Offseason thread... MLE,Draft, and all the other stuff...

Donald Kaufman · Post #41 » by **Donald Kaufman** » Thu May 1, 2008 1:37 pm

No to Fin coming back. I think getting younger and more athletic is an overused cliche in the NBA, but we do need to bring in some young talent and develop it.

HarlemHeat37 · Post #42 » by **HarlemHeat37** » Thu May 1, 2008 5:03 pm

we definitely need younger players..

I don't see the point in getting Finley back if we already have Barry for next year..it's kind of pointless IMO..

the only old guy I'd like to see return is Kurt Thomas..

PG Parker/Duhon
SG Pietrus or Childress/Manu/Barry
SF Udoka/Bowen
PF Splitter/Oberto
C Duncan/Thomas/Mahinmi

that would be an ideal lineup for me..Ime would have to work on his shot though, since it isn't nearly as good as Bowen's was during his prime Spur years..I'd like to see Mahinmi get some burn in the regular season next year, since Pop will give Duncan and Thomas some good rest..

pad300 · Post #43 » by **pad300** » Thu May 1, 2008 6:54 pm

Well, lets look at what we have signed next year

Bigs - Duncan, Bonner, Oberto, Mahinmi
Wings - Manu, Bowen, Udoka, Barry
PG's - Parker, Vaughn

Need 2 bigs, 2 Wings, and a PG...

Due to contractual stuff, I am almost certain Splitter will come over next year

Leaves 1 big, 2 Wing, and a PG

We have 2 2nd round picks(48, & 56) and a 1st round pick (26).
We will almost certainly not bring in another rookie big; I can't see Pop wanting to play with 3 of 6 bigs being rookies. If we draft a big, it will be international and stay overseas. I think more likely we draft either a Wing or a PG. I am hoping for a wing, as Pop and rookie PG's don't get along...See Udrih, Washington. I will assume Bill Walker at 26. Assume other picks are either traded or used on internationals (who don't come over), because I am not sure Pop wants a roster with 4 (effectively) rookies on it (Mahinmi, Splitter, Walker, other draft pick). (This assumption may not be correct, either Goran Dragic or Anton Ponkrashov might be available with #48, and as players with Pro experience in Europe might be acceptable to Pop as 3ed PG's).

This leaves 1 big, 1 wing and 1 PG

Contractually, we can re-sign Thomas with Bird rights money, and he's been good so far. I therefore expect us to re-sign Thomas. He's experienced and appears to fit the system. I also expect him not to get too much money - he's already 35... Call it 6-8 M/2 years ; it's better money than I think he'll get anywhere else, as well as ring shots. Works for the Spurs, Works for Thomas, seems very likely.

This leaves 1 Wing, and 1 PG.

Prospects
PG - Duhon (Bulls), Cassell (Celtics), Stoudamire (Spurs), Boykins (Bobcats), Sessions (Bucks), Pargo (Hornets), Mason (Wiz)

Wing - Moon (Raptors), Jones (Blazers), Evans (Orlando), Gomes (T-Wolves), Wright (Heat), Ariza (Lakers), Ross (Clippers), Azabuike, Barnes, Pietrus (Warriors), Hermann (Pistons), Smith (Nuggets), Childress (Hawks).

I'd probably try to sign the PG for the LLE for 2 years, going after Duhon, Cassel and Sessions by preference.

I would use the MLE for the Wing. I suspect due to our # of big contracts ending in 2010, we will be unwilling to offer more than 2 guaranteed years, to preserve the opportunity for a major rebuild at that point. In preference, I would target Ariza, Azabuike, and Gomes. Childress, Jones and Smith are nice, but I suspect they will be looking for full MLE deals.

This might leave us with

Bigs - Duncan, Oberto, Thomas, Mahinmi, Splitter, Bonner
Wings - Manu, Bowen, Udoka, Barry, Walker (or other draft pick), Azabuike (or other FA)
PGss - Parker, Vaughn, Sessions (or other FA).

Blame Rasho · Post #44 » by **Blame Rasho** » Thu May 1, 2008 7:05 pm

I loved your breakdown pad300.

I am not really a big fan of any of the PG prospects but I guess Duhon will do,... the wing players looks more promising. I wouldn't mind Jones,Pietrus, or Childress.

My ideal plan would be to trade up to lets say 18(Wizards pick) using our pick and our Toronto's first rounder and Cash and get Batum,Green, or Alexander.

pad300 · Post #45 » by **pad300** » Thu May 1, 2008 7:26 pm

Blame Rasho wrote:I loved your breakdown pad300.

I am not really a big fan of any of the PG prospects but I guess Duhon will do,... the wing players looks more promising. I wouldn't mind Jones,Pietrus, or Childress.

My ideal plan would be to trade up to lets say 18(Wizards pick) using our pick and our Toronto's first rounder and Cash and get Batum,Green, or Alexander.

Personally, I don't really like that plan. I don't think that Batum, Green or even Alexander are anything other than D-leaguers next year. I am not sure that any of them fit with the team ethos (DEFENSE!). I think that with 2 rookie bigs, next year is a transition season anyway, looking to integrate players and peak at the playoffs as a lower seed... Therefore, may as well bring in somebody closer to NBA ready. As far as potential goes, Bill Walker (assuming his knees check out alright) is as good as any of those guys. I would happily promise our first round pick to Bill to encourage him to stay in. He's an NBA ready body, who has demonstrated a willingness to play D, and serious potential on O.

As far as the PG's go, your right, none are all that inspiring. I personally wouldn't be adverse to drafting Ponkrashov or Dragic at 48 and having them play 3ed pg. But I doubt Pop signs off on it.

HarlemHeat37 · Post #46 » by **HarlemHeat37** » Thu May 1, 2008 7:27 pm

the backup PG position isn't a huge concern, it is a backup role afterall..it's a need that must be addressed, but we don't have to get the absolute #1 option from the list..

Blame Rasho · Post #47 » by **Blame Rasho** » Thu May 1, 2008 7:35 pm

pad300 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Personally, I don't really like that plan. I don't think that Batum, Green or even Alexander are anything other than D-leaguers next year. I am not sure that any of them fit with the team ethos (DEFENSE!). I think that with 2 rookie bigs, next year is a transition season anyway, looking to integrate players and peak at the playoffs as a lower seed... Therefore, may as well bring in somebody closer to NBA ready. As far as potential goes, Bill Walker (assuming his knees check out alright) is as good as any of those guys. I would happily promise our first round pick to Bill to encourage him to stay in. He's an NBA ready body, who has demonstrated a willingness to play D, and serious potential on O.

As far as the PG's go, your right, none are all that inspiring. I personally wouldn't be adverse to drafting Ponkrashov or Dragic at 48 and having them play 3ed pg. But I doubt Pop signs off on it.

Well I think our problem is that we can't score enough at times... I think our D is always there. We just have serious dry spells. I think we will be a strong D team with our bigmen... as long as we have Manu and Udoka I think we will be pretty ok. Bowen will is gettting up there in years so I am mindful of that but I can't see any rookie being a difference maker on D.

I would also like Rush but I think he will be a late lotto pick. I forgot about him.

I am not a big Walker fan... I still can't over that 0-14 game that I saw from him and I don't really think he is coachable given what I have seen from him.

Ballings7 · Post #48 » by **Ballings7** » Thu May 1, 2008 8:34 pm

For an upragde at PG, I want Duhon, loved him since he was a rookie, and don't think he'll be back with the Bulls. He's the best FA PG out there. I don't think anybody else available fits or is realistic... if not Duhon, I'm fine with Vaughn again because of the continuity and isn't a bad back-up. I love Keyon Dooling also, but not sure how effective he is as a facilitator. Might be fine in the role he'd have.

I don't know if Splitter's going to be our other starting big man, quite yet next season, because he's a rookie. Especially relating to the playoffs. Just have to see how things go with that in progression.

I still would love to get Diop if Thomas isn't brought back, and I'd be good with either option.

And a SG/SF to get younger... I'm definitely into James Jones, Childress, Azubuike, Wright, Delfino, Evans.

Not interested in JR Smith, and I don't think we would be (despite past rumblings about him w/ us).

And Rodney Carney I really like, if we want to go even younger (and don't draft an SG/SF).

Ariza, I've been a supporter since his Knicks days, but his jumper isn't there, only a mid-range shot to an extent (can knock it down, but not that consistent), so not so sure we'd look at him, and the Lakers may want him back. I definitely would be happy if we signed him because of what else he brings, and can work on his shot. Maybe even improved coming into next season, because that'll be something he works on in general over the summer.

Draft... SG/SF, can be any of a number of prospects. I like Rush the most though, if he's there

.

ss1986v2 · Post #49 » by **ss1986v2** » Fri May 2, 2008 5:04 am

guess this is becoming the official offseason thread. time for another thesis from ss...

as for free agency, i would think that the spurs will be targeting a bit of youth at the wing. for this discussion, i will assume finley isnt back (spurs let him walk, he retires, he gets struck by lightning, ect...). all year now, ive touted james jones, carlos delfino, and kelenna azubuike. and im still riding those guys. but i have my issues with each.

all year, i tried to find a reason to dislike james jones. but for the first two-thirds of the season, the man was ridiculous. simply phenomenal 3pt and ts percentages. but then he got hurt and lost all the rhythm he had built up. in march and april, he shot 37% from 3 and his season average "plummeted" to 44% (he had been at 50%+ for a good chunk of the season). if you are going to try and argue against jones, here is the list:

-will be 28 next season
-wont fill up a box score (poor rebounder despite his size)
-not as versatile or consistent a defender as bowen (or as good, but who is?)
-injury concerns (hows that leg doing?)

as for delfino, he came out hot (shooting 40% from 3 while taking a ton of them) but finished cold (with raptor fans ready to skin the kid after these playoffs). ive held a special affection for delfino all year becuase im so infatuated with athleticism and measurables. i know those dont make a player (and are usually a far backseat to every other category) but what can i say, i love those things (i guess it comes from being a big nfl fan and a combine/draft junkie). delfino is 6'6", 230 lbs, on a strong, athletic frame. as for his skill set, he has 3pt range (finished the year at 38%), is a solid defender, a decent slasher (although he prefers the outside shot), and a very good rebounder.

problem is his bbIQ leave a bit to be desired. hes not at elson levels, but he is a bit of a chucker. he loves the outside shot (really loves), and has no problem letting ill-advised shots fly, sometimes several steps behind the line (think jj redick back in college). thing is, when hes hot, they dont stop going in. hes streaky, but the range is there. attitude issues have also come about in the past, but this year he was quiet and seemed to accept his role as a 7th-or-so man. if he could be reigned in, hes got so much athletic potential.

as for buike, hes still a bit of an unknown for me. its hard to get reflections from warrior fans, because there seems to be a several prominent posters (and their subscribers) that think buike is nothing but a dleage scrub thriving in nellie-ball, while the others (the majority) thinks hes a capable role player worth keeping around at the right price. and from what ive seen of him... i dont know. hes a decent rebounder (crashes the boards well, getting easy buckets), has range on his shot (career 38% 3pt, but went ice cold in march, 8-of-38 for 21%, and finished at 36% for the year. he shot close to/at 40% the rest of the year), is a quality athlete, and looks to have some potential on the defensive end (cant really tell though, i will explain why in a sec...).

problem is, i havent watched the kid play one entire game of basketball yet. oh sure, ive watch a ton of warrior games this year, but you can hardly call that basketball. its closer to watching the combine (lots of running and jumping and even some drills, but not a lot of game time action). there are next to no real defensive rotations, and some rather odd offensive sets as well (ie, jackson or davis dribbling to the 3pt line and jacking a shot with 17 secs still on the clock seems to be on page 4 of the playbook). so i really dont know about the kid. sometimes he looks like he didnt fit on the court, other times he excelled. but i dont know if either of those things are good or bad (is looking out of place in nellie-ball a good thing?). but hes still young, and those bad nellie-ball habits can still be broken.

as for other options, i dont like chillz (i explained why earlier in this thread, my reasoning hasnt changed). plus hes not obtainable with the MLE (atlanta will surely match, even if they simply intend to trade him later on down the road). i like pietrus for the same reasons i like delfino (an absolute physical specimen, with a great skill set), but his bbIQ is of elson proportions, and he really hasnt improved at all in his time in the nba. maybe pop could save him, maybe he wilts under pop, or maybe he is what he is. wouldnt be the worse candidate, but not one of my front runners.

as for non-wing alternatives, i like duhon and think he would fit in well with pop actually. i do have concerns with the off the court issues, but not so much on a team with the kind of vet leadership of the spurs. problem is, if we do target a wing with the bulk of the MLE, duhon will end up outside of our price range. hes going to get at least what hes making right now (~3 mil) and thats above what we would have left to spend. im not a big diop fan (id rather just keep KT), and i dont want to take on undeveloped headcases, like say gerald green. if you cant contribute today, no need to apply.

i will touch back later with my early draft wishes and rounding out of the roster. ive already spent far too much time typing this mess up, which is probably so long and boring no one reads it anyway...

mudyez · Post #50 » by **mudyez** » Fri May 2, 2008 9:19 am

nice post

ss1986v2 · Post #51 » by **ss1986v2** » Fri May 2, 2008 12:09 pm

ok, back for another go (and another 2,000 or so words)...

as for the draft, the spurs have 3 picks this year (the 26th as well as the 47th and the 57th). this year, there are a lot of solid to decent big men that would easily be available at the 26th. problem is we dont really have a dire need for more youth up front. we have ian sitting on the bench and picking up time with the toros (by the way, while many here seem to be rather high on ian cracking the rotation next season, i still think hes a ways off and will probably end up logging major minutes with the toros next season. i like where hes headed, but hes not there yet, and not really that close). and splitter will probably (hopefully?) be over next season. and while i dont see a major contribution from him next year, i think he will crack the rotation. with that, im not sure pop wants to have another rookie big trying to crack the rotation. so i dont think they go big (unless they decided to stash, which is entirely possible).

so that leaves the wing and the pg spots. the wing spot will probably be a bit thin next year (or at the very least really, really old). so adding a bit of depth and youth here makes good sense. as for the the pg spot, id be willing to bet that a vet would be better suited to give pop what he would want. i would not be surprise at all if we went into next season with vaughn once again (which i dont mind with how tony has played in the last two years). so im figuring that they go wing with this pick.

as for the guys i like in this draft at the wing, there are actually quite a few. in no particular order:

nicolas batum - reminds me of pietrus (for better or worse). good size, length, and athleticism. has a ton of upside, and while has shown it in flashes, hasnt put it all together yet. likelihood of being a spur: very small. even if his stock continues to drop, he is probably a lock for the late lottery/middle of the 1st. too much upside.
chris douglas-roberts - i wasnt a huge cdr fan, but hes winning me over. while he lacks that uber-athleticism that i love so much, hes got just about everything else. smart player, good length, very good and varied offensive skill set. likelihood of being a spur: possible, but not great. he probably goes somewhere in the 15-25 range, or just out of our reach.
joe alexander - i like the kids athleticism and frame, even if i have question about his foot speed/lateral quickness. hes a late bloomer (didnt start playing until his junior year in high school iirc), and probably needs a bit of time to develop. great mid-range game already. he doesnt have 3pt range right now, but he still has tons of room to improve. still not sure if he can guard the wing on the nba level. likelihood of being a spur: again possible, but not too good. i think with his upside, hes gone before 20.
brandon rush - my dream pick. long, athletic, a decent defender with legit 3pt range and all the intangibles you look for. not a great ball handler, could still improve/work harder on the defensive end, and may have lost a quarter of a step after blowing out his knee (may not be an issue with a bit more time). likelihood of being a spur: once again possible, but again probably not great. his stock has been on a rocket as of late, and he probably ends up in that 15-25 range.
courtney lee - hopefully he ends up my consolation prize for losing out on the rest of these guys. has been my 2nd favorite behind rush for a while now. not a stellar athlete (above average, but not stupendis), and he has average length. but he has got a rather strong frame and is the definition of a role player: extremely smart, very good mid-range game, legit 3pt range, decent defender, very mature, and was his conferences player of the year. and thats the biggest question, because he was whopping up on the sunbelt conference. how will he do against nba talent? likelihood of being a spur: very possible to good. he probably ends up in the 23-30 range, with a very slight chance he slips to the very top of the 2nd.

as for the 2nd round, there arent too many players that intrigue me. i really like pekovic and asik, but they both probably go in the very late 1st to the top third of the 2nd. same with casspi (even though i very much dislike the stories about his attitude). im pretty confident that these picks end up being stashed or sold off. there are a couple of foriegn pgs that i wouldnt mind taking and stashing (dragic or beaubois). both these guys are probably a few years away, and may or may not amount to much. but if they are there, it might be worth stashing them and seeing if they develop.

as for fringe players, id like to give marcus dove and patrick ewing jr. a shot in camp if they dont get drafted (or if we cant move our last pick and have to burn it on someone that may very well be camp fodder, see: romain sato). marcus is a 6'9" lockdown defender, but hes even more limited offensively than bowen (and has had some character issues in the past). but if he shows more improvement on his offensive game that he showed this season while at the pre-draft camps, he may be worth a look. ewing reminds me a bit of boris diaw minus the jump shot. 6'8"-6'9", 230-240 lbs. probably closer to a pf than a sf. has shown a great work ethic and willingness to do the dirty work. if he can add a decent 15ft jump shot, he may find a team to stick around with. or he may be totally worthless, as you would expect from most camp fodder.

ok, so that just leaves our own free agents and final roster moves. again, im assuming that the recent rash of shark attacks continues and finley gets eaten by a great white while on vacation this summer. or gets struck by lightning, whichever you find funnier, i will leave that to you (ok, for the record, i dont hate finley, i actually like him, and wouldnt mind him being back. but its more fun to do these things if you assume hes not here. and by "these things", i mean offseason plans, not killing him off in odd ways. although thats kinda fun too...). that leaves jacque vaughn with a player option and kurt thomas as free agents. vaughn is probably back (pop likes him, he does a good enough job, and does it on the cheap). and i really hope we retain KT. something like 2yrs/10mil is probably enough to outbid any other contenders looking for his services, it doesnt hurt us tax wise, and potentially give us a movable expiring in the MLE range the year after next (if KT goes south in that time). im going to assume we end up with courtney lee at 26th, and nothing from the 2nd round (stashed, sold, cut, shark attack, lightning, crushed by a vending machine while trying to retrieve that stuck bag of funyuns, whatever...).

and for this particular scenario, we end up with buike. i figure the warriors easily match anything less than 4 or so mil. lets say we offer the full or near full MLE (4.0-5.5 mil) over 3 years, with a 4th year player option. now that probably wouldnt be a fair starting price if the contract was to include the standard raises each year; ideally we convince buike to sign a declining contract (similar to what nocioni signed last year), with the last option year value increasing rather than decreasing. something along the lines of this (havent run the number on this yet, just pulling numbers here, but i think its at least close to being doable, give or take some fine tuning):

'08-'09: 5.40 mil
'09-'10: 4.70 mil
'10-'11: 4.05 mil
'11-'12: 5.00 mil (player option)

again, numbers arent straight, but this kind of deal helps to discourage the warriors from matching (the higher starting pay means a bigger tax hit for them next year, with both biendris and ellis due extensions) while still having a high enough total value to back them off as well, maximizes cap space/flexibility in 2010 (while still locking up a player for more than two years), and includes reason for buike to agree to this particular structure in the first place (even if he turns out to be a bust, he still gets an extra year at a decent chunk of money in that last year. or if he pans out, he can opt out, get paid thanks to the spurs having gained his bird rights, or seek a better deal elsewhere).

that leaves:

pg: parker/vaugh
sg: manu/bukie/lee
sf: bowen/udoka/barry (if he doesnt retire)
pf: duncan/splitter/bonner/ian
c: oberto/thomas

with this roster, we assume that there is little difference between the 2 and the 3 in the spurs system (as has been seen in recent years). you can do the exact same thing with delfino, but im not sure if hes worth as much as buike might be, but the same concept and salary structure would be nice for the reasons listed above. just sub delfinos name in for buikie.

as for james jones, portland probably really wants to keep him (was a big part of their early success), but they are also concerned with taking on future salary because they seem to be setting up a nice bit of cap room in '09. so im not sure what we could offer that the blazers wouldnt be willing to make the same offer on (although jones isnt restricted, he has little reason to choose us over the blazers if the money is the same from both sides). but lets assume some configuration of the MLE gets it done (and we again assume that the 2 and 3 are interchangeable and that bowen and/or udoka can be on the court with jones at the same time).

pg: parker/vaugh
sg: manu/udoka/lee
sf: bowen/jones/barry (if he doesnt retire)
pf: duncan/splitter/bonner/ian
c: oberto/thomas

that still leaves a spot for a 3rd pg, but god knows where or if that comes about, or if barry is back (i know he is supposed to be under contract, but he may accept a buyout and retire) and if he can handle spot 3rd string duties again. so i will just leave that open for now. ok, time for work now. yall might actually be done reading all that by the time i get home in the afternoon...

Ballings7 · Post #52 » by **Ballings7** » Fri May 2, 2008 8:44 pm

Great job posting, ss... I read like all the 1st, and most of the 2nd.

Magz50 · Post #53 » by **Magz50** » Fri May 2, 2008 8:59 pm

good post ss, i also read..most of your posts..hehe

lukeridenour · Post #54 » by **lukeridenour** » Sat May 3, 2008 2:32 am

really impressed with childress right now. this is my firsrt full game wathcing him play and i can see why ballings loves him so much.

Ballings7 · Post #55 » by **Ballings7** » Sat May 3, 2008 3:33 am

Yeah, I really just began to get into him this season... I didn't know what to think of him really, before.

Blame Rasho, also has had a liking for him

Blame Rasho · Post #56 » by **Blame Rasho** » Mon May 5, 2008 4:06 am

SS... you are awesome... I will make detailed reply to you tomorrow.

Here is some draft news that came out of draftexpress...

If Omri Casspi decides to stay in the draft, that likely means two things. One, he has found a promise in the first round, and two, that is likely coming from the San Antonio Spurs. They