden before we can really start coming to a full opinion--at least for me.

But also, I think this class was overrated no matter how you cut it. Oden was supposed to be a top 3 center in the entire NBA coming in. Durant was expected to score 25 ppg while averaging a near triple double. Conley was the next Chris Paul.

Obviously, we won't know if Oden will be a top 3 center in the league when he steps on the court for the first time until he plays. We know Durant wasn't the complete monster that he was made out to be, and that Conley isn't Chris Paul--but really was that realistic to begin with? They might still get there, but these expectations were incredibly high.

[skones]

Give it two years and you'll see how deep this class is.

[some_rand]

magic i think it was said on draft night that there were gonna be 10 players from this class averaging 10 points thier rookie year.....not so much

[theGreatRC]

The 06 draft was proclaimed "weak" after Roy won it in a landslide. Gay, Foye, Bargs, Aldridge, Brewer, Thomas and others are good players.

[_BBIB_]

I can't believe people keep stating this.

First of all, the #1 pick in this class hasn't even played.


Imagine the 03 class if Lebron didn't play his first year.

Speaking of that class, Wade and Bosh didn't exactly set the league on fire their first season in the league.


In this class you have Horford nearly averaging a double double as a rookie, you have Durant who's shown great potential along with other players with tremendous upside in Young, YJL, etc.


Wait more than 1 year before rating a draft class

[yearsago]

Durant was expected to score 25 ppg while averaging a near triple double. Conley was the next Chris Paul.

.

Expected by who?

[abark]

I can't believe people keep stating this.

First of all, the #1 pick in this class hasn't even played.


Imagine the 03 class if Lebron didn't play his first year.

Speaking of that class, Wade and Bosh didn't exactly set the league on fire their first season in the league.


In this class you have Horford nearly averaging a double double as a rookie, you have Durant who's shown great potential along with other players with tremendous upside in Young, YJL, etc.


Wait more than 1 year before rating a draft class

Wade averaged 16/4/5 on almost 47% shooting. Bosh put up 12/7/1. Not many rookies set the league on fire, but it could be argued that Wade and Bosh were more impressive as rookies than Horford and Durant.

[Spykes]

The 06 draft was proclaimed "weak" after Roy won it in a landslide. Gay, Foye, Bargs, Aldridge, Brewer, Thomas and others are good players.

This is exactly why you can't judge a draft class in just one season. Everyone say the 06 draft was weak, but so far it's been quite the opposite. Even late 1st round guys have made big impacts like Milsap, Gibson, Rondo and Farmar. Just gotta have some patience.

[JoeT]

I think like JDubJazz said, we need to see Oden before we can really start coming to a full opinion--at least for me.

But also, I think this class was overrated no matter how you cut it. Oden was supposed to be a top 3 center in the entire NBA coming in. Durant was expected to score 25 ppg while averaging a near triple double. Conley was the next Chris Paul.

Obviously, we won't know if Oden will be a top 3 center in the league when he steps on the court for the first time until he plays. We know Durant wasn't the complete monster that he was made out to be, and that Conley isn't Chris Paul--but really was that realistic to begin with? They might still get there, but these expectations were incredibly high.

Huh? Who expected Durant to average a near triple double, this season or ever? Who expected Oden to be a top 3 center from day one? Who expected Conley to be the next Chris Paul when he wasn't even a lottery pick, or expected to be in the draft at all, prior to the NCAA tournament? I'm really struggling to figure out where you came up with these expectations, because DX certainly wasn't hyping these players to that extent.

[ISB]

Lebron as a rookie:
39.5 mpg, 20.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.9 apg, 3.45 turnovers, 41.7% fg, 29% 3pt, 75.4% FT

Durant so far:
33.5 mpg, 19.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 3.0 turnovers, 41.4% fg, 28% 3pt, 87.3% FT


Considering how much more physically developed Lebron was as a rookie (despite being a year younger,) thats a pretty solid comparison for Durant.

Really the only difference is that Lebron is a significantly better passer. The rest of the stats are largely just a result of Lebron getting slightly more minutes.

This draft was always about Durant/Oden, who were both supposed to be HoF caliber players, and Oden hasn't played yet.

[DanTown8587]

Yeah, this draft is way to early to proclaim "Overrated" and if you look at it, this draft might give two or three studs (Oden, Durant, Al Thornton) solid starters (Conley, Landry, Horford) and a bunch of guys who have yet to get consistent enough minutes to show how good they could be (Wright, Cook, TYoung, NYoung, Law, Wright, Hawes). All those guys listed have shown some very good games so far and none of them have gotten great minutes.

[Billy]

Sorry, I guess I let exaggeration get the best of me. But, there was plenty of discussions on the trade board that would come back to anything short of Lebron or Kobe wouldn't move one of those top picks.

Forgive me for some exaggeration. I was simply trying to highlight what I felt was unreasonable expecations to begin with. Oden and Durant were being treated by most as future hall of famers.

My whole point, which obviously was overshadowed by my exaggerations (again I apologize) was that there is almost no way that the 07 class could not be overrated. Not at all because I think the players are bad or won't live up to expectations, but that the expectations were so high to begin with that it would be practically impossible for this class to not be overrated for at least a few years until guys start maturing and learning the game.

[ISB]

Sorry, I guess I let exaggeration get the best of me. But, there was plenty of discussions on the trade board that would come back to anything short of Lebron or Kobe wouldn't move one of those top picks.

well, to be fair, thats still pretty much the case. I mean I don't think Seattle would move Durant for anyone other than Lebron, Howard, or maybe Paul. I think people just expected a little too much right out of the gate. A lot of these guys are still just 18-19, and only a handful of players have had significant production at that age.

[ponder276]

I think people were looking at Durant's UPSIDE as Tmac, and Oden's UPSIDE as David Robinson, but that doesn't mean they're actually expected to be that good, just that it's possible (although Durant could definitely be as good as Tmac). To me there have been a few players who are under performing (Conley and Brewer jump to mind, although I still see a ton of potential in Conley), but also some nice surprises (Thad, Al Thornton, Nick Young, Big Baby, etc.). It's too early to judge this draft, especially since Oden hasn't even played a game yet.

[UGA Hayes]

You gus are way off. This year's draft class as a whole is having an amazing rookie season. The problem is that people see the players who have been in the league for a while and assume they were awesome when they were rookies. For context's sake, those so-so number the guy above posted for LeBron was one of the better rookie seasons ever. Last year's rookie class could only dream of playing as well as this year's class.

[JoeT]

Lebron as a rookie:
39.5 mpg, 20.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.9 apg, 3.45 turnovers, 41.7% fg, 29% 3pt, 75.4% FT

Durant so far:
33.5 mpg, 19.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 3.0 turnovers, 41.4% fg, 28% 3pt, 87.3% FT


Considering how much more physically developed Lebron was as a rookie (despite being a year younger,) thats a pretty solid comparison for Durant.

Really the only difference is that Lebron is a significantly better passer. The rest of the stats are largely just a result of Lebron getting slightly more minutes.

This draft was always about Durant/Oden, who were both supposed to be HoF caliber players, and Oden hasn't played yet.

I picked up on the comparison in statlines with Durant and Lebron early in the season. Durant was in the 39ish area for FG% last I checked, and I suspected he'd catch up to Lebron's mark by season end, and indeed he has. As you said, they're obviously not nearly the same player, but expecting Durant to make significant strides with his scoring efficiency while still maintaining high production isn't much of a stretch.

Also, another thing to look at is how bad their supporting casts are/were. Lebron had Boozer, Ilgauskas, and then some combination of Ricky Davis/Miles (who were traded midseason) and McInnis/Eric Williams (who were traded for). Durant has Wilcox, Earl Watson, Nick Collison, Jeff Green, and Damien Wilkins. With Wally traded, it's interesting to note that Durant and Wilcox are the only players on the team averaging double figures scoring. By NBA standards, I don't think Durant has a solid #2 or #3 scorer alongside him right now. On top of that, his point guards aren't too stellar either. Lebron had a tough team once you get past Boozer and Ilgauskas, but they're better than anyone Durant has right now, as his cast takes no attention off him whatsoever. If he gets some scorers in there to take the pressure off him, things could quickly change.