RealGM

I was just thinking about RJ and what should our expectations be regarding his stats this year. Last year I guess was a big premature. We were expecting him to score much despite being the 4th option and also him not being in as good a shape and trouble fitting in to the offense played a part.

This year, he's in good shape and he knows the system. What remains the same is that he's still the 4th option on this team. Sometimes 5th since I think George Hill is more assertive on creating and looking for a shot than Jefferson does.

Keep in mind I'm not counting the 1st game because while he was equally effective, the Spurs limited his minutes because of the foul trouble.

so... not counting the 1st game where Richard Jefferson was in foul trouble, he has played 31 and 33 minutes. Last year RJ averaged 31 minutes. I'll assume 32 minutes is the ideal number.

FG attempts, he had 9.6 FGA last year in 31 minutes. He took 22 shots in the last 2 games. I think averaging 11 shots a game sounds about right.

FT attempts, last year he averaged 3.5 attempts and we all see how tentative he was. This year he looks aggresive so i'm counting on his FTA rate during his Milwaukee years or his career average. He gets about 6 FTA in 35 minutes. So if I'm thinking 32 minutes, lets say maybe he gets about 5 a game. A healthy 1.5 attempts increase from last year.

3 point shooting, he should throw in a 3 pointer each game. Averaged 0.7 last year.

Scoring wise, that means if I assume he shoots his normal percentages, he'll end up with 15 points.

Rebounding wise, he didn't hit 5 rebounds a game since 2005-2006 season and I can't see him having some sort of career year rebounding considering he's not gonna play 40 minutes a game anyways. I think he does somewhere along the lines of last year which was 4.4 rebounds a game.

So I think this is what we should be expecting from RJ this year. An aggresive scorer as good as his prime years in Milwaukee/NJ good enough to score 15 points as the 4th option and take down 4.5 rebounds a game.

I think maybe we should use last seasons expectations and bring them forward to this season, ie. around 15ppg. I'm not overly concerned about his rebounding numbers, like you say he won't be reaching 5 per anymore.

That being said, I'm more interested in his approach to the game rather than just stats. He's looked more focused and assertive offensively this year than at any time in a Spurs uniform. I just hope he can maintain the level of intensity he has shown so far and carry it over into the playoffs.

I agree with Donald in the stats thing. RJ didn't have "bad" stats last year, the problem is that he didn't bring the same kind of game every game. Obviously, he can do better stats, but not being consistent was his problem.
For example, I heart RJ saying that if he made his FT every night he would probably average 1 or 2 points more per game. That's helpfull already.
I don't care if he average 3 or 6 rebound a night, cause Spurs usually don't have a big problem in that area. What i want from RJ is that he can have 6-8 rebounds in those night that we are being raped in that area. At the same time, i want his scoring when the big 3 are off or when the bench isn't producing. To sum, i want RJ to be the man that steps up in the area the team needs (defense, rebounds, scoring).

Laker fan here always had mad respect for the Spurs and I want Jefferson to keep this up.