RealGM

Aka, close to being the best prospect in this draft, depending on what happens with Rubio?

I project Griffin as landing in the Amare/Bosh/Boozer/Shareef mold... something like 22/11/3 or 20/11/3 with sub-par defense. I see Harden reaching a Joe Johnson-like mix of scoring and playmaking, say 19/5/5 or 18/5/5. I won't get into dissecting the players as its been done ad nauseum, but those both look like likely scenarios for me for those guys and I haven't heard much disagreement on that stance.

Well I think Joe is at worst equal to Amare/Boozer... So why is Griffin considered on a different tier as a prospect? Is it "upside"? In terms of surpassing those levels, I can see Harden reaching Pierce and Roy before I can buy Griffin's Karl Malone comparisons or 24/12 with good d. Griffin does have superior athleticism, but his undersized measurements and Harden's sneaky bball IQ and fundamental Pierce/Roy like game balances that out a bit for me. At most I see this as a slight edge to Griffin

Griffin is seen as more of a lock to reach his 20/11 than Harden is 19/5/5, though I'm not sure about that. Not until Griffin's jumper shows up and he proves his game translates against stronger, unmoveable opponents. Harden's floor is more of a sure thing to at least be "good" to me, I'd be bewildered if he's not a starter at least. Again I could see people arguing both ways here but to me they're level

Big over small doesn't matter when the big plays face-up and is bad at d, though this is probably the biggest reason Griffin currently has the higher stock

I don't know if I'd pick Harden over Griffin, but I think the gap is at the least, a LOT smaller than the media has played it as. But I'd definitely like to hear from the Griffin is the #1 by far boosters on this and what I've missed comparing the two, I know I'm not the biggest supporter of his star potential so maybe this is just me being skeptical

You also have to factor in how he did in the tournament [or what he didn't do]. He struggled against the competition and was basically 'shutdown' against "better" competition.

he is no where close to Griffin as a prospect... the question is laughable imo

Dr Mufasa wrote:
Well I think Joe is at worst equal to Amare/Boozer...

Well, that's your problem right there. Amare and Boozer are better than Johnson. Johnson's been flat out dissapointing since his 06-07 season.

Best case scenarios for each prospect:

Griffin - 25 PPG, 13 RPG, 3 APG caliber player

Harden - 17 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG caliber player

I think Griffin can become the top PF in the league in his prime, while Harden will be a great second option player in his prime. Just me though.

I think highly enough of Harden to think that if they moved OJ Mayo to the point Harden would fit great between Mayo and Gay as an all around player that could help both be better.

But I predict this draft (after Griffin) is going to be about gambling on finding that high risk/high reward player, which Harden isn't. Like a Jason Thompson(even though they play different positions) Harden isn't the sexy athlete that a Derozan or Evans may be. Or the risk on a potential spectacular type that a Rubio or Jennings, or Holiday is.

Harden is simply a solid basketball player that should be able to help any team right from the start, but in less highlight reel fashion.

How the heck do you guys see him getting those kinds of rebound numbers? Boggles my mind. I see maybe 8.5-9. NOT 12-13.

How many 6'9 guys with average length do you see in the league getting 12 boards a night?

I'm gonna guess in their 4th years

Griffin
21ppg
8.5 rpg
2.5 ast

Harden
14 ppg
5 rpg
4 apg

Kinda like Antoine Jamison and a Ricky Davis (with a brain). I realize that's not a tremendous amount of talent for maybe the #1 and #2 picks, but, I don't think this draft is gonna give much more than that.

lol wut?
Length and height dont even have much to do with rebounding. Rebounding is a combination of knack, motor, athleticism, and some length. Look at chuck hayes and reggie evans two of the best rebounders in the league are undersized. Look at david lee, carlos boozer, zach randolph, paul millsap. All undersized but still good rebounders. I dont see 12rpg being out of reach for griffin. Look at one of the best rebounders in NBA history in Dennis Rodman, he was only 6'7.

I'm surprised at some of these answers. Harden is closer to Griffin than many are giving him credit for. I have Harden #2 on my big board and he is closer to Griffin than the #3 player is to Harden. Harden has the potential to be a 21/6/6 in my opinion due to his skills combined with that sneaky, surprisingly good athleticism. I believe the current John Salmons is his floor and Salmons averaged 18/4/3 this year.
Next season, people will see that Harden is a closer prospect to Griffin than many give him credit for, and Harden will continue to prove people wrong for years to come. I believe Griffin is the #1 player, but Harden is very talented and not too far behind him.

i think griffin is starting to get very overhyped because of the weak draft class. a while ago ppl were talking about how there weren't really any HOF caliber franchise players in this draft but now some are saying that he will get 25/13 in his prime. tim duncan only reached 25/13 once in his career (25.5-12.7).

in the right system (which i personally dont think will be with the clippers, unless they replace davis as their point guard) i could see him getting 22/11 but for me, that is his peak.

Yeah I might have overestimated his averages LOL.

Maybe 22 and 11.

10th best rebounder in the league last year got 8.9 rebounds. Only one player got in the 12=13 range. Only 3 in the 11 range.

I guess you could argue that David Lee got 11.7 rebounds, so why couldn't Griffin? I can't argue with that, but, there is only one David Lee doing that in the league. And he plays center for the Knicks. Where if he doesn't rebound, who will?

So, it's possible, but, highly unlikely Griffin puts up those kinds of numbers. Only 6 players even topped 10 rpg last year. So, that's quite the achievement right there.

jazzfan1971 wrote:How the heck do you guys see him getting those kinds of rebound numbers? Boggles my mind. I see maybe 8.5-9. NOT 12-13.

How many 6'9 guys with average length do you see in the league getting 12 boards a night?

I'm gonna guess in their 4th years

Griffin
21ppg
8.5 rpg
2.5 ast

Harden
14 ppg
5 rpg
4 apg

Kinda like Antoine Jamison and a Ricky Davis (with a brain). I realize that's not a tremendous amount of talent for maybe the #1 and #2 picks, but, I don't think this draft is gonna give much more than that.

Mindbogglingly low scoring numbers from Harden.

Well, assume he gets drafted by OKC. He's what option on that team? 3rd? 4th? MAYBE 2nd. But, I doubt it.

I have his scoring numbers low because I don't see him ever being a 1st option. Maybe 16ppg would be closer though, but, it really depends on where he lands.

i think harden would have an offensive role in okc similar to what o.j. mayo had in memphis last year. hopefully westbrook will reign it in a little bit and play under control, in which case harden would probably be the 2nd/3rd option on the team imo.

i see him getting about 15ppg if he's drafted by okc and shoots somewhat reasonably. he won't get enough shots to get near 20ppg with jeff green and westbrook competing for offense, but i expect harden will score more efficiently than either of them since he'll be open more.

KD will be good for 25 next year, Green should chip in his 17 and Westbrook will get at least 15.

Not sure if James can get his 15. I think if he lands in OKC, his individual potential would be slightly hindered. Unless Green is traded (which I would hate to see).

Probably plays a part in why I kind of want James in DC.

jazzfan1971 wrote:How the heck do you guys see him getting those kinds of rebound numbers? Boggles my mind. I see maybe 8.5-9. NOT 12-13.

How many 6'9 guys with average length do you see in the league getting 12 boards a night?

I'm gonna guess in their 4th years

Griffin
21ppg
8.5 rpg
2.5 ast

Harden
14 ppg
5 rpg
4 apg

Kinda like Antoine Jamison and a Ricky Davis (with a brain). I realize that's not a tremendous amount of talent for maybe the #1 and #2 picks, but, I don't think this draft is gonna give much more than that.

I actually see his rebounding numbers translating better than his offensive ones. I'm not too sure I see him as a legit 20 ppg scorer.

Griffin will probably top out at about 20pts. Unless he's on a poor rebounding team, 10 rebounds?

Remember there are only a handful of 20/10 NBA PFs

I think this is a very good post and to be honest James Harden really is coming in much higher evaluated than OJ Mayo and Eric Gordon last season. He has alot of questions answered that those two had not. So Evaluation purposes we know far more about Harden.

James biggest question coming in is can he guard the faster 2s in the league.

Griffins biggest question is can he succeed in the paint like he did against smaller collegiate competiion. Griffin doesnt have alot of range and he is very limited to his moves in the paint.
Athleticism, production, and drive should still make him the safest bet.

Griffin is a fantastic rebounding talent. One of the most natural talented rebounders in the league. Dont be shocked to see double double numbers from him next year.