Malinhion's Mock Draft Pt.1 w/ Extensive Commentary

[Malinhion]

1. CHICAGO BULLS - MICHAEL BEASLEY
The smart money has Rose going to Chicago, since whispers indicate that the Chicago native is the Bulls' first target. But the smart money isn't so smart, is it? Think about this another way. Chicago has spend the past two drafts trying to take a big man who will score in the paint. It's the reason they dumped Tyson Chandler in the first place. They ultimately screwed this plan up by drafting and then trading Aldridge, who could have filled that role. They thought Ty Thomas was going to contribute more in line with their style. While, yes, he does get up and down the court, he's more of an Al Harrington PF than a Pau Gasol PF (the other chance the Bulls balked at). Then, last year, they took Joakim Noah. The problem is, he's a defensive player, not an offensive one. He can work well from the high post, but that role is as a facilitator. And you're taking the guy out of the high-percentage painted area when you use him in the high post a la a Brad Miller or Boris Diaw. Now Beasley falls in their lap. He's a perfect compliment to Noah, who is big, long, athletic, defensive, and a good passer. Beasley is a strong but undersized rebounder who can score at will. He is the perfect piece for their team.

Why draft Rose? He's not a "big guard" as we expected, so there are foreseeable defensive issues putting him alongside sharpshooter Ben Gordon. You have Hinrich locked up to a long-term deal. He's getting paid about what he's worth, and since its on a declining scale they Bulls have already fronted the bigger years of the contract. Drafting Rose means that Hinrich gets packaged with some other players in an attempt to get the post scoring they neglected to draft.You're going to have to package him with some of that frontcourt youth to get an impact player, and that's going to leave you with a gap in the frontcourt. The Bulls are already so heavy on guards that they won't be signing some key rotation players from the past few seasons (Duhon). Why pass on Beasley when your best frontcourt scoring options are Aaron Gray, Tyrus Thomas, Jo Noah, or Drew Gooden?

2. MIAMI HEAT - DERRICK ROSE
Honestly, who knows what Miami wants? It doesn't even matter. Everything coming out of south Florida is a smokescreen, as usual with a Riley franchise. They will take whichever of the top two that Chicago passes on. This isn't a situation like last year where we have a clear #1, and then a few rebels saying Durant would go first for posterity's sake. We have two top players that can go in either order. I think the Heat will be content with leaving all the pressure on the Bulls and taking none of the guilt for how each player pans out.

OJ Mayo has been working out with Dwyane Wade and some other Olympic hopefuls in Chicago. While both being creators, they do seem like a good match (a jumpshooter and a slasher), but Spoelstra would have to put in some Princeton sets to get both of these guys the ball. If the Heat are low on Beasley, they will have to draft him and then trade his rights after the pick. I don't see them moving lower than Minnesota, since the Wolves are probably happy with either Mayo or Beasley. And the benefit of moving down might not be worth all that much if the Heat really are chasing Juice so hard. Then again, McHale gladly took on Antoine Walker from the Heat less than a year ago, so there's no telling what kind of deal Riles might pull off.

3. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - OJ MAYO
Minny most likely has these three at the top of their draft board, and will gladly take whichever falls to them. I don't think Mayo's talents were really showcased at USC. I view him as a low-risk, high-reward type of prospect. He could move into Minnesota at the 2, and shift Foye to the 1. I think Beasley and Jefferson have redundant skillsets, so even if he's on the block the Wolves may be better off with OJ. While Mayo might not be as athletic and quick as hoped, he is a very fluid player with a polished jumpshooter's skillset. Brook Lopez is rightfully falling down mocks, and while I do think his defensive prowess and size would be a good fit next to Jefferson, I think Mayo's upside (BPA) clearly outweighs Lopez' good fit (draft for position).

4. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS - JERRYD BAYLESS
The consensus is that the Sonics are going to go with Jerryd Bayless here. While I can't argue with taking such a complete point guard with an Arizona pedigree, I don't think picking up a score-first point to pair with Durant is such a good idea. However, anything to take the attention off of Kevin is probably good for the Sonics at this point. Bayless is a slasher and drew a lot of fouls last year, but he's also got NBA range on his jumper. However, I am a little worried about him being stuck between positions while going into an already-embattled point guard rotation of Watson and Ridnour. I think the Sonics have reached too much for project big men at the top of the draft in the past. They will go with a more sure thing in Bayless. I think they package one or two of their 2nd round picks with #24 to move up further in the 1st round and grab a big man like Koufos or Hibbert. There is a lot of big man talent around the end of the first round, including DeVon Hardin (Cal), Jason Thompson (Rider), Alexis Ajinca (France), Robin Lopez (Stanford), Marresse Speights (Florida), JaVale McGee (Nevada). Good scouting will get you a serviceable big man in the middle of the 2008 draft.

5. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - KEVIN LOVE
The Grizzlies will be looking to fill the void left by Pau Gasol. Some might consider this a reach, but Love's workouts have been going very well. He's a great piece for a winning franchise, but doubts as to whether he's a franchise player push him down the boards. He's a hard worker and his game is polished. He's already got range on his J and his outlet passes make me weak in the knees. Love is the complete package, and if the Grizzlies want to plug a lot of frontcourt holes at once, he's their guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see them package this pick with an arsenal of point guards in order to try and grab more picks, expiring contracts, or future 1sts.

6. NEW YORK KNICKS - DANILO GALLINARI
It's not often that you hear a european prospect is low-risk, but that's what makes the 19-year-old such a solid pick. The Italian sensation will make a good fit for whatever system D'Antoni installs in New York. I think Danilo has a strong possibility of sliding past this pick if Mayo drops to the Knicks. But I think they would be best served taking a low-risk player like Gallinari to build the new franchise around. The pieces that D'Antoni will conceivably hold on to are at the guard spots and power forward. Danilo could make the franchise player that this new regime will be built around. At very worst he will be a solid contributor for D'Antoni. I can't look past the coach's relationship with Gallinari's father, or Isiah's trips to Europe.

7. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - ERIC GORDON
Maggette will be opting out any day now, and the Clippers might as well get better production at a lower cost. I think a lot of Gordon's troubles have been overplayed. He made some boneheaded plays, but he was a freshman. He didn't seem to have focus in march, but his team was ravaged by the controversy of NCAA violations and losing a coach. He played through an injury most of the season, which probably hurt his numbers. While he doesn't have the *ideal* size to be a shooting guard, I think this aspect is overplayed. He won't be moved to point because he doesn't have the skillset, but Gordon will probably be a versatile wing player for the Clippers. The only places that the Clippers have been hurting recently are on the wings, and its keeping them out of the playoffs. Pair a potential star like Gordon with Brand, and you're in business. That is, if the Clippers even hang on to Brand...

8. MILWAUKEE BUCKS - BROOK LOPEZ
This solidifies their frontcourt. We're not sure if Yi will be around next season, and his production this year left a lot to be desired. He could probably thrive alongside a strong defensive presence like Brook Lopez. The same could be said for passing big man Andrew Bogut, whose numbers went up after the all-star break last year with an increase in aggression. While this may leave them a bit crowded, I think Lopez is a low-risk prospect that will leave them with a solid group of contributors. There should be a lot of movement in Milwaukee this offseason so don't be surprised to see this pick go elsewhere if the Bucks decide they are satisfied with the frontcourt situation.

9. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS - ANTHONY RANDOLPH
It's worth it for the 'Cats to chase a high-risk, high-reward prospect here. J-Rich had decent production but he wasn't really the first option that they had hoped for. If Randolph can fill out and polish his game, he has the potential to lead this franchise. As they are currently constructed, this team is a defensive squad that should have the talent to make the playoffs. Pairing Randolph's blocking prowess with Okafor's defense should keep a lot of guards out of the lane. And taking some of the pressure off of Okafor should hopefully alleviate his injury issues. The problem is, like many of this year's top picks, Randolph is too young to be producing until he's off his rookie scale contract. If he pans out, Charlotte will have two bigs clogging the middle and decent scoring options on most parts of the floor.

10. NEW JERSEY NETS - DEANDRE JORDAN
Some experts have DeAndre Jordan going here. I don't like it for the Nets, who took a high-risk, high-reward player in Sean Williams just last season. I think Williams will pan out if Lawrence Frank can ever learn to give decent minutes to young players on a rebuilding team. Unfortunately, he's already killed the career of Nenad Krstic in this fashion, so the Nets are still looking at some frontcourt holes. Jordan's physical attributes are stunning, but his actual production left a lot to be desired. However, the Nets seem to be set in the backcourt, with the newly acquired Harris, the star-powered Vince Carter, and the consistent contributions of Richard Jefferson. I think they definitely hang onto RJ and Harris, but if they're looking to move Carter to improve the Brooklyn team, they may want to take a swingman here and start grooming him as a successor. The problem is, most of the top-flight guys are gone by this point. I think the Nets will trade this pick. They will either move up to grab Love (a more sure thing) or Gordon (similar to Carter) if either takes a little slide. Alternatively, I could see them moving down for a more sure thing at power forward, like Darrell Arthur. There aren't many shooting guards behind Mayo and Gordon worth taking a look at for the Nets, since too many of them fit the swingman mold of Richard Jefferson. I think the Nets trade this pick to whichever team is interested on taking a flyer on a project big man. The Sixers and Kings look like the best teams to target. If it gets to the Nets pick without any action, I think they take DeAndre and try to capitalize on his value via trade, rather than reaching for a roleplayer.

11. INDIANA PACERS - DJ AUGUSTIN
You can pretty much pencil this one in now. Larry Bird is sick of Jamal Tinsley's constant injury concerns and social issues. The team needs a revamp. The best place to start is to realize that Dunleavy is leading your offense, and take a point guard. Augustin is the second pure point guard on the board. I think the Pacers overlook his smallishness because of the recent successes of 6'0" Chris Paul. Augustin might not have top-flight potential but what the Pacers need right now is consistency. And DJ brings that in every aspect of the game. His skills at the 1 are already groomed for the NBA with a variety of hesitation moves, solid dribbling with both hands, and a knack for sharing the ball. His defense will be limited but maybe the Pacers can deal JO for someone who will contribute to perimeter D.

12. SACRAMENTO KINGS - JOE ALEXANDER
I don't think the Kings have the intent of resigning Ron Artest after this season, so now would be a smart time to start grooming someone for that position. Alexander is a good person to bring in, in this capacity. He will be able to contribute while still on his rookie deal, since he's 21 and he already has the size to bang with the big boys. He's a workout maniac, and scouts have been praising his abilities as a result. I think 12 is a reasonable spot for him to go off the board, though I wouldn't want to take him much higher. He's a solid scorer that will be able to take some weight off the aging knees of playmaker Brad Miller, and he won't have to face so much attention that will be directed towards Kevin Martin.

13. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - RUSSELL WESTBROOK
The Blazers will be a very happy camp if they can snag Westbrook. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them move up past the Kings to do so. Expect it to be an active draft for Pritchard and company, as usual. Since the Blazers already have a bevy of offensive options, they would be wise to take Westbrook and groom him as a defensive point. If he can play lockdown defense, the Blazer's defensive prowess at the two most important positions should push them into playoff contention sooner rather than later.

14. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - MARREESE SPEIGHTS
I think this is where the big guys start to come off the board. I think the Warriors will look into a big man, since they're not impressed with the progress of project Brandon Wright. For this reason, I think they shy away from OSU alum Kosta Koufos. That is, unless these freakish measurements I saw out of Europe were actually legit (I doubt it). Speights has the size to come in and make an impact playing Nellieball, where he would normally struggle on other teams because of his underdeveloped post game. I expected Speights to stay in school another year, but I think the allure of a Florida big man pedigree has him climbing up the boards as more of a sure thing than centers like McGee and Ajinca. He is a bit of a reach at 14, but not unreasonable. I think the Warriors are leaning more towards PF than C these days because Beans has been such a great, consistent defensive player for them. Wright also has the size to play C if he pans out, so a lot of those other bigs will go later in the first.

15. PHOENIX SUNS - BRANDON RUSH
The Suns are on record saying they want someone who can contribute right away. There have been murmurs about Koufos, who is a great fit for their system. However, I question their ability to draft a big man when they're already paying Amare ($15m), Shaq ($20m), and Diaw ($9m) next season. That's three of their four biggest contracts. The only other guy they're paying is Nash. There are too many solid SG/SF prospects available at this point to start seeking out redundancy. Hill is on his last legs (and might not renew his PO), and Barbosa and Bell are better suited for manning the guard spots. What the Suns need is a defensive small forward who can fill part of the gap left by Shawn Marion. Rush has everything they want. Size, athletecism, an outside shot, and defense. He plays off the ball, which is good because Amare will be the new #1 option, Shaq will always demand his touches, and Nash will be the dominant playmaker. The holes in Rush's game will be covered by the Phoenix offense, because of the personnel, not the system. He has the experience to be the impact player they desire from a rookie. I really can't see the Suns going elsewhere. Budinger also plays well off the ball but he's an atrocious defender. I see Kerr being skeptical of a euro's defense like Batum, though I hear it is pretty solid.

16. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - JAVALE MCGEE
This team is pretty well constructed. They have a good facilitating PG in Miller (expiring soon). Iguodala is their franchise wing guy. Dalembert shockingly actually showed some life this season, averaging 10-10-2.5, and I must say, I never saw that coming. Reggie Evans was also a decent rebounding option for them, though clearly not a franchise big man. They have decent talent at the 2-3-4, including Carney, Young, and Smith. I think the best idea for the 76ers would be to just take BPA, or a flier on one of these big guys until they can see what they have panning out.

Non-lotto picks to come tomorrow. Comments, critiques, etc. all welcome!

[GswStorm3]

Great pick for GS

[lurkingobeiscity]

I tend to agree on Jordan (not a guy for the Nets) and the Nets position. I see them moving the pick to a team that wants Augustin, whether that is in a trade up, down or out of the draft.

[LUKE23]

Doubtful that the Bucks take Lopez. He probably will not be BPA where they pick and they already have Bogut/Yi/Villanueva as young guys in the frontcourt.

[RIPskaterdude]

The Kings have no need for another SF with Artest/Salmons/Garcia already on the team. Why would we pick another SF when we have NO PG on our team and our PF position is a mess with two players who didn't even play last year?

[DayofMourning]

Excellent analysis.

[pillwenney]

The Kings have no need for another SF with Artest/Salmons/Garcia already on the team. Why would we pick another SF when we have NO PG on our team and our PF position is a mess with two players who didn't even play last year?

Yup. Even if Artest is gone at some point, we're more than happy with Salmons/Cisco at the position. If Petrie thinks Alexander is clearly the BPA, we'll take him, but definitely not to fit our needs.

Ultimately, with Westbrook, Arthur and even Speights still on the board, I'd rather go in another direction.

[AnSweR07]

OJ Mayo is lil overrated.. but his athleticsim is underrated, hes more athletic than Wade IMO.

[Malinhion]

Yeah, I don't like where the Kings are drafting for their needs. I really think they will move up.

Thanks for the heads up regardless.