2008/09 Roster

[djthesonicsfan]

Basically this season was a planned washout aimed at getting another top pick, developing K Durant & J Green, and, conveniently enough, alienating Seattle basketball fans. But this season and that plan is over thank god. Now it

[D5150]

if the supes don't land rose it's probably status quo at point next season. if they can't get rose they need to go big. swift and sene are huge question marks. a watson/ridnour combo is probably better than anything you can land in the draft (besides rose of course) or free agency. the real problem for the sonics is the front line. collison and probably petro are keepers, but wilcox should be moved while his value is still relatively high.

i think the sonics should actually go for quantitiy in this draft and see if anyone shakes out. unless there is someone in the mid first round that the supes really like, i would hang on to all of the picks and not trade up.

there are a lot of holes to fill, as dj pointed out.

[Hiphophead101]

We need a big and a point. Maybe Sign Elton Brand? Draft Rose?

Rose/Watson
Durant/Walker
Green/Walker
Brand/DJ White
Sene/Hibbert

Something along those lines?

[Downtown]

I don't want anyone to yell at me but I can see Presti getting orders from Bennett to do some salary trimming if he thinks that the team will be in Seattle until the lease ends because of the huge financial losses with a lame duck team. That means hanging onto expirings (Wilcox, Marshall), trading the likes of Watson and Ridnour ( probably a good idea to some degree anyways), and not offering a qualifying offer to Swift. So likely Durant, Green, Collison( although he may be the most attractive asset of the whole bunch), Petro, and Sene( who is on his cheap rookie contract) stay. Wilkens is on the bubble since even if he decides to stay is still under $3mil so he's not a cap eater.

It would also mean that the Suns pick and Seattle's own second round pick could stick, along with their top first round pick because of the low salaries.

So either way I do expect at least one of Watson and Ridnour to be moved to open up the pointguard position which we all know is needed. From there it's anyone's guess. Do they attach the Suns pick to a trade to make it more attractive knowing they have a ton of second rounders?

The more I think about it the more I think that there will be only one deal made and the rest will be status quo. So if that's the case then the head coach is where the fix needs to come from. But how many years did they sign Carlisimp for? Does Bennett want to fire him and have to keep paying him and pay for a new coach? Was there a team option on PJ? Just for money's sake even if they do fire PJ I don't see a big name, along with a big pay coach brought in.

A GM is supposed to be his own man entrusted to do his own business when hired but I can see Clays hands in roster shaping as of right now and there's a good chance Bennett has talked with Presti to hedge his bets.

[yearsago]

Depending on who we get for PG in the draft, I am pretty much fine with letting everyone go but Green, Durant, and Collison.

Thats it.

[djthesonicsfan]

I don't want anyone to yell at me but I can see Presti getting orders from Bennett to do some salary trimming if he thinks that the team will be in Seattle until the lease ends because of the huge financial losses with a lame duck team. That means hanging onto expirings (Wilcox, Marshall), trading the likes of Watson and Ridnour (probably a good idea to some degree anyways), and not offering a qualifying offer to Swift. So likely Durant, Green, Collison (although he may be the most attractive asset of the whole bunch), Petro, and Sene (who is on his cheap rookie contract) stay. Wilkens is on the bubble since even if he decides to stay is still under $3mil so he's not a cap eater. It would also mean that the Suns pick and Seattle's own second round pick could stick, along with their top first round pick because of the low salaries.

I agree with you, Downtown. But I'm not sure that's a bad thing for the team.

I agree that R Swift is in deep crap. I would love it if he could recover his pre-injury form, but the conversations I've had with those closer to the team indicate he's probably lost a step or two forever. I don't know what that means, but he was way too slow to ever play NBA basketball the last time I watched him workout & play.

Wilkins at $3M is a reasonable value, but IMO he should be traded to make way for either CJ Miles or a draft pick. We've seen his ceiling. We've also seen his confliction between playing in the best interest of the team & wanting to be his uncle. It's time for a new guy to take his spot in the rotation.

I think that unless there's a big trade three rookies make the team this year. Picks #2, #24 & #32. Hopefully a stud PG, a SG with a future & a tough, mean spirited PF to look after K Durant. Here's what I'm talking about. Watch this video of the last Cavaliers-Wizzards game. Notice D Songaila (#9) hitting L James in the face after a drive to the bucket in the beginning of the video. About at the 3:20 mark of the 1st quarter. Now watch how Z Ilgauskas gets even on D Songaila later in the video. About at the 7:40 mark in the 4th quarter with score 74-73. Nasty. Message sent. Message received. That's what the Sonics want. That's who K Durant needs. Like D Fortson. Except smart enough to get away with it. DJ White. Richard Hendrix.

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/vid ... 8&n8pe6c=2

So either way I do expect at least one of Watson and Ridnour to be moved to open up the pointguard position which we all know is needed. From there it's anyone's guess. Do they attach the Suns pick to a trade to make it more attractive knowing they have a ton of second rounders? The more I think about it the more I think that there will be only one deal made and the rest will be status quo.

Agree again. What that deal could be depends completely on who they draft with their top pick. D Rose, J Bayless. Or M Beasley. Or R Lopez. Or OJ Mayo.

So if that's the case then the head coach is where the fix needs to come from. But how many years did they sign Carlisimo for? Does Bennett want to fire him and have to keep paying him and pay for a new coach? Was there a team option on PJ? Just for money's sake even if they do fire PJ I don't see a big name, along with a big pay coach brought in.

I don't know, but I hope PJ's out. I've been reading that he doesn't have K Durant's or J Green's respect. This team needs guidance on defense big time.

[Dick Tate]

I don't know, but I hope PJ's out.

No such luck.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3377154

Makes sense. PJ was due $3M next season and since it looks like even if the Sonics win the case against the City, they still won't be able to leave without a longer trial to determine damages. No way they'd eat PJ's contract now. Another year of (cough cough) evaluations, whoopee!

[girlygirl]

We need a big and a point. Maybe Sign Elton Brand? Draft Rose?

Rose/Watson
Durant/Walker
Green/Walker
Brand/DJ White
Sene/Hibbert

Something along those lines?

Where's Collison? He was only the team's second best player for most of the season. And you want Antoine Walker? (or is that Bill Walker). DJ White will be lucky to ever play in the NBA...he's undersized and not very athletic.

Sene just had microfracture surgery and is out for next season. Hibbert will likely be a bust.

If you can get Rose or Beasley, and put them in rotation with Durant, Green, Collison, Watson and Wilcox, then you have a nice core.

[djthesonicsfan]

Maybe it's time to reflect more on the roster. There are a few important events coming up in the near term which will significantly determine how the roster is shaped for next season. First of all the lottery is coming up 20 May. Second, the increasing likelihood the Sonics will play in Seattle next season with Bennett taking a huge loss. (Not to mention the good chance he looses the team altogether.) And third is the various Sonic contract situations this next season. Based on these factors below is what I think happens with each of the current Sonics...

K Durant - focal point of next season's team
J Green - 35 minutes/game next season developing as Sonics #2 guy
N Collison - continues in his role as the steady big
J Petro - he'll try to improve upon his established claim as one of the bigs in the rotation
C Wilcox - if it's D Rose the first half of his contract year looks promising
E Watson - the 20 May lottery will determine how hard the Sonics try to trade him
L Ridnour - he'd be gone already if anybody had an expiring to spare
M Gelabale - bon voyage as there's no way this frenchy's offered another contract
D Wilkins - with the cost reduction focus & the # of draft picks he'll be encouraged to leave
M Sene - another year in purgatory
R Swift - his future in jepardy, he'll likely only get a make good, minimum salary contract
D Marshall - likely to be bought out or used in a trade
F Elson - they won't try to resign him... he'll be replaced by a rookie big
A Griffin - with a non-guaranteed contract he'll be replaced by a draft pick
Pajamas - here's to hoping Thibodeau is still available when Schultz gets the team back

That makes 10 guys the Sonics are contractually obligated for in 2008/09 if they don't pick up R Swift's contract. 11 if they do. Leaves room for 3-4 rookies. Which is a lot of rookies. Especially considering the 2 rookies from last season. Average team age is likely to be about 25 years old with an average experience of 3.6 seasons. And if useless D Marshell is let go those averages become 22 years old with 2.5 seasons NBA experience. Talk about a young team. But for some crazy reason (yes, that would be Bennett) I think Presti will not be authorized to trade for experienced & more costly veterans.

[whitedolemite]

I agree with most of your assessments DJ, but I for one would like to see Gelabale back. I don't think he'll cost very much and he produced when he got minutes. He shoots a good %, moves the ball well on offense and plays pretty good defense.

[djthesonicsfan]

The Sonics paid him almost double the money of the typical 2nd round pick deal ($800k vs $425k). Granted that's not a lot of money, by NBA standards, but I'm thinking Bennett doesn't authorize an additional dime for anything.

The other thing is we've already got at least 10 guys under firm contract. Leaves four spots as the Sonics policy has been 14 guys, not the maximum allowable 15. Maybe Bennett says that's going to be 13, the minimum allowed under CBA rules.

Anyway, we've got three "first" round picks at #2 (maybe), #24 & #32... with another at #43.

Would you prefer M Gelabale over that #43? Or maybe even that #32?

[Big_Mac79]

#32 and #43 aren't guaranteed right?
So then you just make it a competition for that spot

[whitedolemite]

Would you prefer M Gelabale over that #43? Or maybe even that #32?

Maybe, I can't say for sure since we don't know who's going to be there. But in general I don't think I want three (or more) rookies on the roster. Ideally I'd like to see the Sonics draft a PG and trade Watson or Ridnour and maybe Marshall and a pick traded for a SG or vet C. Even if the sonics stand pat, they should probably consider either trading some of those second round picks or selecting guys they can stash in the D league or overseas.

[djthesonicsfan]

BigMac, typically 2nd round draft picks do not receive guaranteed contracts. Although there are often exceptions. However, typically players signing their second contracts, like Gelabale, would get guaranteed money. Not always, but usually. But it is also very typical that marginal guys, like Gelabale, sign "make good" contracts. Don't make the team, don't make any money. So ya, your proposal would probably work.

whitedolemite, ya, more than two rookies usually means trouble. But all homerism aside, if the Sonics could win 40 games next year in the West I would be out of my mind happy. More realistically the step goal is 33-35 wins. Unless, like you propose, there's a big trade for a starting quality center. Or a stud SG & K Durant & J Green move over to SF/PF. Consider me jaded, but I just don't think Bennett going to authorize anything that increases the team's salary a dime. Anyway, assuming it's D Rose & no trades the rotation is developing like...

Starters - D Rose, K Durant, J Green, C Wilcox, N Collison
Rotation - E Watson, J Petro, D Wilkins or #24 SG, #32 big
Bench - M Sene, D Marshall, L Ridnour, #43, M Gelabale?

That's three rookies in the rotation, if D Wilkins leaves. Maybe another one or two on the bench. No room for #50 or #56 really.

[ryantony]

Did you guys not like what you saw when Gelabale was offered PG time? I thought he did a great job. Lucky for him, no teams press in the NBA- he can't dribble. BUT I dont think we need him to be the PG that drives/dishes but moreso the guy who brings the ball from the baseline to halfcourt and passes. Nothing special at all. He can (and hopefully will) be a great 2nd string PG [(on our team next year), (behind rose please)].

haha
just sign him

[djthesonicsfan]

It's an interesting point on the back up PG spot. A guy like D Rose is going to want about 38 minutes/game. Maybe not his rookie year, if it's a contending team. But whatever. That leaves 10 minutes/game for the back up PG. Bascially, with L Ridnour & E Watson, the Sonics would be paying $13M for 10 minutes/game production. Not good. So ya, what's so wrong with giving some one else with a way more reasonable contract a chance? It's not like they'd play worse defense than L Ridnour. Or pound the ball & all offensive movement into submission more than E Watson.

[whitedolemite]

As much as I like Gelabale, I don't think I'm comfortable with him being the primary backup at PG. I'm really hoping the Sonics get either Rose or Bayless (in that order) and I think both of those will bring more scoring to the PG position and that Gelabale would complement either well and take some of the ballhandling pressure off them. If the sonics get either of those guys I think it would benefit them to have an experienced PG backing them up, so I'd keep either Ridnour or Watson (depending on which one is more tradeable , their contracts are pretty similar). But I wouldn't count on either jumping in and playing 30+ minutes, let's remember that Deron Williams and Chris Paul are exceptions to the rule that PGs take several years to develop, and that they were both older when they came into the league.

[djthesonicsfan]

I'm probably not either. I'm just saying D Rose leaves only 10 min/game for the backup. Not worth $13M.

To your point, I'm just not sure who's minutes M Gelabale gets.

[djthesonicsfan]

Time to make the bold prediction. Round 1. Who is in the rotation come November?

My call...

Starters - OJ Mayo, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison
Rotation - Earl Watson, Johan Petro, Courtney Lee, DJ White