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jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:23 am
by blackham9258
I get the feeling that your front office will come hard at Paul Millsap (4/32-36M) right out of the gate with a take it or leave it help us win a championship offer. Its the kind of smart move I think your franchise would pull. I could also see a Jefferson play but at (2/22-25M).
What do you guys think?
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:23 am
by Attonitus
Nah, we are pretty deep up front, maybe Jefferson but I highly doubt us going after Millsap.
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:29 am
by co_laper
Next year's cap limit 58 million.
Right now, with no Manu, no Blair, and no Stephen Jackson, while keeping Splitter and Neal''s Qualifying Offer, we're set at 41 million. Problem is, there will be cap holds for Manu, Blair, and Jackson. The team can't just use their cap room, and then go over the cap to sign Manu. To use that cap room, we have to renounce bird rights to Manu. If we did that, we can only use our cap room or MLE to sign Manu.
I think Manu will get a Tim Duncan like contract for his last year. Like a 2 year 20 million type.
What the Spurs could do is quickly re-sign Manu, and that left about 7 million of cap room to use. That's probably not enough to get Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap, unless the Spurs also renounce Tiago Splitter. That opens up an extra 5 mil. So yeah, they could in theory offer Paul or Al that kind of contract.
Do I think we do it? I'm not even sure who's in the market. But yeah, I kinda hope so.
C: Duncan / Bonner
PF: (Millsap/Jefferson) / Diaw
SF: Kawhi / 2.5 mil exception
SG: Manu / Green / Nando
PG: Parker / Patty / Joseph
That looks good. We'll have to let go of Neal, Jackson, and Splitter, but we have enough depth on the team to survive it. We also have a 2.5 million exception for teams that used the cap room. That can be used to sign backup SF, or even resign Jax. That's probably his worth considering his age. I think we'll have our first rounder to use next year. Probably use that as a project big.
All in all, I hope we can get a big man with that money. Unfortunately, knowing our history of chasing FAs, we probably won't get anyone. But there are an abundance of players that might fit into that big man slot. There's Josh Smith, Pekovic, David West, Chris Kaman. They're guys that I can actually see coming here.
My first choice will be Josh Smith. He's in his prime, athletic, can pass, and we definitely need his shotblocking. He could actually turn our defense back into a strong one with Duncan, Josh Smith, and Kawhi upfront.
I like Pekovic but that moves Duncan to PF, a position he can no longer play IMO as the league gotten quicker and smaller.
David West probably second best option in terms of offensive fit along with Paul Milsap. Problem is with these two, they're stuck at PF. These guys can't play Center, and that makes it hard for us to find a partner for them. Al Jefferson atleast could play both PF and C, but he sucks defensively so I don't really like him.
I'm just hoping for Josh Smith. He's a perfect fit.
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:40 pm
by franktony
I think Millsap will get more in the market, probably 10m/year at least. Al Jefferson will make a bit more and I don't think he wants to sign a short-term contract. 3 or 4 years at least.
It's difficult to make a prognostic about SAS cap space situation next season. There are so many things involved.
Mills and Diaw have a PO, so we still don't know if they're gonna stay or not. Manu and S-Jax will be UFA, but there's a massive cap hold involved for both players. If Manu doesn't retire, SA probably keeps him. I think he will make a bit less than TD (something around 8m/year).
Neal and Splitter are RFA and knowing SA, I am not so sure they will let them go that easily, unless someone severely overpays for them. Blair is gone and I think SA will buy Bonner out (only 1m guaranteed). No way in hell they keep him with that 3.9m salary.
Saying that and knowing SA's FO for such a long time, I think they plan to keep what they have and like and then they will persue a FA (obviously a BIG).
My target (considering that I don't think SA will have enough cap space to bring an expensive BIG) would be Carl Landry. He is making only 4m and he has a PO for the next season. Pretty sure he is looking for a long-term and better contract. I would offer him the full MLE or even a bit more (Brandon Bass type of contract) to lure him to SA. To me he is quite underrated and he would be a great fit in SA.
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:26 pm
by Ballings7
Landry struggles against teams with good defensive length, shouldn't have him starting unless it's next to prime Shaq... Millsap is better being more agile and polished offensively, but I don't like his lack of size defensively next to Duncan, despite being tough and strong... people forget he carved out his niche early as a good defender and rebounder before he dropped some weight and expanded his offensive game...
Josh Smith I think actually would work pretty well despite being undersized mass-wise, Duncan's length on both ends and smarts would complement him well.
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:50 am
by franktony
I wasn't thinking about starting Landry with Duncan. I would actually start him off the bench to play with Manu give a nice fire-power to the bench. Blair, Bonner and Splitter is not cutting it. Not only Landry is a great p&r player, but he also has a nice mid-range jump-shot. I think Boris is a good fit next to Duncan, even though sometimes he defers too much.
I don't disagree with you, but we have to be realistic here. Otherwise, I could say we should target Lamarcus Aldridge or Kevin Garnett but it simply won't happen. SA won't have enough cap space to make a huge offer for Smith (and he will get an offer close to the max, you can book it) and they don't have assets outside the BIG 3 + Leonard to get him straight up from Atlanta.
Millsap struggles against size as well and Boris shut him down in the playoffs last season. Smith is 6'8 and even though he is a good defender, he takes bad shots and he doesn't have a high BBIQ. I doubt Pop would stand a guy like him taking bad shot, after bad shot, especially when he falls in love with that crap mid-range jump-shot.
Landry is not perfect, but he is possible. Smith won't happen, even though I agree he is better than Landry.
Re: jazz fan theory on your off season moves
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:49 am
by Ballings7
Smith probably won't happen, I agree. Landry in that case would be better than Bonner and seemingly Blair who isnt' as consistent.