2024 Draft Lottery Odds

[Mister Ze]

Start Dick and play that Mugsy Bogues looking PG Nowell

[ArthurVandelay]

Blazers win

Trading Brogdon is going to hurt Raptors efforts to get to 5

[greekman]

The lottery will decide...
• If we finish 6th worst at the end of the season, we would have a 45.8% chance to keep our protected (Top-6) pick from the trade with SA.
• If we finish 5th worst, we would have a 63.9% chance of keeping the pick.
• But... Even if we finish 14th worst, we'd still have a chance (3.4%) of keeping the pick.

why do 7-9 have the same chance ?

[tecumseh18]

The lottery will decide...
• If we finish 6th worst at the end of the season, we would have a 45.8% chance to keep our protected (Top-6) pick from the trade with SA.
• If we finish 5th worst, we would have a 63.9% chance of keeping the pick.
• But... Even if we finish 14th worst, we'd still have a chance (3.4%) of keeping the pick.

why do 7-9 have the same chance ?

Yeah, that's not right. The odds of keeping the pick continuously decline, starting with 31.9% if Raps finish 7th (last).

Portland is going to trade Brogdon for sure (before he gets hurt again), and probably Grant. And get back a massive haul which will not help them win games this season. So 5th is out of the question.

We just need Desmond Bane to come back.

[douggood]

The lottery will decide...
• If we finish 6th worst at the end of the season, we would have a 45.8% chance to keep our protected (Top-6) pick from the trade with SA.
• If we finish 5th worst, we would have a 63.9% chance of keeping the pick.
• But... Even if we finish 14th worst, we'd still have a chance (3.4%) of keeping the pick.

why do 7-9 have the same chance ?

the correct odds are. (Odds without ties for picks 1-14)


1- 100%
2 - 100%
3 - 92.9%
4 - 81%
5 - 63.9%
6 - 45.8%
7 - 31.9%
8 - 26.2%
9 - 20.2%
10 - 13.9%
11 - 9.4%
12 - 7.2%
13 - 4.7%
14 - 2.4%

[Statistician MK]

why do 7-9 have the same chance ?

The odds are changing on a daily base... At the moment when that chart was created, three teams had the same score (W-L)... Nets, Grizzlies and Hawks...

Here is the updated table for today (January 30th)!

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Any good players will be off the table by the third pick, this year. If they find some.

[Statistician MK]

And updated table, valid today (Jan. 30)

[Purple+Black]

Blazers won tonight so we’re only 2 wins ahead and they’ve been trending up. Would make a huge difference for us if we finish 5th last.

[ArthurVandelay]

I'm officially a bigger supporter of the Blazers than JRoy

[Pointgod]

Blazers win

Trading Brogdon is going to hurt Raptors efforts to get to 5

We just have to trade everybody and call up some Raptors 905 guys. It’s gonna require a team effort to get worse. Coaches need to stop coaching, players need to stop trying, the equipment manager needs to stop washing jerseys….