GT: Rockets (23-18) @ Spurs (25-16)

[Nolan]

When: 8:30 PM ET, January 22, 2010
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

Tonight is the first game of a 6 game home stand in which we're going to need to start shooting a better percentage from the floor. Our offense has been awful lately and with the Rockets being such a solid defensive team we're really gonna have to execute on offense if we want to win this one.

Also Tim Duncan is only 1 point away from 20,000 for his career and i'm just going to assume he's to become only the 7th player in history to reach that mark tonight.

Go Spurs!

[SApuro_]

Not going to be an easy game. Houston always plays us tough. Spurs need to pull it together and start a run. I can't believe another home game. I am tired of losing these home games we should have won. Lets get to the hard part of the schedule and see what this team is made of.

[Rendezvous]

You guys should rest Tony Parker and Tim Duncan

[SApuro_]

Very disappointed with this team. We compete night in and night out but just haven't put together full games. We need to either make a big trade or accept that our best chance at another title is next year when RJ, Dice, Blair feel more comfortable with our defensive schemes. How the hell do we give up 116 pts to Houston.

[Donald Kaufman]

We don't really have the luxury of waiting another year. Not with this current group.

Houston are a great team, really tough, but yeah giving up 116 to them is not good enough.

At the moment, we're a 2nd round playoff team at best. We're not competing with a healthy Lakers team. We'd have troubles against the Nuggets in a series, and if they reacquire Camby that's another big to contend with.

I'm enjoying watching TD this year, he's been a pleasant surprise, and Blair has had some great games. But RJ is a major letdown, as is Dice. I expected nothing from Ratliff. Ginobili has been up and down, and his best years are clearly well behind him. TP has not been himself all year, partly Plantar and partly trying to incorporate new players into the system.

I miss the days when Bowen, Bones Barry and Big Shot Bob were out there.

[SApuro_]

Yeah it kills me if we were to piss away this yr. Duncan has been playing amazing and now would be the best op for another ring. You couldn't ask more from him. Blair and Hill have been great to see develope. Dice has been a real let down and was expecting so much more from RJ than just settling for jumpers. Manu has been exciting to watch of late. TP has slowed down quite a bit but what do you expect the kid has been playing hard for years. Going deep in the playoffs and constantly representing his country. It was going to catch up sooner or later.

Funny thing is everything is really wide open. LA has looked very beatable this year. Still holding out that we will catch fire late and make a strong push. We'll see what the rodeo road trip brings.

[Donald Kaufman]

Uggh, I forgot about the Rodeo Road Trip. I don't think I can bear to watch. It might get ugly.

[DEEP3CL]

Turnover King and SApuro, I remember telling you guys in that long running thread that RJ was going to struggle to absorb the Spurs concepts in his first season. His erratic play proves as much, you have to remember he never played with a quality front line for most of his career and never on one that had a dominate score such as Duncan.

Those things are tough for a guy who basically came from a high tempo system to a more methodical style as the Spurs. TK you said the Spurs are a second round team at best, but in order for them to win it they'd have to have some sort of HCA to do so. As of the moment they would face Portland and that team despite not having Oden is still athletic enough to cause problems for the Spurs, and they'd have HCA.

And SApuro you said the Lakers look beatable......true but every team has looked beatable this season so far. I usually make my assessment on if a team can win it all by watching more intently after the ASB. The true contenders usually turn it up another notch after the All Star break.

[Donald Kaufman]

TK you said the Spurs are a second round team at best, but in order for them to win it they'd have to have some sort of HCA to do so. As of the moment they would face Portland and that team despite not having Oden is still athletic enough to cause problems for the Spurs, and they'd have HCA.

Which is why I said 2nd round at best. Meaning that getting to the 2nd round is the best case scenario at this point.

[TAI8]

That was a pathetic defensive showing..This team is fundamentally flawed..We will NOT win anything with our current roster..Our small ball lineup is killing us defensively..We can't play Parker and Hill at the same time and expect the opponent to not exploit our undersized back court..We NEED a more conventional lineup..I'm thinking about moving Ginobili for a competent backup SF and good defensive big..He's an expiring and not getting any younger (32 right now) and Hill is good enough to pick up the offensive slack..It will be sad to see Ginobili go but it's for the best..

[TAI8]

Their complaint is that small-ball gives the Spurs a different defensive identity.

The thought–and one that has proved fairly successful–is that small-ball helps San Antonio generate offense. So far as antidotes go, it makes sense for a team that is notorious for long scoring droughts.

Prior to this offseason, San Antonio didn’t have enough players whom could generate their own offense. Bruce Bowen, you’ll remember, was phased out for this very reason. Their offseason makeover was intended to correct this personnel problem, among others.

But here’s the thing: as the Spurs have increasingly featured small-ball lineups their defense has become increasingly less effective. I’m open to the possibility of a spurious correlation between small-ball and mediocre defensive play, but it’s something for a capable stat geek to investigate. The chronological correlation is hard to miss.

In the meantime, there is this quote from Gregg Popovich:

You got to play a lick of defense if you want to win in this league. Our defense against Utah and against Houston was very poor. 60 points in the second half against Utah and 61 in the second half tonight. That’s not going to win basketball games. It looks like the effort and all that sort of thing is great, but way too many mistakes…not enough focus…not enough execution. We’re scoring enough points to win games. We’re scoring more points than we’ve ever scored in our lives, but our defense is really sub-par and it’s killing us.

But I raise the question with an open mind. An answer to the question of how small-ball effects the Spurs’ defensive play–which, I suspect, the Spurs already have through an in-house statistician–would, for example, inform the Spurs’ trade market deliberations. And many other things aside.

There is also the possibility that Gregg Popovich doesn’t have the confidence in the team’s available bigs, at least not to execute his defensive schemes with great precision. As I mentioned above, the plus/minus data does suggest the Spurs play better small. In this case, small-ball plays the role of the lesser of two evils. But then, that doesn’t satisfy the question of which moves, if any, to make on the trade front. Unless we know if small-ball is capable of complimenting the Spurs’ defensive schemes, we can’t know if a move for Jeff Foster or, say, Marvin Williams is the right path forward. In the case of the former, the Spurs move to correct their personnel issues. In the case of a combo forward, the Spurs embrace playing small and upgrade their overall talent.

http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/01/25/small-ball-and-defensive-rating/

This is going into what I was getting at..

[Donald Kaufman]

Hill def can't be played alongside TP, bottom line. That's not getting it done defensively.

We're a team in freefall. It's been coming for a few seasons. We held onto our core for too long and now their trade value has dropped. What could we have got for Manu two seasons ago compared to now?

We committed too much financially too late. We should've overhauled this roster right after we won the 07 title. Winning that title, as great as it was, is why our roster is in the state it's in now.

It annoys me that we're wasting such a good year from TD.