Badonkadonk wrote:OakleyDokely wrote:Kessler gets talked up a lot on this board, but his upside is basically a Poeltl type C, a good starting centre. Both are primarily rim protectors who are efficient around the basket, but have no range. Kessler probably ends up a better defender around the rim, but he isn't nearly as mobile as Poeltl who can defend on the perimeter in a pinch. Kessler even struggles at the line like Poeltl does.
Not only that but it was clear from Bobby's comments after that they liked Koloko in that last 1st / early 2nd range anyway.
You can criticize the FO for prioritizing the higher-ceiling-lower-floor guy (Kessler sure looks better right now so that criticism is fair), but the trade down into the early 2nd isn't the dramatic move that people cry about.
It doesn't matter who they liked better, even. The idea isn't that the Raptors wouldn't pass up on a better player by trading down from 20-33. They probably acknowledge that likelihood. The idea is that the range of outcomes is relatively flat, and that it's increasingly harder to get great outcomes starting around there. Teams don't predict great outcomes from players drafted there, it's why the whole "high upside" raw athlete fallacy fools many fans here (and still fools GMs). Late in the draft, that player type rarely pans out and the ones that do hit are seemingly low ceiling by comparison. There wouldn't be too many people predicting Walker Kessler was a top 5 player in that draft, and same with Koloko. And it would still be unlikely that either ended up as such (given how one position defensive Cs RARELY grade out as top 5 players in drafts these days). Hell, even after making all-rookie first team, you can go back 5 years and find that typically you're going to get 2 non-factors out of the top 5 on the all-rookie team. That's pretty significant.
So assume that at least a few of these players will be better than Koloko, but if Koloko is still a useful rotation player and they believe they acquired some value out of Young than they can walk away without feeling like they blew an amazing chance at adding the great Walker Kessler.
Fans need to think of drafting in years of clusters, how many prospects they can integrate into the rotation over a span of 3-4 years.