Westbreezy wrote:This thread is amazing. Its why we shouldn't take pre-draft commentary so seriously. Maybe 1/10 guys here actually predicted how good Curry would be
Yeah, that's why we should never try to 'predict' exactly a guy'll look like. The draft is all about gauging potential + reasonable expectation of achieving that potential, and unpredictable things happen all the time. Beasley is quick, athletic, and can shoot but he simply won't do anything but drive left and shoot 15-18 footers? Horford isn't just capable from midrange, but he's one of the best in the world? AD's actually a better shooter than defender?
All you can really do is see what a player seems capable of doing against NBA comp, and then put him up or down your draft board depending on how likely you think he'll be to adapt that. You can't ever tell exactly how many things a guy will develop or how good he'll become at them. In this case, everyone knew Curry could shoot in the NBA, and everyone knew he could probably use his craftiness to get some buckets on drives, runners, and flip shots. That's why he was a consensus top-8 player. But not even the biggest Curry believer could have predicted he'd develop, for example, one of the best jerky, behind-the-back, step-backs in history. Or that his reasonable green-light range would be 36 feet. That sort of stuff you just can't know until it happens, the mysteries of development and mastery are legit.