Duffman100 wrote:brownbobcat wrote:Duffman100 wrote:Of course the average success rate matters. If you're going to make a comparative comment like "atrocious". Atrocious is a relative term that relies a comparison. That comparison has to have a field of values. The field of values would have an average.
That average then dictates if you're atrocious or not.
Expectations matter. Be honest, would you consider the 2022-23 season closer to "atrocious" or "acceptable"?
If Barnes had turned out to be exactly like the average 4th pick, would you be satisfied with that?
It all matters, I'm not debating that.
Expectations matters.
Average hit rate matters.
If the average hit rate on 2nd rounders for >1 WAR is like 1% and you're at %.8. It's not atrocious, even if you have high expectations.
I'm not saying they've been atrocious or not atrocious. But you need to have some concept of the constraints that are being referred to and understand how other teams have succeeded or not within those constrains to have an idea of what is or is not atrocious.
I think you reasonably understand we're not talking about some completely objective standard of performance.
When we call a GM crap, we don't use the "average expected value" scale.
When we complain about a disappointing treadmill team, the bar isn't 41 wins.
When we disparage a 4th pick for being a "bust", the benchmark isn't Cody Zeller.
So yes, it's been an atrocious 6-7 years in terms of finding diamonds in the rough. We'll probably never again see a run like picking up Norm/Delon/FVV/Siakam/OG in 3 successive years, luck obviously plays a role. But you need to outperform to win in the NBA and that's the standard.