RealGM

This is actually a two part question.

A. Who, selected really early, is most likely to be a giant bust?

B. Who is most likely to be selected WAY higher than any other team would have consider him?

My answers...

A. Eric Gordon or DeAndre Jordan

B. Joey Dorsey(not necessarily a bust, but I can see some team reaching and taking him in the lottery.)

Hoffa was taken as a (supposedily) ready to play position fit. You could tell he was a bust right away. This years busts will take more time to be clear.

I expect that the busts in the lottery this year will be projects who never develop - some subset of Jordon, McGee, Randolf, Greene, etc. There's going to be 5-7 players taken in the lottery that are a long way from contributing in the NBA, some will get there, some won't.


Your second question involves a lot of specualtion, but I'm sure Dorsey doens't go in the lottery.

javel mcgee-booke it!

Gordon is too gifted of a scorer to be a huge bust like Araujo. People piled onto him at the end of the season, but he had a wrist injury and that situation at Indiana was extremely difficult. He will be just fine, believe me. My answer to this: Jordan, McGee, or Greene.

And no way anyone in the lottery (probably not even in the first round) picks Dorsey. None.

A. Westbrook

B. Chris Douglas-Roberts

A) Brook Lopez
B) Robin Lopez

1. DeAndre Jordan
2. Chase Budinger
3. Anthony Randolph

GJense4181 wrote:A) Brook Lopez
B) Robin Lopez

Brook Lopez is the safest pick in this draft. A 7 footer who will put up 14 and 7 the minute he steps into the NBA.

^Can I quote you on that

Roy Hibbert will be the answer to both. You really think a 7'2" monster with some skills is going to fall to the late 1st round like most mock drafts seem to think? Not a chance. He'll be drafted in the lottery (or at least by the mid-1st) and will struggle with the pace of the NBA.

McGee, Donte Greene, Robin Lopez

Nicolas Batum, if someone makes the mistake and wastes a lottery pick on him.

GJense4181 wrote:^Can I quote you on that

Absolutely. In the last 2 drafts, the guys I said that about were Brandon Roy and Al Thornton. Heres to 3 in a row.

Jordan definitely has the biggest bust factor considering where he's been slotted to go in some of the mocks (top 5-8). But then again he also has one of the higher upsides of the potential lottery picks. Westbrook would be another guy (don't buy that he's an NBA PG nor do his current skill sets translate into a top notch SG IMHO) who is probably more a 6th or 7th man in the NBA (and probably not what a team in the 5-8 range would be looking for).

My money is on Gallinari.

Cammo101 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Absolutely. In the last 2 drafts, the guys I said that about were Brandon Roy and Al Thornton. Heres to 3 in a row.

You said Al Thornton was the safest pick in the 2007 draft? For what slot? 14th?

With Brook Lopez we're talking about a guy that could be a top 3 selection. =high bust factor.

Donte Greene

I'm pretty baffled at the Jerryd Bayless top 5 talk, I'll go with him

Kevin Love.

OJ Mayonaisse if he goes in the top 5. His shot selection is reminiscent of JR Smith, who's extremely talented but will never be a good starter b/c of his chucking, and only works out well with free flowing offenses like Denver b/c his shot selection doesn't stand out too badly with the rest of his teammates. But Mayo's not even as good a shooter as Smith anyways, and in his rookie year, if he goes to a team that allows him to be the star, he might put up historically bad shooting percentages and not bring much else to the table to boot.