RealGM

what do you guys think our team will look like?

i think the only realistic big name we might be able to convince to come here is chris bosh since hes from texas.

i also see ginobili heavily weighing out a lucrative offer from an overseas team and ultimately taking it. this is because i dont see ginobili getting another 10+ mil contract for multiple years because he'll be 31/32.

one thing is for sure, duncan will be around, but will tony or manu?

Tony will be here because he'll still be under contract.

The Spurs were rumored to be talking extension with Manu pre-Olympics. Given Manu's performance (i.e. his ankle looks fine) I think they'll go ahead and extend him 2 more years.

The Spurs can probably scrape together enough cap space to offer a >MLE contract, but I don't see a way to clear enough room for a MAX deal.

I'm not expecting any big name players to come here, but I think we'll definitely need to get a 4th offensive creator (likely a SF/SG), if not having him already before 2010.

I'm confident we will (again), if we don't, then that is simply inexcusable. I actually kinda think the above-mentioned is inevitable.

lets look at contracts we will have on the books in 2010 (im going to use a salary cap of 63 mil for these calculations):

tim duncan.....18.7 mil
tony parker....13.6 mil
ian mahinmi.....1.6 mil
george hill.......1.1 mil (not positive on this figure, but its close)

total...........35 mil
cap space....28 mil

now that assumes we renounce our rights to all our free agents, and sign no one longer than 2010 from now until then. now lets assume we give manu an extension, and that he isnt taking a pay cut (2yrs/20 mil extension). that leaves us with about 18 mil in cap space. we have a 1st round pick in 2010 also, so thats about a mil there, and we are down to 17 mil. figure in the min cap holds (about 3 mil), and we now sit at 14 mil. thats right on the line of having enough room to land a high-end free agent (deal would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5yrs/80mil, or what elton brand got this summer).

problem is, that leaves at least 6 spots we have to fill with nothing to spend but the min. maybe we coax KT or oberto back for one last season (they would be 35 and 37 then) or some other vets from around the league. maybe we fill some spots with our 2nd rounders between now and then (but if they are on the roster already, then you can cut that 14 mil even smaller). but in the end, we end up with a pretty thin team. no mason (would have to be renounced) and no udoka (would have to be let go), and no significant signing for the next two years.

and all of this just for a chance at a top tier free agent, that most likely wont even change teams. look at this summer. the only big time moves were the elton brand/baron davis/maggette deals (and possibly gordon to wherever he ends up). thats less than a handful of moves during a summer where next to no one had cap space. in 2010, a good 10+ teams look to be in the hunt with 10+ mil chucks of cap space.

i think our best bet is probably to land something with a >MLE offer (in the 7-9 mil range) while continuing to collect pieces between then and now (ie, not letting udoka walk if he continues to show well; trying to move some expiring contracts before the deadline to get quality players, even if they hinder our cap space in 2010). if we simply sit on our hands for the next 2 seasons, i think its going to come back and bite us.

^^^ Splitter's draft rights would be on our cap too. So there's another $863,300 of potential cap space gone.

coyotes_geek wrote:^^^ Splitter's draft rights would be on our cap too. So there's another $863,300 of potential cap space gone.

yeah, i was too lazy to figure his number so i just counted him as renounced. if we wanted to keep his rights (and at the cost, theres very little reason not to) he eats into the space as well.

ss1986v2 wrote:

coyotes_geek wrote:^^^ Splitter's draft rights would be on our cap too. So there's another $863,300 of potential cap space gone.

yeah, i was too lazy to figure his number so i just counted him as renounced. if we wanted to keep his rights (and at the cost, theres very little reason not to) he eats into the space as well.

Fair enough. It certainly doesn't change the outcome any. We can pretty much forget any dreams of Bosh, Lebron or Wade. But, being able to beat an MLE contract would still be pretty significant. There's going to be a whole tier of guys in 2010 who think they're worth more than MLE, but can't command the 8 figure salaries. Guys like Joe Johnson and Mike Miller for example.

Ballings7 wrote:I'm not expecting any big name players to come here

Just to clarify - Kobe, LeBron, Yao, Wade, Pierce, Carmelo, Bosh, Pau...

Unlikely at best, heh

Real solid post ss1986v2. Great thoughts backed up by the numbers. It's just not feasible to add a 4th big contract to this team or any other because you have to sacrifice pretty much all you're depth. How many teams have a Big 3 and how many have a Big 4? Unless you can get some ring chasing old guys to fill out the roster you're always gonna be better off with depth than 4 great players and a bunch of scrubs. Unfortunately SA has just been so good for so long they aren't the "sexy" choice (for lack of a better word) so most vets take the min. deals elsewhere. Tim, Tony and Manu ARE good enough to win more championships, the FO just needs to use the leftover money wisely and bring in good pieces.

BigWeezy wrote:Real solid post ss1986v2. Great thoughts backed up by the numbers. It's just not feasible to add a 4th big contract to this team or any other because you have to sacrifice pretty much all you're depth. How many teams have a Big 3 and how many have a Big 4? Unless you can get some ring chasing old guys to fill out the roster you're always gonna be better off with depth than 4 great players and a bunch of scrubs. Unfortunately SA has just been so good for so long they aren't the "sexy" choice (for lack of a better word) so most vets take the min. deals elsewhere. Tim, Tony and Manu ARE good enough to win more championships, the FO just needs to use the leftover money wisely and bring in good pieces.

You may have a solid point Weezy. Due to the fact that the Spurs have their cash flow tie into TD, TP, and Manu, they can't afford to take on another big contract without sacrificin their roster in terms of keepin certain positions filled up. With that, here's another question. With TD gettin on up there, how can the Spurs compensate in terms of draftin some quality talent to eventually take TD's place when that time comes?

SD2042 wrote:You may have a solid point Weezy. Due to the fact that the Spurs have their cash flow tie into TD, TP, and Manu, they can't afford to take on another big contract without sacrificin their roster in terms of keepin certain positions filled up. With that, here's another question. With TD gettin on up there, how can the Spurs compensate in terms of draftin some quality talent to eventually take TD's place when that time comes?

we need to hope that from what we currently have (mahinmi, hill) and what we have to work with in the next couple of years (one 1st round pick in 2010, a handful of 2nds over the next two years) work out well enough to at least be contributing members of the rotation. if we can get some help out of guys like gist or splitter sometime down the road, that would be nice too. but even if we dont, if we can manage the other things over the next 2 years, along with a bit of cap space larger than the MLE in 2010, i like our chances (at least in the short run). long term, its just too hard to look that far without having any lottery level prospects available to us.

look at portland. everyone is exalting them for do such a great job of building their current team. but think about what it took to get that team together: the better part of the decade spent as a losing franchise, while acquiring draft picks left and right. not to disparage the job their front office has done (its easy to get the picks, but you still got to pick the talent), but it sure is easy to build a team of young up-and-comer when you pick #13 (rush: moved with jack, a former #22, to get bayless, a #11), #1 (oden), #4 (tyrus thomas: turned into LMA), #6 (webster), #13 (telfair: later moved along with ratliff for a #7, brandon roy). as well as a handful of late firsts earned, acquired, purchased, and swapped along the way (kleiza, (who was traded for jack), outlaw, fernandez, arthur, (who became batum), kopenen, and freeland).

so unless the spurs end up in the lottery in the next 3-4 years, its going to be very hard to add any top-tier prospects to replace the old guard (going to have to get lucky on draft night). things are probably going to have to get worse before they can get better at that point (speaking on the long term efforts).

I don't like having Manu on our team past this point..I appreciate everything he's done for our team, but he's too unreliable at this point..not on the court, but the fact that he seems to always be injured now..if it was me, I'd trade him now, since he's the only asset on our team that could get us ANYTHING with any value..won't happen though, obviously..

SD2042 wrote:

BigWeezy wrote:Real solid post ss1986v2. Great thoughts backed up by the numbers. It's just not feasible to add a 4th big contract to this team or any other because you have to sacrifice pretty much all you're depth. How many teams have a Big 3 and how many have a Big 4? Unless you can get some ring chasing old guys to fill out the roster you're always gonna be better off with depth than 4 great players and a bunch of scrubs. Unfortunately SA has just been so good for so long they aren't the "sexy" choice (for lack of a better word) so most vets take the min. deals elsewhere. Tim, Tony and Manu ARE good enough to win more championships, the FO just needs to use the leftover money wisely and bring in good pieces.

You may have a solid point Weezy. Due to the fact that the Spurs have their cash flow tie into TD, TP, and Manu, they can't afford to take on another big contract without sacrificin their roster in terms of keepin certain positions filled up. With that, here's another question. With TD gettin on up there, how can the Spurs compensate in terms of draftin some quality talent to eventually take TD's place when that time comes?

The ugly truth is that they can't. Tim Duncan is a once in a generation player. There is no replacement for him. That's why I don't have all that big of a problem with the Spurs strategy over the years of choosing vets over kids. The championship window is now. The Spurs need to be thinking short term, not long term. If you can find a young guy along the way, great, but they're hard to come buy. The system is set up to work against teams like the Spurs in that regards. Good teams get bad draft picks. Good teams having to pay big money to their good players don't have the big money to attract other good players. It's the NBA's attempt at parity.

coyotes_geek wrote:The ugly truth is that they can't. Tim Duncan is a once in a generation player. There is no replacement for him.

I felt the same way about David Robinson.

Well I would love for Bosh to don a Spurs uni, but that is very unlikely. I wouldn't get my hopes to high on getting a name free agent but it seems like players are more willing to sign. No one and their mother knew 3 months ago that Davis would sign with LA or that Brand would end up with Philly. Free agency is very flexable nowadays and it might not look like we would have a chance to sign a big name, but in 2 years... who knows.

Who knows, maybe through some kind of miracle, the Spurs can strike at that diamond in the rough player in the draft somewhere in the future. As for the championship window coyotes, the window is open, but the time is starting to slip away.