Rebuilding the Spurs

[Rustyman]

Season 2024-25 Player Reviews - The Veterans:

Chris Paul - A

I had my doubts on Chris Paul at the beginning of the season. I wasn't sure if he was willing to take on the mentoring role in a positive manner. Now that the season is finished, I can honestly say he did all I expected and more. He was the leader/mentor to all of the team as shown in multiple interviews. Critically, he helped developed Castle and the player you saw at the end of the season was miles ahead of where he was at the beginning. He help all the team, especially Wemby, understand game IQ and smarts.

His own execution was sometimes lacking and his overall stats were somewhat down on what I initially projected but even if he leaves at the end of the season, he was well worth his $11m paycheck. He started all 82 games and he played with passion, more cannot be expected of him. However, if he comes back next season, he has to be a backup. This season, I understand why he needed to start and I agree with it fully. If he comes back next season he needs to allow the team to flourish without him playing at times.

Harrison Barnes - B+

Like Paul, he provided veteran leadership, especially to players like Sochan and Keldon. His stats and efficiency is the best they have been in 3 years. In fact, one of my criticisms of him is that he has NOT been aggressive enough, often deferring to players who he thought should be scorers. I think he should be kept for the coming season, especially if Paul is leaving to provide the value of that veteran mentorship. The only reason he doesn't get an A is because I think he at times was TOO much of a team player. There were nights when I really thought that he should simply take the primary scoring burden, especially once Wemby was out.

[Rustyman]

Season 2024-25 Player Reviews - Rookie Contract players:

Sochan - B+
The only reason I did not give Sochan an A is that he was underutilized by Mitch and that his performance could be inconsistent at times. What was not inconsistent was his effort and defense, he provide that 100% of the time. Now whether he is a starter or a key bench player will be determined in the coming season when Wemby and Fox are healthy but for me, I would lock him up in a 5 year deal at $20-25m if possible this off-season.

Branham - D
He has been tested and proven wanting. I think he might still be able to make it as a bench player in the NBA but it won't be with the Spurs. He will almost certainly be traded in the off-season. His inconsistency, especially with his shot is one thing but his total lack of game IQ is what essentially disqualifies him from being part of the Spurs future. He will undoubtedly score 40+ points at some point in the future and every fan will say that the Spurs should have kept him but look at him outside that game and you will see a single digit scorer.

Wesley - B
He was on my trade list earlier this season and he might still be a minor trade chip but what I saw this year, even when he wasn't playing in the first part of the season was a guy that always gave 100% effort, still has blistering speed and I think has improved his game IQ, even though it is still short of where it should be for a PG. This is why I think that if Paul does not return this year, Wesley is perfectly fine as the no.3 PG behind Fox and Castle.

Castle - A
I was not a great Castle believer. I still have doubts about whether he can improve his shooting efficiency. He commits totally dumb turnovers in bunches at times, however, there is the potential of a great player there if he improves his efficiency and IQ. He is hard working, both on offense and defense. He has a mature game based on hesitation, strength and savvy. His shooting overall has to improve and the jury is still out as to whether he will do that sufficiently but he is without doubt the ROY for this year. I always wanted Risacher but thought we did not have a chance to draft him but now I am happy with the Spurs choice.

Cissoko/Ingram - Incomplete.

[Rustyman]

Season 2024-25 Player Reviews - The Young Veterans:

Devin Vassell - B-/C
I had high hopes for Devin going into the season but he started off slowly and his campaign stuttered from then on. I know he performed reasonably well in the last couple of months without Wemby/Fox but that is not his role. He has to perform well WITH Wemby/Fox. While his defense has improved in the last third of the season, he needs to be a true two way player and third option to justify his contract. For that reason, if the Spurs jump up in the lottery and they decide to trade the pick, I would package that with Vassell to get a proven third scorer.

Keldon - B
If I was purely rating Keldon on his first half of the season, I would rate him a C or lower. Like Vassell, he improved once Wemby/Fox went down. In contrast to Vassell, he never gave less than 100%. He is also, despite my reservations, the culture king for the Spurs. He keeps spirits up. He simply seems to get the other guys going. If Udonis Haslam could exist 10 years in that role for the Heat, Keldon can do than and be a key bench player for the Spurs. I think I now see why the organization and Spurs players value him.

Champagnie - B
42/37/90 splits on 23 minutes/10 points per game. Julian is the designated 3&D player which the Spurs have been forced to rely on too heavily this season because of injury. He can be an inconsistent shooter but another one of those guys who essentially should be the 7/8th man on the team. His contract is extremely cheap as most other teams will be paying $10-15m per year for the same production and not complain about it. If he can be moved back to an under 20min/game backup, I also think you will see better sustained/consistent performance from him.

Mamu - B
He has become a fan favorite for the same reason Keldon has, i.e. plays his role and does not complain while bringing good vibes to the team. His potential value to the team is as a 9/10th man with the potential to move to 8th. With 50/37/74 shooting splits on low volume, he still brings 10-12 minutes per game and should be given that time consistently. I wouldn't be against him getting a $5m/year on a 3-4 year deal.

Bassey - Incomplete.
The time has come to end the Bassey experiment. He has been injured every year he has been on the Spurs. While I like the guy and his attitude and there is no issue with his skills as a backup big, I just think that it is time for him to try a different environment. There are enough teams in the league who would take him on as a minimum contract backup big. I just think that this role will be performed by a draft pick next year.

[Jamaaliver]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

[Jamaaliver]

Yikes!

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

[G R E Y]

Season 2024-25 Player Reviews - Rookie Contract players:

Sochan - B+
The only reason I did not give Sochan an A is that he was underutilized by Mitch and that his performance could be inconsistent at times. What was not inconsistent was his effort and defense, he provide that 100% of the time. Now whether he is a starter or a key bench player will be determined in the coming season when Wemby and Fox are healthy but for me, I would lock him up in a 5 year deal at $20-25m if possible this off-season.

Branham - D
He has been tested and proven wanting. I think he might still be able to make it as a bench player in the NBA but it won't be with the Spurs. He will almost certainly be traded in the off-season. His inconsistency, especially with his shot is one thing but his total lack of game IQ is what essentially disqualifies him from being part of the Spurs future. He will undoubtedly score 40+ points at some point in the future and every fan will say that the Spurs should have kept him but look at him outside that game and you will see a single digit scorer.

Wesley - B
He was on my trade list earlier this season and he might still be a minor trade chip but what I saw this year, even when he wasn't playing in the first part of the season was a guy that always gave 100% effort, still has blistering speed and I think has improved his game IQ, even though it is still short of where it should be for a PG. This is why I think that if Paul does not return this year, Wesley is perfectly fine as the no.3 PG behind Fox and Castle.

Castle - A
I was not a great Castle believer. I still have doubts about whether he can improve his shooting efficiency. He commits totally dumb turnovers in bunches at times, however, there is the potential of a great player there if he improves his efficiency and IQ. He is hard working, both on offense and defense. He has a mature game based on hesitation, strength and savvy. His shooting overall has to improve and the jury is still out as to whether he will do that sufficiently but he is without doubt the ROY for this year. I always wanted Risacher but thought we did not have a chance to draft him but now I am happy with the Spurs choice.

Cissoko/Ingram - Incomplete.

The thing with Sochan, Blake, and though not part of this group he still earns rookie-like money Champie, is that they cannot make consistent buckets around the rim. Layups are a tossup and that's a problem. Branham is a pro scorer but the rest of the lot really needs to get on the reps for a better toolkit. It can t be hot or miss for a PF, a blazing fast PG whose speed gets him to the rim, and a cutting SF who probably misses at least as many dunks as he makes.

That said, a lot of mocks have us picking up at least one SG/combo guard so it leaves Branham out I think.

We don't yet know how many positions we will need to fill as perhaps both our starting vets may or may not be here, and at least CP won't be starting if he will.

Branham's contract and scoring may get us *something* or as part of a package to a rebuilding team or one farther along looking for a bench scoring punch.

But team needs are starting level SF, backup big, starting PF depending on what happens with Barnes (who should be our backup 3/4 if all falls into place nicely), any one of which we can start addressing with the picks we have in this draft.

I like that Sochan said in exit interviews we're looking to bring back some nasty, but if he's not tightening up his finishing package by year 4 he's a quality bench energy D guy. So there will have to be some trades to address needs as well.

Right now there are too many moving parts with respect to which players are staying (which affects available cap), which pick positions we will have, and which players we're targeting via draft, FA market or trades.

We know there's mutual interest for a Fox extension, so that will have to be factored into all of it.

Lots of work to do this offseason for PATFO.

[Rustyman]

But team needs are starting level SF, backup big, starting PF depending on what happens with Barnes (who should be our backup 3/4 if all falls into place nicely), any one of which we can start addressing with the picks we have in this draft.

I would agree but the starting level forward needs to be some 6-10 and upwards. That is why my first choices are Derek Queen/Asa Newell with the 8th pick and Essengue/McNeely with the 14th.

[Rustyman]

With regards to the Fox extension, I think the Spurs do it as they simply gave up too much to let him walk after one year. I think they do a 3 year extension in the off season for less than the max. I think this deal would have been agreed with Fox before making the decision to sign him.

[Jamaaliver]

And Spurs have one. It's in the article.

End of an era.

Read on Twitter

[G R E Y]

With regards to the Fox extension, I think the Spurs do it as they simply gave up too much to let him walk after one year. I think they do a 3 year extension in the off season for less than the max. I think this deal would have been agreed with Fox before making the decision to sign him.

Agree that something was agreed to before the trade, however that happens, but i think it's longer than 3 years. Frankly I'd be thrilled with that length, but we'll see soon enough.

[Rustyman]

Okay, so we are into year 3/4 of the rebuild. The Spurs are now at the crossroads. Do they continue with the grow naturally approach they have done to date or do they go out and get another all star to expedite the growth.

Before we can answer these questions, we have to look at what our expectations for the Spurs are in the coming season. For me they are as follows:
1. 50+ wins and direct qualification for the playoffs.
2. Wemby to be first team All NBA
3. Second round of the playoffs.

With that in mind, my preference would be to accelerate the development. The first part of which is what do we do with our newly minted 2nd round pick.

[Rustyman]

The Spurs got great luck in getting the no.2 pick, however it leaves them with a quandry. Do they keep the pick, trade the pick or trade down.

If they keep the pick, the Spurs have a problem as Fox, Castle, Vassell, Paul, Wesley, Branham can't all co-exist in the 1-3 spots. Of those, Paul is likely to retire or the Spurs won't bring him back at the same price. Wesley and Branham are disposable. If Fox, Castle and Vassell remain, there are very few minutes for presumed 2nd pick Harper. Simply drafting Harper and not trading away other players would be a disservice to the value of the 2nd pick. So keeping the pick and trading Fox/Castle/Vassell is likely to deliver a less than an allstar player unless they combine it with other assets like in option 2.

Next option is to trade the pick. Two options are in a deal for Giannis or Markennen. Either of these is what I would prefer but the costs are likely to be significantly different. For Giannis, you looking at the no.2 pick, two prospects + future draft capital. For Lauri, you are looking at the no.2 pick plus salary cap filler which is likely to be Vassell and Keldon. The price for Lauri is likely to be considerably lower.

The third option is trade down, trade for future picks and no.5/6 where Derek Queen is likely to be available. This was the option the Spurs would most likely to have followed, if they hadn't jumped to no.2. It may yet be the one they choose to follow.

[G R E Y]

Well this is the kind of crossroads and quandary that is most welcome.

The jumping up in the lotto for the third consecutive time ensures a higher floor, if nothing else.

I don't think that consolidating our assets necessarily means a shift away from our proper rebuild. After all, why work so hard to clean the cap sheet and stock the cupboard with picks if not to pounce when an opportunity presents itself? At some point, we ought to reward ourselves.

It's a great position to be in that simply selecting our pick improves us noticeably.

Yes Fox, Harper, and Castle overlap. McLaughlin is UFA, gone. Branham is disposable in a trade, and Blake can go either way, 3rd stringer or gone in trade. Count on CP3 returning in some capacity should we get Giannis. He's smart and knows where his best chance to compete in that scenario is.

Devin is very likely trade bait with both that contract and being the odd man out.

Even if/once we re-sign Fox, the next backcourt has time to gel and grow and flourish in Castle and Harper.

Or we go Traore at 14 and it will eventually be Nolan and Steph with even more trade fodder.

Lauri is hampered by not being an inside excelling big and by having a blowhard in Ainge as decision maker. We've kicked those tires and balked.

Giannis has to be for the right price, not any cost. We will not gut all our depth for it. It will largely get dictated by his direction as to where he wants to go.

We can also explore the Bam route. He was roommates with Fox in college. But not sure Riles goes for it.

I've heard Claxton suggested but he seems kind of mentally unstable and can't help us with the Jokic/Embiid behemoths of the league.

If we're trading, we're upgrading with the thought of adding fits to our culture while being able to handle playoff competition. In other words, someone who wants to be part of a sustainable upwards trajectory and willing to accept this is *Wemby's* team, not a begrudging mercenary. That's a waste of assets when we have a growing more organically option with a high quality option at #2.

As Wemby said, we don't skip steps, but we can go up them faster.

If we get Giannis, we still have to address a long term starting SF. And backup C. Things to consider when pushing so many chips to the middle of the table.

We have to navigate the balance of picks getting stale as teams know we can't possibly use all the 1st rounders ourselves. So it's a time of separating wheat from chaff. Of both taking advantage of unique opportunities and counting the cost. As always, we think for now and for the future.

If we can possibly make trades for more win now players (ie/Fox) while Wemby is still on his rookie contract and maintaining depth, we're golden.

p.s. there's rumours/whispers we know about, and those we don't. There HAVE to be preparations in place for all manner of scenarios, and now that we know we have #2 pick leverage, it puts us in a strong negotiation position. After all, we make 0 trades, we get better.

Let the declarations of wanting to play with Wemby continue...

[Rustyman]

Great post GREY!. The question however, is who is the right player to add. My preference of gamechangers in order would be Giannis (price too high), Markannen (price now more realistic but not a post player), Durant (price is likely to be reasonable but how much does he still have in the tank). However, who of them is most likely to accept being a support to Wemby.

If we keep the pick, I am convinced that Vassell has to go, however, we would be recouping cents on the dollar for him. Also, at around 27m per year, we are likely only picking up someone else's castoffs. To make the return on Vassell better, we have to add components where Vassell is only the salary ballast, not the main value.

I don't think the Spurs are trading Fox, that simply goes against the way they have always done business. Also, I don't think they trade Castle unless the prize is Giannis. For me, the first brick to fall has to be who do we trade for or if we at all trade before the draft. If we trade the pick before the lottery, our course is fairly set as accelerating the tempo, if we don't trade the pick, it is incremental growth.

[Rustyman]

I have never seriously considered the Heat route for Bam as I don't think we have much that they want and Bam is on a max deal for the next 4 years
($39-58M) with the last couple of years being in the 58/59M per year range. Also, while a big, Bam is not on the same level as the rest.

If we are going to take on that type of salary, it is only going to be for Giannis ($54-53 for the next 3 years). Markannen is in the 46-53 range for the next 4 years. Durant is $54M next season and is probably looking at a 2 year extension. If we go for big fish, we have to get rid of Vassell, Keldon which gives us $44M in tradeable salary. We really don't have much else to offer up except Barnes at $19M and Castle and I don't want to sacrifice either of those.

[Rustyman]

A great point made by GREY above is that the 2nd pick increases the Spurs overall talent level. Whether that be Harper or a player he is traded for. With the Spurs still being a relatively young team, what I am looking for consistent production which can compliment Wemby/Castle/Fox to ensure the Spurs don't go into those all familiar scoring droughts.

The reason I push so hard for Lauri is that he has had a relatively down year, his price is likely to be lower (hopefully the pick #2 is the bulk of the deal) and he is likely to bounce back.

Also, if we look at the Spurs team, Wemby is and outside in kind of guy, I will expect him to split his shots relatively equally amongst paint and 3's. Castle is an inside scorer at this stage of his career and needs to improve his efficiency and Fox is a driver, only about a third of his shots are 3's. Therefore, if we are making a trade of Vassell, I want a proficient 3 point scorer and Markannen has consistently taking 50% or more of his shots at 3's at decent efficiency.

With the need for a big, I don't really expect us to have a scoring big, I think we should be focussing more on a defensive big which is why I am comfortable meeting that need at 14 in the draft or even possibly in the 2nd round. Mamu is adequate as a scoring 4 man. We need someone to take Bassey's place.

The thought about Traore at 14 interests me even though we have a stash PG from last year. I think it all depends on Fox, do they add another 2 years to his current deal or do they give him longer.

[Rustyman]

A question which puzzles me around the potential trade of the #2 pick or Castle as the main element of a trade for a star.

Now let me be clear, I like Castle. Mostly I like his attitude/approach as he seems like a dedicated focused player with lots of internal drive. The part I don't like about Castle, is his efficiency, his shooting splits are pathetic but no different than for most other rookies. There is a reason he won the ROY as he plays relentlessly. However, if Castle does not improve his efficiency to 45/33/80 splits this coming season, his perceived value as a key component of the future comes into question.

Last season, Podz of the Warriors was regarded as untouchable. This season, he is ready to be thrown into a deal to get another piece for the Warriors.

Last year Jabari Smith Jr of the Rockets was regarded as a key building block for the future. This year, he is available in trades.

Last year Reed Sheppard was a consensus top 3 pick, this year he is available for trades by the rockets.

Two years ago there was questions about whether Scoot Henderson was potentially better than Wemby, now he is an afterthought.

What I mean by all these points is that often we overvalue potential (Castle) above the unknown (in this case Dylan Carter/trade). Who do we think is the better long-term pick for the Spurs. Despite my bias towards Castle, I am more and more inclined to think it would be Dylan Carter who without a doubt would have been the no.1 pick if he was in last year's draft.

However, my biggest hesitation with trading Castle is that he gives me Kawhi vibes and I think he may follow the same development path even though Kawhi was a much better shooter to start off with.

[dbrog24]

Some of yall are crazy for talking about tradebacks or 2nd pick for Markannen. There's a reason for the first half of the College season, it was debatable whether Harper was better than Flagg. Harper has elite handles, better shooting, and still really good playmaking. He's also got great instincts for help defense (blocks/steals). Flagg is definitely better on man defense and has higher creativity with his passes.

Still either project pretty significantly higher than the rest of the already deep draft class (so that should tell you something). Harper could certainly play the 3 if he had to and very much fits in the positionless trend now in the NBA. He could provide much needed playmaking with still ability to spread the floor (unlike Castle).

I think we would be stupid to not run with Fox/Castle/Harper/Wemby unless we can work a trade for Giannis. Other than that, there are no names being floated on the market that I would get excited about. I guarantee Harper is at worst a lower tier starter and at best, one of the best playmakers in the game in a couple years

[Rustyman]

I think we would be stupid to not run with Fox/Castle/Harper/Wemby unless we can work a trade for Giannis. Other than that, there are no names being floated on the market that I would get excited about. I guarantee Harper is at worst a lower tier starter and at best, one of the best playmakers in the game in a couple years

I agree that if we cannot get a good deal for Giannis, we basically continue as we currently are with Harper and the 14th pick. We also have the MLE so we can get someone like Yabusele or a similar big PF/C.

[Rustyman]

Lets look at the bottom of the Spurs roster to see how the team can build strength in depth. At the moment, the bottom 6 players on the Spurs roster plus the two ways looks as follows:

Blake Wesley - Should be retained as the 3rd PG but can be traded if anything worthwhile comes up.
Malakai Branham - Seems to have learnt nothing in his 3 years with the Spurs. Trade fodder.
Jordan McLaughlan - Ballast. Will not be renewed.
Charles Bassey - Injury prone. Cannot be relied on as a 3rd big. Hopefully he catches on elsewhere but his Spurs days are numbered
Bismack Biyombo - Injury replacement for Bassey. Will not be resigned.
Sandro Mamukelashvilli - Should be retained if the price is right but I think he may bet a $7-$10m deal which prices him out of the Spurs.

David Duke Jr. - Hasn't shown anything in his time as a 2way. Time for him to go.
Riley Minix - There might be something there. Keep on the 2nd year of a 2way.
Harrison Ingram - Spurs tend to keep their 2nd rounders for 2 years so he is likely to stay.