As a Prospect: Rose vs. Jay Williams?

[magicfan4life05]

obviously this is pre-injury jay will, their games remind me of each other a lot, so 2 questions


1. are their games similar/ who is better??


2. as a prospect, who would you take first?

[tsherkin]

Rose is considerably larger and comparably athletic; I don't think there's any question that he's the superior prospect.

[nitetrain8603]

I thought about this yesterday and I do agree, both seem to have the same type game. If all goes well, Rose should end up being better than what Jason Williams' ceiling was simply because he is bigger. I don't know if he's more athletic than Jason. I think they're pretty much the same, but Rose is able to stand more contact and still get a shot or pass off.

[john2jer]

I thought about this yesterday and I do agree, both seem to have the same type game. If all goes well, Rose should end up being better than what Jason Williams' ceiling was simply because he is bigger. I don't know if he's more athletic than Jason. I think they're pretty much the same, but Rose is able to stand more contact and still get a shot or pass off.

So Rose should be able to handle a motorcycle crash better?

[nitetrain8603]

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So Rose should be able to handle a motorcycle crash better?

Hopefully he's not that dumb.

[bender235]

Jerryd Bayless is the Jay Williams clone. Rose is better than Bayless, and better than Williams.

[SendEm]

Jay Williams was a much better passer and outside shooter than Rose. Jay Williams had Baron Davis like potential. Rose is not really much of a PG as he is an athletic guard that can penetrate who is a VERY willing passer, although not a very talented passer. Derrick Rose is definitely one of the most overhyped PG prospects that I have ever seen. It's obvious that with the current success of the PG in the NBA that everyone wants the next Nash, Paul, or D. Will. Rose will not be that sort of PG. But Rose is definitely a VERY good basketball player, just not a pure PG with that special floor general excellent passing ability that only the Kidd's, Paul's, Stockton's of the world have.

[jumanji]

Jay Williams was a much better passer and outside shooter than Rose. Jay Williams had Baron Davis like potential. Rose is not really much of a PG as he is an athletic guard that can penetrate who is a VERY willing passer, although not a very talented passer. Derrick Rose is definitely one of the most overhyped PG prospects that I have ever seen. It's obvious that with the current success of the PG in the NBA that everyone wants the next Nash, Paul, or D. Will. Rose will not be that sort of PG. But Rose is definitely a VERY good basketball player, just not a pure PG with that special floor general excellent passing ability that only the Kidd's, Paul's, Stockton's of the world have.

You arent going to get too many people to agree with that but i do. To me Rose is sort of the Marbury/Francis type of pg seemingly without the BS.

[john2jer]

The comparison I saw, and agree with greatly is Deron Williams for Derrick Rose. Deron wasn't considered an elite point guard prospect coming out of college. He had a ton of potential, but no one was saying he'd be the next Baron Davis, Mark Jackson, or Tim Hardaway. Now he's one of the top 5 point guards in the league.

Rose is strong, can penetrate, is a very willing passer, and can play defense. I don't think his shot is as good as Deron's but with work it will be.

Bayless compares more to Marbury/Francis than Rose does.

[tsherkin]

Jay Williams was a much better passer and outside shooter than Rose.

Both of those are false; Williams was a pretty weak outside shooter when he was drafted, worse than Rose. He was worse at the foul line, better from 3 and worse in the mid-range.

He was not a significantly better passer, he played in a system that left the ball in his hands in a more conventional offense more frequently. Calipari's offense was not designed for high-volume assist production AND Williams played 3-5 more minutes per game in each season of his time at Duke than did Rose at Memphis. So that's mostly bunk reasoning based on falsehoods.

Jay Williams had Baron Davis like potential.

Never; no one would compare the comparatively skinny frame of Jay Williams to Baron, let alone Baron's post-up game to Jay's slashing, penetrator game.

[jman3134]

Jay Williams was a much better passer and outside shooter than Rose. Jay Williams had Baron Davis like potential. Rose is not really much of a PG as he is an athletic guard that can penetrate who is a VERY willing passer, although not a very talented passer. Derrick Rose is definitely one of the most overhyped PG prospects that I have ever seen. It's obvious that with the current success of the PG in the NBA that everyone wants the next Nash, Paul, or D. Will. Rose will not be that sort of PG. But Rose is definitely a VERY good basketball player, just not a pure PG with that special floor general excellent passing ability that only the Kidd's, Paul's, Stockton's of the world have.

I generally agree that Williams was a far better passer than Rose. And yes, you are also right on about the shooting ability- Jay Williams had a very fluid stroke. He does not possess the same presence on the floor as Jay did during his years at Duke. Sure, Williams was more refined coming out of college because he had two years on Rose.

Whether or not Jay could have reached Rose's potential is questionable at best. I agree that Rose has the physical presence to really dominate even in an NBA setting. His slashing ability is comparable to D Wade imo. However, he tends to try to be overly flashy on his moves attacking the basket.

The thing about Jay Williams is simply that he was blazingly fast. The guy had a beautiful stroke- albeit inconsistent at times- but he refined it in the NBA even after his injury. I do believe that Rose has a higher ceiling, but simply that Jay was the better prospect coming out. He had all the college experience and was a true presence on the floor. Rose was strong at the right time- late in the season during the NCAA tournament- but people forget how topsy tervy he was during the regular season. Sure, there is an adjustment period. But, Jay was simply a force all year long- head and shoulders above his competition.

[tsherkin]

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I generally agree that Williams was a far better passer than Rose.

Meh, I still disagree. He had a favorable system and two extra years of college career.

And yes, you are also right on about the shooting ability- Jay Williams had a very fluid stroke. He does not possess the same presence on the floor as Jay did during his years at Duke. Sure, Williams was more refined coming out of college because he had two years on Rose.

...

The guy had a beautiful stroke- albeit inconsistent at times- but he refined it in the NBA even after his injury.

Actually, he didn't; Jay Williams shot terribly in the NBA. Absolutely terribly. Didn't hit 40% from the field and shot under 33% from downtown, 64% from the line...

He purpotedly refined his shot after his accident while rehabbing but hasn't made it back to the league yet and probably never will. He looked really good in workouts against Marcus Williams...

But that was Marcus Williams, and since his athleticism was gone, he didn't really manage to impress anyone enough to hold a roster spot long enough to get into the regular season again.

Remember, this is a guy that the Austin Toros cut two years ago because he was injured... again. He's since stopped trying to come back to the league.

My point is this: without his athleticism, Williams didn't have a lot of anything to contribute. While Jay had a superior 20- to 22-foot jumper, his passing, supposedly superior, is not. It was buoyed by Coach K's system and was was a lot more penetrate-and-pitch passing than particularly visionary stuff. He was a very good passer, but not enough to say that he was a lot better than Rose. People always seem to neglect basic context when working in this comparison.

Rose was strong at the right time- late in the season during the NCAA tournament- but people forget how topsy tervy he was during the regular season. Sure, there is an adjustment period. But, Jay was simply a force all year long- head and shoulders above his competition.

And Jay Williams as a freshman at Duke was a lot better? As an 18 year-old for the Blue Devils, he was all over the map.

Anyway, I think this last passage highlights it; yeah, he was topsy-turvy as a 19 year-old freshman in the regular season but as the pressure packed on, he got better until he was pretty much at his best through the tournament, when it counted.

[jman3134]

Actually, he didn't; Jay Williams shot terribly in the NBA. Absolutely terribly. Didn't hit 40% from the field and shot under 33% from downtown, 64% from the line...

He purpotedly refined his shot after his accident while rehabbing but hasn't made it back to the league yet and probably never will. He looked really good in workouts against Marcus Williams...

But that was Marcus Williams, and since his athleticism was gone, he didn't really manage to impress anyone enough to hold a roster spot long enough to get into the regular season again.

Remember, this is a guy that the Austin Toros cut two years ago because he was injured... again. He's since stopped trying to come back to the league.

The latter passage is what I was referring to. He supposedly refined his shot when his athleticism was lost due to the accident. I wasn't referring to his years in the league prior to his injury. Still, he was a starting caliber player because of his ability to involve his teammates and the threat that he posed off the dribble.

My point is this: without his athleticism, Williams didn't have a lot of anything to contribute. While Jay had a superior 20- to 22-foot jumper, his passing, supposedly superior, is not. It was buoyed by Coach K's system and was was a lot more penetrate-and-pitch passing than particularly visionary stuff. He was a very good passer, but not enough to say that he was a lot better than Rose. People always seem to neglect basic context when working in this comparison.

Without Rose's athleticism, he has very little to contribute as well. If there was no threat of him slashing to the hoop, he is equally, if not more inconsistent from the perimeter.

I disagree completely with the system player remarks. It is not inherent playing in Coach K's system that your passing is going to be superior- instead, Coach K's system molds you into a better passer. That's how I would put it. Jay Williams, by his junior year, was the most valuable piece for his Duke squad. And sure, you could argue that the centerpiece of the Duke system is the point guard. But, you cannot say that this inherently marks up his numbers. The vision needs to be there in the first place. With Rose, he has numerous weapons all over the court, but was never a consistent passer throughout the season. And, no system is more conducive to an NBA environment that Calipari's. Rose had a lot of liberties with the ball that Jay Williams never had. This is clear when you watch Rose during the regular season hoisting up shots from God knows where, and sometimes killing chemistry. Jay was timid in his earlier seasons because of the magnitude that his position entailed. Because he had this experience in a point guard oriented system, he was able to bring something similar to the table for his NBA squad.

Rose is not nearly as refined and still has some very bad habits. He does not play with the same basketball intelligence that Jay Williams brought to the table. The threat that he posed as a slasher (through his blazing quickness) forced defenders to double team him at times. And, this allowed him to make the extra pass. Sure, Rose is bigger and more powerful. But, I do not believe that he is as explosive. Simply because he seemingly fit the NBA mold better than Williams, does not make him the better prospect imo. This disregards the intangibles that made Jay truly outstanding. His floor general mentality carries with it much to be envied. The majority of the year, Rose was prone to making freshman mistakes and did not truly carry Memphis until the tournament. I wouldn't say that he demonstrated the same vision and basketball IQ that Jay Williams had coming into the draft. It's just unfair to compare them as prospects because of the two year differential. But, Jay definitely brought more to the table imo.

[tsherkin]

I opine that Jay Williams was NOT a starting caliber NBA player at any point during his limited career. He might have developed into one but he was no different than Rose in that he had decision-making troubles, a relatively inconsistent jumper and relied entirely too much on his athleticism.

Without Rose's athleticism, he has very little to contribute as well. If there was no threat of him slashing to the hoop, he is equally, if not more inconsistent from the perimeter.

I agree completely, I'm just saying that ITO being a prospect, he's bigger and similarly athletic and therefore has greater value as a prospect.

I disagree completely with the system player remarks. It is not inherent playing in Coach K's system that your passing is going to be superior- instead, Coach K's system molds you into a better passer. That's how I would put it.

I don't disagree. Mind that Jay was pressured to be a passer at that level in Coach K's system and Rose was not in his single season with Memphis; Calipari's system did not emphasize the value of his point guard as a distributor but rather as an initial penetrator. The cyclical penetrate-and-pitch system was decidedly and intentionally against convention, which means that evaluating Rose's passing next to a player from a conventional system is nebulous at best because he's explicitly not in the same kind of passing scenarios and is being asked to score or at least penetrate as his primary value action.

Jay Williams, by his junior year,

Yeah but he was also older than Rose and had two more years of college experience and STILL wasn't significantly better in any regard.

But, you cannot say that this inherently marks up his numbers.

Not compared to most of his contemporaries, no, but most certainly compared to Calipari's system, which explicitly takes the ball out of Rose's hands and puts it into CDR's or whomever else after the initial penetration.

Inarguably, actually; Calipari has made extensive description of his system and that is invariably the conclusion drawn based on the play diagrams, video and his own commentary.

With Rose, he has numerous weapons all over the court, but was never a consistent passer throughout the season. And, no system is more conducive to an NBA environment that Calipari's. Rose had a lot of liberties with the ball that Jay Williams never had. This is clear when you watch Rose during the regular season hoisting up shots from God knows where, and sometimes killing chemistry.

I'm sorry, did you mean following Calipari's instructions and playing within the scope of the offense? Because you make it sound like Rose wasn't learning a totally anti-conventional offense for the first chunk of the season in his freshman year.

But, I do not believe that he is as explosive.

I disagree, because his speed and explosive first step were of primary importance to his penetration, which was the center of his value to Memphis.

His floor general mentality carries with it much to be envied. The majority of the year, Rose was prone to making freshman mistakes and did not truly carry Memphis until the tournament.

Right, but when it counted, he was carrying them, which is all that matters. It took him what, 30 games or so to learn a totally new offense, adjust to a new level of competition and start playing at a level that eventually took his team to the national championship game. You act like that's a weakness; it is, in fact, a strength that pretty handily highlights his adaptability.

[Ruzious]

Jay Williams was overrated as a prospect. He was a shorter very poor man's Baron Davis. Williams' athleticism was overrated. While he had good quickness and speed, he was no Rose in either category - while being probably 3 inches shorter.

[jman3134]

I opine that Jay Williams was NOT a starting caliber NBA player at any point during his limited career. He might have developed into one but he was no different than Rose in that he had decision-making troubles, a relatively inconsistent jumper and relied entirely too much on his athleticism.

I disagree. Maybe from a numbers standpoint, but from what I watched of him, he was able to drive and kick and was a crucial part of that Bulls offense. He was able to penetrate and kick to his teammates. Sure, his numbers do not really express this, but I would say that is more due to their inability to finish than anything. He relied on his athleticism because he was a great athlete even at the NBA level. I would argue that both are similar in that respect. I just disagree on the decision making portion. I think it has more to do with his presence on a bottom feeder team.

I agree completely, I'm just saying that ITO being a prospect, he's bigger and similarly athletic and therefore has greater value as a prospect.

This is the traditional method of evaluation, but I would deviate a bit simply because I think Jay separates himself by his intangibles. The floor general mentality really could help any team that he played for. I don't think that Rose possesses this same feel for the game. I see him as a more Wade-esque slasher who simply employs his physicality to dominate his opponents. I view Jay as the more skilled prospect.

I don't disagree. Mind that Jay was pressured to be a passer at that level in Coach K's system and Rose was not in his single season with Memphis; Calipari's system did not emphasize the value of his point guard as a distributor but rather as an initial penetrator. The cyclical penetrate-and-pitch system was decidedly and intentionally against convention, which means that evaluating Rose's passing next to a player from a conventional system is nebulous at best because he's explicitly not in the same kind of passing scenarios and is being asked to score or at least penetrate as his primary value action.

But, why is that? I think Calipari, more than most, adapts his system to the talents of his personnel. So, if he utilized Rose as an initial penetrator, I feel that this is because of Rose's talent in that respect. The year before, I do not think that Andre Allen would simply drive and kick all game long. He was more of a spot up shooter. As I recall, he worked the ball around the perimeter a bit more.

It's against convention because it replicates the NBA system that is in place. This is the selling point to recruits imo. Sure, he's not in the same kind of scenario, but I think that Calipari molds his system to his player's strengths. The guy is a former NBA coach, and I think he brings that sort of swagger to the college bench.

I'm sorry, did you mean following Calipari's instructions and playing within the scope of the offense? Because you make it sound like Rose wasn't learning a totally anti-conventional offense for the first chunk of the season in his freshman year.

He was learning an offense that catered to his and CDR's strengths. So, I wouldn't say that his adjusting to that system was the kicker; more likely, imo, was his adjustment to the competition and the fact that he was met with a defense at the rim after he got past his initial man. I don't think he really experienced that in high school. This is why he often threw up wild shots. He could get away with this in high school because he was not met with the same opposition. Throughout the course of the season, he adjusted to the aforementioned level of competition, and his explosiveness thrived.

I disagree, because his speed and explosive first step were of primary importance to his penetration, which was the center of his value to Memphis.

His first step may have been at the level of Jay Williams's. But, his overall speed was not comparatively as great imo. I'm not saying that it was negligible.

Right, but when it counted, he was carrying them, which is all that matters. It took him what, 30 games or so to learn a totally new offense, adjust to a new level of competition and start playing at a level that eventually took his team to the national championship game. You act like that's a weakness; it is, in fact, a strength that pretty handily highlights his adaptability.

You have to get to the playoffs first though. I do not feel that his level of play in the regular season was even close to that of Jay Williams. Consistency should be valued when gauging a prospect imo.

[jman3134]

Jay Williams was overrated as a prospect. He was a shorter very poor man's Baron Davis. Williams' athleticism was overrated. While he had good quickness and speed, he was no Rose in either category - while being probably 3 inches shorter.

I also don't see the Baron Davis comparison. But, I would argue that he did not have enough time in the league to really hit his full potential. We have yet to see how Rose will fare.

[DayofMourning]

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I also don't see the Baron Davis comparison. But, I would argue that he did not have enough time in the league to really hit his full potential. We have yet to see how Rose will fare.

People see points and assists and think one player is another. That's usually where the comparisons end.

On another note, Williams was an above average shooter in college. He made shots consistently against whoever he played against and they weren't just 20 footers. He could hit from anywhere.

He was also very athletic. Rose has him on height, but he isn't more athletic than Jason. The fresh image of Rose on people's minds has clouded their memory of how good "Jay" really was.

In Chicago he was in a bad situation. They had a terrible, terrible set of personalities for him to work with. I remember reading an article stating how big a transition he underwent going from Duke to Chicago. It read that at one point while trying to help Eddie Curry with his game, Curry replied "F*** you!". Those Bulls deteriorated quickly and only minutely because of Jay. Saying that he wasn't a starting caliber player because of his Chicago experience is extremely unfair.

[Blame Rasho]

I opine that Jay Williams was NOT a starting caliber NBA player at any point during his limited career.

I agree wholeheartly... this guy after his jr year wasn't even as good as a 19 year old Tony Parker.

[AnSweR07]

I opine that Jay Williams was NOT a starting caliber NBA player at any point during his limited career.

I agree wholeheartly... this guy after his jr year wasn't even as good as a 19 year old Tony Parker.