RoteSchroder wrote:why are so many players withdrawing? They think they're gonna go in the lottery in 2025?
Short answer: NIL money.
Long answer: NIL now heavily incentivizes players who are not in line for guaranteed pro-money (i.e., 1st round money) to take guaranteed amateur money instead. The NBA caps 2nd round picks salaries at 50% the minimum rookie salary (approximately $559,782). Some players can make as much as that and possibly more with guaranteed in NIL endorsements. In fact, Bronny would actually make less money as a 2nd round pick this year than he did in the NCAA.
https://en.as.com/ncaa/what-ncaa-basketball-players-make-the-most-money-from-nil-endorsements-n/Bronny James, USC, $5.9 million
Bronny’s NIL value dropped from $7.2 million to $5.9 million after his cardiac arrest. However, he gained a significant following on +11.9k just 48 hours after his USC debut, resulting in a five-figure increase in his value. His partnership with Nike, recent appearance in the Fast X commercial, and collaboration with Beats by Dre also contribute to his earnings. Bronny is a highly sought-after athlete represented by Klutch Sports and currently holds the top position on the NIL rank list.
Moreover, if you noticed there are a lot of players who put their name into both the draft AND transfer portals (including Bronny). That's because a lot of the top players sell their services through the transfer portal looking for the best NIL deal with companies associated with a particular school.
https://boardroom.tv/ncaa-transfer-portal-nil/NIL opportunities can have a huge impact on where a player winds up. In the past, basketball or football players who are excelling at mid-majors might transfer to a bigger program to gain visibility and set themselves up better as a professional prospect. That still exists. But for those who aren’t guaranteed a long career in the pros, the ability to make more money now is going to be a factor.
Overall, it's just a safer bet than risking a non-guaranteed contract or worse, being undrafted and being out in the basketball wilderness having to play overseas. By returning they still get paid, maintain their college eligibility and can possibly boost their draft stock for the following year.