Castle vs Harper - Who Stays, Who Goes

[imagump1313]

As this topic refuses to go away, let me add a few thoughts as to how I see this issue. Let me preface this by saying that to me, both Harper and Castle remain PROSPECTS at this point. We have some pointers around Castle which says that we think he can at his best become a mini Kawahi, at worst, a poor man's Derek White. For Harper, we only have his college tape and while that seems promising, we have to go off the general assessment of scouts that he is the second best player in this draft by a considerable margin with the potential to be the best after his rookie contract. With that in mind, these are my thoughts on the two.

1. Harper/Castle only gets traded if the target is Giannis and then only one of the two.
2. Neither Harper or Castle gets traded for any other player or combination of players.
3. If Castle turns into nothing better than Derek White, he would be a winning part of a winning team.
4. If Harper turns into Vassell or something even less, we still have a relatively cheap backup PG/SG. If we were to trade him for Lauri or KD, I will guarantee that Harper plays many more games and provides much more value to another team. That is why other teams want him as they see that he can potentially provide much more value to them in the short-term than he is likely to provide for the Spurs. The Spurs however are building this team for the long-term and the first opportunity to say Harper was not a success is if he does not get a near max extension after his third year.
5. If Harper turns into something much more, he can replace Fox in 3-4 years time when a considered and informed choice can be made over the performances of the two for the Spurs.
6. Castle is a SG/SF combo, he is not a point guard. He will get the coming season to show that he is capable of filling that role for the Spurs as I expect him to be the starting SG. Now his outside shooting might not be great currently, but we hope he improves and he showed that he can fill up the stat sheet one way or the other in the final third of the season.

So at the moment, I am more in favor of keeping both. Now there is still lots of time before the draft and I expect there to be lots of discussions for other trade targets, however, without a trade for Giannis, I think our best option is to go forward with both in the short to medium term.

If we think Harper is the real deal, we almost have to move Fox. I'm no capoligist but we need to match salaries for Giannis. Thats any combination of (Fox/Vassel) and (Johnson/Barnes) plus picks that Milwaukee would want. If I'm the Bucks I would want a sign and trade of Fox, whatever player and some high level picks.

Again if we think Harper is the guy, we cant sign Fox anyway because that would make him nearly untradable in the future.

I'm not an expert on Harper so I don't know. But I have seen Fox and we cant keep all three of them, especially if we max Fox. Plus, IMO Fox isnt a difference maker for us like Giannis would be.

[Black Mage]

We have to take BPA and that's Harper. Picking for fit ie/Ace is a talent downgrade.

In a trade you get more for the best talent.

And we can make Fox, Castle, Harper fit. If not, it's a nice problem to have in terms of figuring out which direction to go. And no time pressure to really do it.

I agree with OP in the other thread that Harper for Lauri is not a trade to pursue (we need a down low banger type more) and so a Giannis trade is the only one I'd see us parting with Harper for.

A lot of rumblings about Sixers looking into Tre Johnson at 3 and I've had issues trying to figure out how his lack of defense fits with our already challenged perimeter.

However, I do agree that Tre is elite as a shooter, on or off, and then thought, why wouldn't the Spurs be one of the best teams to maximize Tre's strengths while having the talent around him to minimize his weakness. I know you guys have debated Harper's fit, but how would Tre fit between Fox/Castle/Wemby?

[G R E Y]

We have to take BPA and that's Harper. Picking for fit ie/Ace is a talent downgrade.

In a trade you get more for the best talent.

And we can make Fox, Castle, Harper fit. If not, it's a nice problem to have in terms of figuring out which direction to go. And no time pressure to really do it.

I agree with OP in the other thread that Harper for Lauri is not a trade to pursue (we need a down low banger type more) and so a Giannis trade is the only one I'd see us parting with Harper for.

A lot of rumblings about Sixers looking into Tre Johnson at 3 and I've had issues trying to figure out how his lack of defense fits with our already challenged perimeter.

However, I do agree that Tre is elite as a shooter, on or off, and then thought, why wouldn't the Spurs be one of the best teams to maximize Tre's strengths while having the talent around him to minimize his weakness. I know you guys have debated Harper's fit, but how would Tre fit between Fox/Castle/Wemby?

Tre is getting some Vassell comparisons with respect to his shot and O game. So even as some point out redundancy with Harper while we already have Fox and Castle, there would be some overlap between Dev and Tre.

As before though the main reason is taking BPA and figuring things out from there.

Some drafts have VJ as the 3rd best prospect on their big boards. So it will be an interesting draft in terms of who goes where starting with the 3rd pick. Top 2 seem locked in, even if who makes the choice is going to fan rumour fires bigger come draft time.

[Rustyman]

If we think Harper is the real deal, we almost have to move Fox.

I agree, but we do not have to do this immediately. We can keep Harper and extend Fox and then make the decision after 3 years of Harper.

It is virtually certain that Harper will not provide the value Fox does next year and there is no guarantee he does it after 2 years. Lets look at Castle who was ROY this year, however, he is far from the finished product. We are unlikely to see the best of Castle until his 3rd year. The same applies to Harper.

I think Spurs fans get caught up in what Wemby has done in less than 2 seasons and expect other rookies to do the same. This is not happening. There is a reason why people regard Wemby as a generational talent and the last generational talent we saw (Lebron) took until his 4th year before he made the finals. I don't think anyone regards Harper as being that level of talent. If we keep him and he is, great, if he is a star but not a super star still great.

I think the team with Fox/Castle/Harper/Wemby gives us a better chance of success than one without Fox. That is why I said, the only real game-changer I see on the market is Giannis. Durant is still good, but not good enough to give up the chance of Harper/Fox developing into real stars.

[Black Mage]

We have to take BPA and that's Harper. Picking for fit ie/Ace is a talent downgrade.

In a trade you get more for the best talent.

And we can make Fox, Castle, Harper fit. If not, it's a nice problem to have in terms of figuring out which direction to go. And no time pressure to really do it.

I agree with OP in the other thread that Harper for Lauri is not a trade to pursue (we need a down low banger type more) and so a Giannis trade is the only one I'd see us parting with Harper for.

A lot of rumblings about Sixers looking into Tre Johnson at 3 and I've had issues trying to figure out how his lack of defense fits with our already challenged perimeter.

However, I do agree that Tre is elite as a shooter, on or off, and then thought, why wouldn't the Spurs be one of the best teams to maximize Tre's strengths while having the talent around him to minimize his weakness. I know you guys have debated Harper's fit, but how would Tre fit between Fox/Castle/Wemby?

Tre is getting some Vassell comparisons with respect to his shot and O game. So even as some point out redundancy with Harper while we already have Fox and Castle, there would be some overlap between Dev and Tre.

As before though the main reason is taking BPA and figuring things out from there.

Some drafts have VJ as the 3rd best prospect on their big boards. So it will be an interesting draft in terms of who goes where starting with the 3rd pick. Top 2 seem locked in, even if who makes the choice is going to fan rumour fires bigger come draft time.

Didn't think Vassell was the same caliber of marksman that Tre is. Admittedly, I don't catch many Spurs games. Feels like Tre is the better shooter and would allow you to move off Vassell's contract as Fox and Wemby come due for extensions. Just spitballing here.

[G R E Y]

A lot of rumblings about Sixers looking into Tre Johnson at 3 and I've had issues trying to figure out how his lack of defense fits with our already challenged perimeter.

However, I do agree that Tre is elite as a shooter, on or off, and then thought, why wouldn't the Spurs be one of the best teams to maximize Tre's strengths while having the talent around him to minimize his weakness. I know you guys have debated Harper's fit, but how would Tre fit between Fox/Castle/Wemby?

Tre is getting some Vassell comparisons with respect to his shot and O game. So even as some point out redundancy with Harper while we already have Fox and Castle, there would be some overlap between Dev and Tre.

As before though the main reason is taking BPA and figuring things out from there.

Some drafts have VJ as the 3rd best prospect on their big boards. So it will be an interesting draft in terms of who goes where starting with the 3rd pick. Top 2 seem locked in, even if who makes the choice is going to fan rumour fires bigger come draft time.

Didn't think Vassell was the same caliber of marksman that Tre is. Admittedly, I don't catch many Spurs games. Feels like Tre is the better shooter and would allow you to move off Vassell's contract as Fox and Wemby come due for extensions. Just spitballing here.

I think the shot mechanics/high release shot and movement are reminiscent.

You're right that Vassell and his contract are likelier to be dealt to both clear a guard logjam and address shooting, which we need more of. Ironically Dev is the best guard shooter in 3s but you have to give up something to get it.

We need SF, back up big, shooting shooting shooting.

There are many ways to address these as we've discussed. Draft we must take BPA. Or use it for a high upgrade in talent which would almost certainly involve Dev's contract for salary matching. But we have a lot of assets, picks, and a good cap to improve the roster which we surely will do. It's just a matter of waiting for the big dominoes to fall first.

If we do not land Giannis, then KD is in play, after that I like Murphy III, Herb Jones, NAW.

I'd love to see the Spurs options blackboard right now.

[Ballings7]

In the case of keeping them both.. which out of all the "big change" scenarios for the team, I think I'd lean to this happening for the guard/wing picture going forward.

Castle, outlook - lead guard. mold, role of Ginobili, but less scoring focus, potency. Big guard who can defend, and a triple threat offensively, while being a high-level, capable defender with overall toughness and IQ.

Harper, outlook - big guard, offensive dynamo athlete scorer/shooter balance. Jalen Green esque role on Rockets.

big wing, SF - someone not on the team yet or last year, at this point.. Castle or Harper I don't believe are suitable as longer term solutions as a big wing night to night, over a course of the game.. especially in a playoff series against good teams.. unless, you have a hybrid big forward who can play both positions fairly well (SF and PF), being a good defender, rebounder, and having enough mass/agility.. then it can probably work out well in combo with Wemby at center primarily, and all the other ground he covers postionally etc.

Either of Herb Jones or TM3 would really fit like a glove for the role at SF/big wing, while still being young enough to get better. Luv both their games.

Add: I forgot about Fox somehow, whoops : ) .. I think he's going to stick around, so that narrows the possibilities even more, and makes the importance of a capable, decently sized big wing (SF) even more important.

Sochan, I still believe that he can be that guy in time.. being the big forward alongside Wemby in an ideal world, and would not have issue with the team committing to him as he continues to develop. Team is far from a finished product without more established players and roles at SF and PF.

Indiana has kind of gone this route too.. three bigger wings 6'5" to 6'7" with competent length, strength, and quickness all who can shoot, handle, drive, and defend well enough or better. Then you have a big hybrid forward in Siakam to cover gaps, help, switch, and board well. Plays don't really get run for him much.

But Sochan, also may go out in a deal to improve that big forward player picture for the team. I really like Sochan's ability and potential, his enthusiasm and mentality so far. I'd love to see him be a Draymond Green, Shawn Marion type with better jumpshot range/consistency, ideally.

Vassell I dig his game and have enjoyed his development, but I think Harper and Castle are both probably going to be better than him, and in the short term Vassell's probably going to be chosen against as value being a more "finished product", most likely for advancing the team.. while being a similarily sized and style of wing on both ends.

[Ballings7]

I'm basically not expecting someone like KD, Giannis to be dealt to SA.. it would certainly change things in a hurry if so though, and either of those guys are still big-time top ten players in the league. Giannis obviously top 5-7 and still in the middle of his prime.

KD because of how polished he is, combined with his natural physical tools, is still big-time at 36, 37, and probably even 38.. similar to LeBron has been. After that it gets more questionable and how much he drops off (apart from what's passively already been there in certain aspects of his game, over a season).

The possibilities and capabilities with Wemby/KD or Giannis front court + Fox at PG, would be legendary, wild and extraordinary - would luv to see it.. but the rest of the team may not develop, and shape enough within the next two seasons to really reach the goals desired in the playoffs. Giannis obviously more ideal than KD because he totally has a handful of years left as a top tier guy.

In this scenario .. both Castle, Harper probably wouldn't be on the team. Maybe one of them still is ideally.

[Rustyman]

When we look at Castle, we need to think what he is going to be by year 4 to determine how key he is to the Spurs future.

Now I see 3 possible outcomes for Castle:
1. Pessimistic - He becomes a combo guard or high-end 3&D player who never really develops his 3 pointer beyond league average. Low end Derek White
2. Realistic - Like another #4 pick who became ROY, Scottie Barnes. Minimal incremental improvements from year to year but never a real All Star player. If Castle becomes a Scottie Barnes like player, I am not giving him the max at the end of his rookie deal.
3. Hopeful - Kawhi "light". All round scorer and defender at a relatively high-level. 20 point with 50/36/80 splits and 7 boards, 4 assists. A max player.

This season we hopefully find out what we have and how important he is to the future.

[HMFFL]

Spurs should keep both depending on who they can acquire.

Stephon Castle is only going to go so far if he is a 42% shooter from the field and 28% from three. Those numbers won't be ideal.

[G R E Y]

Spurs should keep both depending on who they can acquire.

Stephon Castle is only going to go so far if he is a 42% shooter from the field and 28% from three. Those numbers won't be ideal.

Sure, in fairness neither have Harper's been in college from distance. It's just there's increasing whispers about how keeping Harper is not Plan A for us (KOC's wording). While I think teams are doing due diligence to see what it would take to pry the #2 pick from us, I do wonder whether it is, in fact, unpryable but for a Giannis situation. I'm not entirely convinced that Harper would be thrilled to be here (being from NJ and Nets trying hard to get him) nor that we are thrilled to make it work alongside Fox and Castle with Harper. Just a gut feeling, and the increasing whispers of this pick being in play for the right price - really, anyone except for Wemby, who is priceless, ought to be available for the right price, has me wondering about the louder chatter.

[Rustyman]

I'd love to see the Spurs options blackboard right now.

Options in order of priority:
1. Giannis for #2, #14, Future First, Devin, Keldon
2. Durant for #14, Vassell, Keldon, Future First top 8 protected.
3. Trey Murphy for #14, Future First, Vassell

Non-Tax Payer MLE - Veteran big man
If no Giannis trade, pick Harper
If no trade for #14, pick Renaud or shooting big man
2nd Round, bruising big (Kalkbrenner/Beringer/etc)

I do believe that the Spurs would be best over the next 3 years if they traded for Durant but not at the cost of giving up something like Sochan when we have ZERO depth in the front court, and rookies drafted this year do not count.