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15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Sun May 3, 2015 4:11 am
by Phreak50
First things first, amazing season to follow the dream run we experienced this time last year. Just about any one of the West playoff teams, when healthy, can win any given series. So certainly no shame in losing a 7 game series in the last second.

But in saying that, the 'let's bring the crew back one last time' notion has passed. Guys need to retire, others have to be moved.

I don't expect many changes but I think for the better of the team Manu and Bonner need to retire and free up their roster spot for others.

Would like to keep Green if we can afford him (without overpaying him) and hope he keeps improving beyond an already improved and more consistent year.

I don't see Parker being a starter in this league any more. Regular season sure, but he just doesn't rise to the occasion (slightly injured or not) and as I said before the round started (and have been for years) he struggles in pressure situations and just in general against teams with shotblockers. He has had a really good career but he just can't hang with the big boys any more and in all honesty the longer he was on the court, the easier it was for the Clips. Does Parker want to be a one team player? I think we could move him for space/something to fill some of our needs.

I doubt we can afford him, but Jeremy Lin (if his stocks have dropped to where he didn't cost that much) would actually be interesting to see in our system. Good pick and roll option, solid mid range, strong to the hoop, decent three point shooter when left open. Definitely needs to improve his handles but we don't have the cash or bargaining chips to bring in a superstar.

Splitter is a handy bench player but we need something new inside. An intimidator, someone tough. Again, if it took moving Splitter, fine but I don't see any team taking him on.

If we end up spending every cent we have banking on Leonard being the franchise guy, he'll need to keep refining his offensive game.

Other free agents (not including guys like Marc Gasol, Aldridge etc we might chase) I think could help us : Wes Johnson, Brendan Wright, Wesley Matthews,

We only need a couple tweaks here and there, depending on who retires. Being selfish, it would be nice to see new faces too.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Sun May 3, 2015 7:25 am
by -Sammy-
Good stuff.

I'm not as convinced as you are that Tony is finished. He's past his prime, to be sure, but I tend to believe that his struggles this year had more to do with health than an intrinsic decline in his talent. He's had decent jump-shooting for years, and he can develop that a bit more and perhaps work even more on his three-point shooting (like Kidd did on the backside of his career) to offset his waning penetration. I just think he's been with Pop so long and knows the system so well, we need to keep him around. I think he has one or two good years left in him.

I agree about bringing Danny back, and about how Kawhi needs to continue to develop his offense, but we saw so much growth in him this year, I'm confident he can do it. He's never going to be a Durant, but there's no reason why he can't be a low-20s guy.

I further agree about Gino and Bonner. Bless his heart, Gino's meant so much to this team and that city, but it's time for him to accept that his body just can't keep up with his brain anymore. Same with Bonner- those are roster spots and salary dollars that need to be rolled into the next generation of Spurs.

The ultimate hat-trick, of course, would be to somehow swing Aldridge and Gasol... I can dream, right? Failing that, I'd take Gasol first (though I don't see him leaving Memphis), but Aldridge would be a nice runner-up prize. The last time we were in a position to make a big free-agency acquisition, though, we went 0-for-2 (Kidd and Jermaine O'Neal, way back in 2003), so we need to be prepared to stock up on system pieces if we don't hook either of the big fish.

In the end, I think we all trust the front office to put a solid crew together, and I'm excited to see what our 2016 Spurs look like.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Sun May 3, 2015 9:09 am
by co_laper
I don't want a complete overhaul, but I don't want to bring the "whole crew" back. We have our core rotation in place and we build from there.

A lot will depend on Tim Duncan. If he and Manu retires, we'll be able to have max capspace to throw to Aldridge etc. But if Duncan comes back, I'm sure he'll be paid decently, then we won't be able to add a max guy. Our best chance will be to retool and that basically means using our MLE to replace Manu's production while trying to bring our rotation guys back again.

So I just think there will be 3 scenarios this summer. One where Duncan comes back, and another where he doesn't.

If Duncan comes back:
Then I think we're likely to see the same core back. We'll sign Kawhi to the max. Bring back Danny Green for sure. The bigger question mark on the 8 man rotation is whether we bring back Marco. Either way, our 8 man rotation will look pretty much the same. Splitter, Duncan, Kawhi, Green, Parker starting. Diaw, Marco (or/and MLE guy), and Patty Mills. We will have the ability to bring back Baynes and even Cory if we want to. Basically we're just replacing Manu with somebody and go at it again. If we're healthy, we should be just as good as this year. Ayres, Reggie, Bonner all need to be gone.

If Duncan retires and we manage to lure a Max FA (Aldridge)
Then I think the group will stay competitive. Not sure if we have enough money to bring back Green, but I think eventually he stays if the offer is close enough. Splitter, Aldridge, Kawhi, Green, and Parker starting. Diaw and Patty off the bench. Problem is that we won't have MLE so the bench will be shorter than usual. Opening the cap room to sign Aldridge means we can only offer Baynes, Marco, and Cory the minimum. I doubt any of them takes it. Kyle Anderson will need to play and not sure how ready he will be. We'll round the team up with our draft pick and some veterans. But the core guys will likely be just with Diaw and Patty. We won't have depth like previous years.

And last scenario is if Duncan retire and we can't lure anyone worth a damn.
Then I'm not sure we'll be any good. We might be good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but that's about it. We might even miss the playoff and start a slow rebuild where we end up trading Parker the season after. If we lose Duncan and Manu and not able to replace them with anyone good, then the Spurs should just entertain going on full rebuild and work around Kawhi. Let him star alone for the year and hopefully accelarate his offensive game. Just give him the ball. Preserve capspace for next summer when everyone is a FA and we'll have Kawhi and tons of capspace to work with.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Sun May 3, 2015 10:46 am
by Phreak50
In a series where Parker was very, very bad, if Pop still didn't play CoJo, there's no point in him being here. (Nor would Joseph want to)

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Mon May 4, 2015 3:14 pm
by Nolan
If Manu and Duncan come back or even if only Duncan comes back I can't see us making any major changes. Our priorities should be resigning our restricted guys and Danny and then tweaking the back end of our roster.

Like others have said it's probably time for Bonner to retire and open up a roster spot for us, I doubt Ayres comes back, Reggie is probably going to end up on the waiver wire and as for Marco i'd like to see him back but it has to be at a reasonable price. So if Marco comes back and our first rounder ends up on the roster we should have two open roster spots.

The two guys i'd like to see us bring in are Jae Crowder and Bismack Biyombo, two younger guys that'll provide us with some toughness and rim protection two things I really think this team needs.

Biyombo's offensive game is a disaster, but it's no worse than Baynes was when he first arrived here and I think he can be fixed.

As for Crowder I think he's the next DeMarre Carroll and i'd be perfectly fine with bringing him and letting Marco walk, he'll give us a 3rd legit permiter stopper and having the ability to play him and Kawhi at the forward spots will give us a ton of flexibility.

If we can't get those two guys some other names i'd be happy with are Pero Antic, Al-Farouq Aminu, Kosta Koufos, Alexis Ajinca or Omri Casspi.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Mon May 4, 2015 3:21 pm
by Nolan
BombsquadSammy wrote:Good stuff.

I'm not as convinced as you are that Tony is finished. He's past his prime, to be sure, but I tend to believe that his struggles this year had more to do with health than an intrinsic decline in his talent. He's had decent jump-shooting for years, and he can develop that a bit more and perhaps work even more on his three-point shooting (like Kidd did on the backside of his career) to offset his waning penetration. I just think he's been with Pop so long and knows the system so well, we need to keep him around. I think he has one or two good years left in him.

I agree about bringing Danny back, and about how Kawhi needs to continue to develop his offense, but we saw so much growth in him this year, I'm confident he can do it. He's never going to be a Durant, but there's no reason why he can't be a low-20s guy.

I further agree about Gino and Bonner. Bless his heart, Gino's meant so much to this team and that city, but it's time for him to accept that his body just can't keep up with his brain anymore. Same with Bonner- those are roster spots and salary dollars that need to be rolled into the next generation of Spurs.

The ultimate hat-trick, of course, would be to somehow swing Aldridge and Gasol... I can dream, right? Failing that, I'd take Gasol first (though I don't see him leaving Memphis), but Aldridge would be a nice runner-up prize. The last time we were in a position to make a big free-agency acquisition, though, we went 0-for-2 (Kidd and Jermaine O'Neal, way back in 2003), so we need to be prepared to stock up on system pieces if we don't hook either of the big fish.

In the end, I think we all trust the front office to put a solid crew together, and I'm excited to see what our 2016 Spurs look like.


I'd love to have one of those guys but if we're going to have the opportunity to chase a max free agent I think we should try and go after someone younger that we can pair with Kawhi going forward. The guy i'd love to see us get is Jimmy Butler. I think there's a chance that Chicago let's him go and he'd be perfect fit here.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Mon May 4, 2015 6:28 pm
by co_laper
Nolan wrote:I'd love to have one of those guys but if we're going to have the opportunity to chase a max free agent I think we should try and go after someone younger that we can pair with Kawhi going forward. The guy i'd love to see us get is Jimmy Butler. I think there's a chance that Chicago let's him go and he'd be perfect fit here.


This is why I really hope we can get Kevin Love. Love is still 26 years old, compared to LMA who is going to be 30 this July. He's someone Kawhi can grow with together. Love fits in offensively with everything we do, meaning that he shoots the 3, he passes the ball very well, and he's not a guy who forces up shots or needs to be in isolations.

However, I do think that of LMA, Love, and Gasol, it seems to me like LMA is our best chance. Love's injury will make him feel as if he's the missing piece if Cavs lose. Marc just isn't likely to leave IMO.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Mon May 4, 2015 8:47 pm
by Nolan
co_laper wrote:
Nolan wrote:I'd love to have one of those guys but if we're going to have the opportunity to chase a max free agent I think we should try and go after someone younger that we can pair with Kawhi going forward. The guy i'd love to see us get is Jimmy Butler. I think there's a chance that Chicago let's him go and he'd be perfect fit here.


This is why I really hope we can get Kevin Love. Love is still 26 years old, compared to LMA who is going to be 30 this July. He's someone Kawhi can grow with together. Love fits in offensively with everything we do, meaning that he shoots the 3, he passes the ball very well, and he's not a guy who forces up shots or needs to be in isolations.

However, I do think that of LMA, Love, and Gasol, it seems to me like LMA is our best chance. Love's injury will make him feel as if he's the missing piece if Cavs lose. Marc just isn't likely to leave IMO.


I can't see Love opting out though. I think he'll stay one more year then go after all that 2016 money. I do agree that he is a good on the offensive end, but his defense really worries me.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Mon May 4, 2015 9:41 pm
by Phreak50
As well as we did and as close as we came to winning against the Clippers, we still need some changes and really can't expect Duncan to play at the same level or as many minutes if he comes back. So if that happens, I really hope he'd be honest enough to accept that and not sign for so much money that it ruins our chances at a FA.

And I still say that Manu hasn't got it in him to compete for another year but the way Pop is talking about how well it pays, I can see him (obviously) and Timmy and Manu coming back. As amazing as this franchise has done, it isn't perfect. Tony Parker is now massively overpaid for the rest of his contract, Splitter's deal is embarrassing in relation to where his game has evolved (or rather hasn't) and signing Manu for anything more than the minimum will hurt us.

I understand loyalty, respect and acknowledgement for past success but you can't risk the future based on that. Unless we are secretly planning to pair Kevin Durant with Kawhi a further year down the track, I think now is the time to finally get that big name FA in Gasol, Aldridge, Love (even Butler I guess).

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Tue May 5, 2015 5:36 pm
by law_1990
As said previously, if Manu is to come back it's gotta be for the minimum. We live and die by him but this year you can see that he just ain't the same Manu. Not even in a small capacity anymore which breaks my **** heart.

Timmy can keep playing until he's 44 ffs, the only thing stopping him is if he wants to just call it a day and start spending time with his family more. I hope HOPE HOPE HOPE he comes back because honestly he's as effective as he's ever been.

Tony worries me, he's injured more often than not and now it's becoming more of a problem. Usually you'd see him still running the floor and making stuff happen but this year it's just been VERY hot and cold. Honestly i'd like to see pop rotate patty/cojo more often next year in the starting PG spot. Give them more responsibility, what's the worst that could come of it? if it doesn't work it doesn't work and you go back to what it used to be. But if it does work then you've got a whole new dynamic to work with.

Out of Gasol/LMA/Love i'd go with Gasol if we were to make a move. Love ain't going nowhere this year, not after his shoulder going pop. I do like LMA but Gasol has been a dream for a while now.

eeeh, just gotta see what happens now.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Tue May 5, 2015 8:11 pm
by pad300
I agree with most posters - this is going to be a season of big changes for us:

The biggest issue on the table is TD. I think he'll be back; he has repeatedly said "till the wheels fall off", and they haven't fallen off yet. We pay for him - if he wants $10M/yr, he gets it... but I'm pretty sure he will take less, again, to give the team a better position.
The second is Manu. He was still OK during the regular season, 16.2 PER, WP/48 of .157; however, those are his lowest numbers since his rookie season. I don't want Manu to retire, but I think we'd be unwise to bring him back for anything but the vet min. Hopefully he makes a decision before the FA period starts.
Tony is an issue, but it's not one we will address this offseason. PATFO will give him another season to try and put things back together, for loyalty and respect (and also, it's unlikely you would get much value trading him).
Kawhi is a resign for the Max.
Green is also a resign, unless he gets his head turned by crazy money. From his comments, "Hopefully, I’ll be back” “I love San Antonio", it sounds like something should be doable. I could see $10M/yr on the open market but hopefully we get a discount and are talking $8M/yr (he did cost himself some money with the Clips series).(Important Note, Green and Kawhi's cap holds are ~ $15 million between the 2 of them).
There are a bunch of players under contract (Mills, Diaw, Splitter, Anderson). Some of whom could move to make cap space.
Finally, there are the other FA's: Ayres, Bonner, Baynes, Belinelli, and Joseph. Ayres and Bonner should not be back. Belinelli has stated he has to go for money on what might be his last contract; I think he's gone. I would like to keep Joseph, but he should have been playing over Parker this series; he'll likely be gone. Baynes I wouldn't mind keeping as 3ed C, but I think someone will show him more money than we are willing to; see what happened summer 2014...
That leaves us with
Bigs - Duncan, Splitter, Diaw,
Wings - Kawhi, Green, ?Manu?, Anderson
PG - Parker, Mills
Add 1 rookie either a big or a creative small (PG or SG who dominates the ball a la Manu). We are short at least 2 bigs, and likely 1 wing/pg.
I suspect we will strike out on the "name" FA Bigs that are being talked about (Love, Monroe, Aldridge/Gasol- in order of personal preference); which might be to the good.
Assume we draft Delon Wright (DX current draft pick, it's as good a guess as any...), and some draft and stash foreigner... (Alpha!Kaba according to DX).
For the remaining wing spot, I would consider bringing over Nemanja Dangubic. Or trying to pick up Nick Calathes (there is hope for his shot - he hit 39% on 5.2 3FGA/g in his senior college year). Bring Landry Fields into the SL team, and see if his shot is fixable... (Statistically, it is in very limited minutes this year; if it really is, he would be quite a good get for the vet min).
For the bigs, I would target, Alexis Ajinca, Amir Johnson, and Jonas Jerebko. All of whom can play and are likely to get the MLE or less (much less for Ajinca).

TL/DR:

Bigs - Duncan, Splitter, Diaw, Johnson, Ajinca, Jerebko (can play some SF)
Wings - Kawhi, Green, Manu, Anderson, Calathes. Dangubic (D league)
PG - Parker, Mills, Wright

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Tue May 5, 2015 8:21 pm
by SpursNBucks
The Main Cast of Characters

PG
Parker- 3 Pt shooting better, but Assists down quite a bit. He's missed 10-12 games last few years. Stuck with him for 3 more years.
Mills - worst year- terrible shooting- was injured- hope he regains form - signed 2 more years reasonable contract
Joseph- Had his best year (only 23) - try and bring him back, I still think he can be the future. Shouldn't cost much
I think for now they are set at PG

2G
Green - If you can resign him for something like 3 yrs/$18mil you do it. He's 27, he should be able to maintain his level of play.
Manu- 1 year contract near min -- he was making $7m
Key will be if they can bring back Green on a shorter term reasonable hometown contract. There's going to be some demand out there. RJ Hunter (Draft) might be a good pickup for the future. If Green gets a big offer resign Belinelli to take his spot.


SF
Leonard - Best player/Building block- absolute #1 priority
Anderson- Little bit you saw, was not good. Only 21 and you hope he develops. On a cheap rookie contract
Obviously way too early to give up on Anderson, I would be looking hard at Hollis-Jefferson in the Draft - Spurs kind of player

PF
Duncan- Still playing at a high level, if they don't tear it down you can talk him into coming back. He wont play elsewhere.
They need to look to free agency here - Bonner and Ayers are gone. I would look hard at signing Greg Monroe- he's only 24 can be a building block with Leonard for the future. The Spurs will make him an even better player. Not likely to return to Detroit.

C
Splitter - Making a trade that works for the Spurs wont be easy. Injuries, lack of improvement, and unfavorable contract.
Diaw- Slightly better contract then Splitter, but harder to move at 33. Worst year as a Spur.
Need to try and move Splitter. Kaminski would be perfect fit, but Spurs would have to move up in Draft

The overall these of this coming year should be - the Spurs swan song - the last year you see the big 3 together. This will catch on locally and nationally. I would think about promoting it if I were Spurs PR. It will be emotional and inspirational. They have to go all in though - figure out a way to add one more major piece - Aldridge is a very remote possibility. Monroe isn't the splash, but younger and can be more of the future with Leonard going forward. The most realistic Draftee (who liekly to be there) may be Hollis-Jefferson.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Tue May 5, 2015 11:48 pm
by HoneyBadger
Do you guys think Kyle would be in the rotation next season? I still believe he is a great fit for Spurs' system but unfortunately he was not good enough the crack the rotation this season.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Wed May 6, 2015 12:01 am
by SpursNBucks
HoneyBadger wrote:Do you guys think Kyle would be in the rotation next season? I still believe he is a great fit for Spurs' system but unfortunately he was not good enough the crack the rotation this season.


It was smart to send him down to the D-League- he did pretty well there. He averaged just over 20 pts/and 8 reb/ on 44% shooting. Hopefully that gave him some confidence, he does have a skill set that should mesh with the Spurs style - excellent ball handler and passer at the SF position. He's a unique player being a PG in a SF body. I think he needs to get stronger and be kind of a Paul Pressey - point forward type.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Wed May 6, 2015 3:10 am
by Nolan
HoneyBadger wrote:Do you guys think Kyle would be in the rotation next season? I still believe he is a great fit for Spurs' system but unfortunately he was not good enough the crack the rotation this season.


It's possible, he needs to work on his body and refine his skills a bit but I really don't think he's that far away. He got plenty of minutes at the start of the year when Kawhi was out and he held his own.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Thu May 7, 2015 12:19 am
by HoneyBadger
He needs to get both faster and stronger, I reckon he should get around 20 mins if Ginobili retires. Anyway, we'll see.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Thu May 7, 2015 8:05 am
by willywazza
I think Tim Duncan and Manu will come back for one more year.

I really hope Timmy doesn't retire because he still has quite a lot left in the tank.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Thu May 7, 2015 4:27 pm
by co_laper
Nolan wrote:
HoneyBadger wrote:Do you guys think Kyle would be in the rotation next season? I still believe he is a great fit for Spurs' system but unfortunately he was not good enough the crack the rotation this season.


It's possible, he needs to work on his body and refine his skills a bit but I really don't think he's that far away. He got plenty of minutes at the start of the year when Kawhi was out and he held his own.


Yeah everything depends on what improvements he makes this summer. If we're simply judging based on how he ended the season, then I'm not sure he has a role on this team unless we simply don't have better players.

Kyle, even in D-league, can't guard anybody on the perimeter. He's mostly used as a PF in Austin and that's where he gets to use his dribbling skills againts PFs who aren't used to guarding a perimeter player. As a SF, Kyle has nothing on his game that's above average other than passing. He can get by PFs easier than SFs. And he really doesn't have 3 point range yet.

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Fri May 8, 2015 10:43 pm
by SPURt
It's tough to move on from this last season as there was so much expectation after last year. I see mixed opinions on Manu, but I would love him to come back and play spot minutes.

I think next years roster will include:
Duncan, Parker, Manu, Kawhi, Green, Anderson, Bobo, Mills

On the fence:
Marco (not sure we can make it work financially, but I love his grit), CoJo (deserves a chance to play more minutes and that will not happen in SA), Splitter (probably a cap casualty), Baynes (I'm actually fairly confident he will be back as I don't think he will see a much better offer somewhere else)

Gone but not forgotten:
Bonner

They were on the Spurs?
Ayers, Williams

If we see 7 new faces next year that'd be a huge change like Pop promised. I'm betting Aldridge does come if I was going to choose from the big names. Other than that, I'm excited to see what RC and Pop do. Whenever they sign a player there is always the potential for greatness. Not that he is perfect (RJ, Mason, Ayers, etc.) All in all, Bobo, Marco, Patty, Baynes, Green, those guys came off the trash heap.

Honestly, Kawhi did too as he is clearly one of the four best players of his draft (Kyrie, Klay, and Jimmy Butler being the other three). I really wish we had taken Butler instead of CoJo. At any rate, it's gonna be a fun summer!

Re: 15-16 Roster predictions/desires

Posted: Sat May 9, 2015 3:09 pm
by Nolan
SPURt wrote:It's tough to move on from this last season as there was so much expectation after last year. I see mixed opinions on Manu, but I would love him to come back and play spot minutes.

I think next years roster will include:
Duncan, Parker, Manu, Kawhi, Green, Anderson, Bobo, Mills

On the fence:
Marco (not sure we can make it work financially, but I love his grit), CoJo (deserves a chance to play more minutes and that will not happen in SA), Splitter (probably a cap casualty), Baynes (I'm actually fairly confident he will be back as I don't think he will see a much better offer somewhere else)

Gone but not forgotten:
Bonner

They were on the Spurs?
Ayers, Williams

If we see 7 new faces next year that'd be a huge change like Pop promised. I'm betting Aldridge does come if I was going to choose from the big names. Other than that, I'm excited to see what RC and Pop do. Whenever they sign a player there is always the potential for greatness. Not that he is perfect (RJ, Mason, Ayers, etc.) All in all, Bobo, Marco, Patty, Baynes, Green, those guys came off the trash heap.

Honestly, Kawhi did too as he is clearly one of the four best players of his draft (Kyrie, Klay, and Jimmy Butler being the other three). I really wish we had taken Butler instead of CoJo. At any rate, it's gonna be a fun summer!


Manu can still be effective if he finally realizes that he's isn't the same player that he was five years ago. He can still be a very useful player if he just slows things down a bit.