Spurs advanced team stats (2/10/2012)

[SinJackal]

Just a little warning, this will be along post since I haven't talked about the Spurs online for months until tonight, so I have a lot to say. Feel free to not read most of it if you don't like reading much, but you should at least check out the numbers I post on the bottom. . .they are pretty interesting.


Being the long time Spurs fan that I am, I've gone into this season with both excitement and skepticism. Last year, the Spurs looked AMAZING. . .then Manu broke his elbow the last game of the season. "Not this again?", is probably the thought every Spurs fan had when it happened. Sure enough, it was "this again", for the 4th year in a row. We lost in the first round, and imo we would've at least gone to the WCF had that not happened. In any case, can't change history.

This year, again, I was skeptical about going all in with them again. They started off great, then got blown out by the Rockets (who at the time weren't playing well. . .until they played us). Then we picked up another nice win, then Manu got hurt against the Wolves. Instantly, I figured we're going to be a 6th seed at best and probably just make some noise in a round or two before getting knocked off due to the lack of home court.

But no . .the Spurs played well enough to acquire the 2nd seed, not only keeping the ship afloat until the captain got back, but we bailed out all the water and got the sails up and going in the right direction too.

Despite our poor road record to start the season (0-5), we're now 4-5 with 3 weak teams coming up. Not to seem greedy or arrogant, but I expect to win at LEAST two of them, if not all three, with the only potential loss imo being the back to back game against the Raptors. So let's say we do win all three, that's a 7-8 road record after starting 0-5. . . .not bad.


But here's where the advanced stats come in, and why this team is interesting.


Not only have they stayed afloat, and grabbed the 2nd seed (game up above the 3rd seed now too), but this has come with the toughest strength of schedule in the NBA so far this season! We've faced the toughest opponent win% teams out of any team in the NBA so far, and we're (I think), the only team to have never had two days off yet (until now). So not only have we had the hardest schedule by far, we've had almost no time to practice either. All without Manu. . .and yet, still the 2nd seed.

With the SRS stat (simple rating system, measures a team's strength of schedule, and their margin of victory vs opponents vs the rest of the NBA), we're 4th in the NBA behind the Heat. Bulls, and 76ers. 5th place is really far below us, and the 76ers are only up there because they've had a weak schedule against the weak eastern conference teams. Heat and Bulls also have not played many tough teams yet. And again, this is without Ginobili.


We're 6th in the NBA in offensive rating (even without Manu and Ford), and 14th in defense. I hate being 14th, but we're actually not very far off of being 11th. It's extremely close and a single game could get us there. But we're above teams such as the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets, and are well above the Clippers who are way down in that category. So while we're 14th, the west in general is not exactly packing the top 10 there. I suspect this is because the west has much better offensive teams in genera, as opposed to the east have many more bad teams so it's easier to pad the defensie rating stat, so I'm not too choked up about the east having a few teams with slightly better defensive ratings, imo it doesn't mean they're better. I'd go as far as to say at least one point in their ratings is a wash because of their bad competition.

Spurs are also 2nd in the NBA in fewest turnover ratio (behind only 76ers), and we're #1 in fewest FTAs against as opposed to FGAs against (so pace has nothing to do with it). We're also second in the NBA in defensive rebound %, which means we don't allow very many offensive boards. Only Orlando is higher than us in that category.

Of course, we don't get many FTAs called for us either. . .3rd worst in the NBA. But I think defensively that's important, b ecause both the Thunder and Nuggets are 1 and 2 in FTAs. . .so if we keep them off the line, they're losing a very large portion of their offense. Though I've always said that about the Thunder; they can't win unless they get a ton of whistles.


So anyway, wrapping this up, statistically speaking, our team is doing extremely well compared to the rest of the NBA, and this is all without Manu and TJ Ford. Our individual players might not jump off the stat sheet, but the team is performing quite nicely.

Oh, we're also 7th in the NBA in margin of victory, but again, we've had the toughest strength of schedule which absolutely effects that stat bigtime. As we begin to play bad teams, and the teams above us finally have to play tougher schedules, I suspect we'll begin to close those gaps as they fall in those categories. In other words, I don't think many teams are exactly playing better than SA right now. Only Chicago and Miami really look scary as a matchup atm. Stealing a title this year might not be out of the question. . .if, and big if, everyone stays healthy for once for a playoff run.

[co_laper]

Strength of Schedule is the first thing I noticed in Hollinger's rankings. I'm a bit surprised. But perhaps we should look at it again after the next 3 games because they are weak teams. How would that push our SOS percentages.

All in all, I think we're all surprised with what has transpired since Manu's injury. Danny Green showed to be a key contributor. I really hope we can resign him to something cheap this summer because he's grown on me. Kawhi also showed some individual defensive skills I thought he didn't have. I only saw him as a rebounder and a team defense kind a guy who could get steals, but not a potential defensive stopper ala Bruce Bowen. Gary Neal showed better playmaking skills than expected. I also thought as teams become more aware of who he is, he'd have a tough time getting his offense going this season. That didn't happen. And most of all, the play of Tiago Splitter has been huge to the point where I'm completely satisfied with our big man rotation right now.

In some ways, I feel like we're getting a view of what the Spurs team will be in the future and while it might not be title contender, this is a team that will remain in playoff contention even without Manu and Duncan. Right now we have Manu out and we're still good. Splitter looks ready and is starter worthy. Even if we amnesty RJ, Kawhi looks to be real deal. Feels like we're already set for the future and it's gonna be a good one. It might not be a title contending team like we're used to, but I like the idea of having a consistently good team and perhaps developing our own players into a star instead of having to suck real bad for a few years.

[BFrizzy]

Agree with co_laper. Front office again showing why they are respected league wide. We have a team that is not far from being a contender, whilst still somewhat building on the fly with the limited assets we had, and finding the typical Spurs diamonds in the rough (Neal, Green).

Even if we dont win a championship before the end of the Duncan / Manu era, it looks like we can expect a quick turnaround to a quality team who wont be a cellar dweller for long (if at all).

Just as proud to be a Spurs fan now as when they were the team to beat! I still hold dreams of it all clicking later in the year if Manu is fit and firing!!

[SinJackal]

Well yeah, our SOS stat will drop over the next 3 games, but that stat evens out for everyone over the course of a season. The point is, we're the 2 seed right now despite the toughest SOS to date without Manu. That means a lot 'cause even though it drops later it kinda doesn't matter because it does for everyone at some point (or teams with weaker schedules get tougher ones eventually). The point was that we've been good despite a lot of obstacles and everything unfortunately looking like the table was set for the team to crash and burn without Manu.

But seeing as how we are playing some weak teams upcoming, our record will probably be better. Especially road record since we're finally getting some sub .500 teams on the road for a change. The team's offensive and defensive rating stats should also go up because they'll be getting some weak opposition.

As for not being a championship contender, I'm not so sure I'd say they aren't. The Spurs imo are arguably the best western conference team right now, or #2 at worst when you consider what they've done so far, and the fact that they will be adding Ginobili and TJ Ford into the mix. The Thunder won't be adding any pieces, neither will the Nuggets, Clippers, Mavs, etc. They've all been pretty healthy and have performed worse anyway (other than the Thunder, who have been squeaking out some close games to get their good record).

I think they can get to the WCF or Finals this year. . .assuming they're healthy for the playoffs for once.