Would You Trade Poeltl To The Spurs For Their #8 Pick Back?

[Corson27]

I don't care how weak this draft is lol. Yes.

[Scase]

Would depends whos there on the clock

Would do it for topic

Isn't Topic the guy whose camp lied about his wingspan measurements and some injuries?

[mdenny]

This year’s free agents? Claxton and Hartenstein will certainly be around 20 million. Hell we could probably bring back JV for less than what we’re paying Poeltl now and there would be no noticeable decline in team performance.

I love JV, but he would be a noticeable downgrade from Jak at this point.

Claxton will likely be closer to 25M than 20M.

Noticeable no. What we lose defensively with Poeltl we gain offensively with JV’s ability to spread the floor offensively.

Head to head numbers:

JV - 12, 8.8, 2.1, 1.2 BPM, 1.6 VORP, 19.97
Poeltl - 11, 8.6, 2.5, 1.5 blocks, .6bpm, .9 VORP, 19.03

We’re talking similar numbers here although Jonas is older. I don’t think Claxton or Hartenstein are approaching 25+ million, just not a lot of free agent money out there to tie up in a non top 10 center. I think 20 is probably around the most, maybe 22.

None of those stats represent the most relevant difference. Jonas is amongst the worst center defenders of the PNR. Poetl is amongst the best. This is the simple explanation for anyone who has asked "why is Jonas not valued more around the league? Why doesn't he get more minutes?" It's followed him his entire career. Teams just PNR him to death and he's never been able to figure it out.

As per usual...ppl have inflated assessments of the expected outcomes. Here are the previous 8th overall selections. Upon quick scan, poetl's had a better career than more than half of these players:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/8th-overall-draft-picks-nba

THEN you account for it being an extremely weak draft.

I would lean towards making the trade proposed here...but the point is that all the belly-aching about this being the "worst trade in history" is nonsense made by ppl who exclusively percieve draft picks as potential jackpots.

It's true that every lotto pick IS, to some degree, a potential jackpot. But that is only part of the valuation in total expected outcome. (A relatively small part)

[Shakril]

The Spurs defintily would do it. But why would anyone do such a stupid trade? Since Poeltl came back to Toronto everybody is bitching about bad trades and then 2/3 are for this trade that has Thadeus Young level of Bad Trade.

[Shakril]

All this hand-wringing about trading the pick for Poeltl and 40% of posters here wouldn't trade him for the pick back or are unsure?

I personally think Peoltl is worth more than an 8th pick in this year but I'd take this trade just to put the trade behind us.

That part of this is the funniest part.

Crazy how this is the biggest mistake Masai has ever done, and a month before the draft almost half the board is unsure on whether it is actually bad

Either way.. I think I would make the trade? But ultimately would come down to if FO loved a guy at #8. IF a trade were to happen, I would bet #9 would be more realistic with MEM.

What are you two yapping about? 1/3rd of the board are delusional homers we know this.

Did you forget to take your pills?

Warned, baiting. -- Duff

[Shakril]

Yes. Youre not going to get a chance for a lottery pick for Poeltl again. I’d rather take my chance on a pick because you can sign a Poeltl tier center in free agency.

Thats the biggest myth that is portrayed since last year. If it where that easy to sign a Poeltl Caliber Center, then the Raptors would have done it. But they couldnt.

[Shakril]

Poeltl is going to be 32 in three years. He's definitely not part of this team's future.

Gasol was 34/35 when he won a ring with us.

Gasol was the fifth option on a stacked team. Gasol was also always a much better player than Poeltl. A declining Gasol is a much better player than a declining Poeltl. Hell, a declining Gasol was a better player than a prime Poeltl.

Which isnt true. Otherwise Gasol wouldnt have washed out of the League so quickly after the title.

I am at a point, where i wish that Poeltl goes to a good Team. He would florish next to a starplayer and all the haters would have to eat crow or they find another way to Blame it on Masai again, cause they always knew.

[Shakril]

Poeltl can very much so be part of our future if we improve/if scottie improves enough in the next 3 years. A lot of players we can get may not even stick around, at least we know Poeltl likes the org and wont demand some trade for pennies on the dollar.

If the ultimate goal is to surround Scottie with a team capable of competing for a championship then no, Poeltl isn't part of the future. He's not a championship calibre center.

Al Horford, Daniel Gafford, Kevon Looney have been in the NBA finals recently as starting centers. How are they championship caliber centers?

I don’t understand how anyone can possibly say that after watching these playoffs.

My thought exactly. Also as the league is trending towards dominating Bigs again, i would assume a Defensive minded Center is a good Assett for a Contender that doesnt have a dominating Big. Just look at Dallas. They managed to outplay Denver and Minnesota with Gafford and Lively as their Bigs and Poeltl is better than both of them.

[Shakril]

Oh ok, sure maybe in like a Kevon Looney role where he only plays like 20 minutes a night max and is playing off the greatest shooter of all time, a 2 time MVP and one of the 5 best point guards to ever play the game. And also a Defensive Player of the Year and one of the greatest defensive players to ever play the game who is also one of the best playmaking forwards of his generation. All Looney has to do on that team is make the right rotations, grab rebounds and stand in the dunker's spot.

The biggest issue is Poeltl's archetype, he's not a shooter, nor is he an elite rim runner, and he's not much of a lob threat. Defensively he's good, good shot blocker but he's not elite in that area. Horford is elite defensively and is an elite shooter for a big man, and one of the better passing bigs in the league. Gafford is an elite shot blocker and rim runner, and very much a lob threat.

Let's just be honest with ourselves here, when you envision your ideal starting center on this team it's not a prime Jakob Poeltl and it's certainly not an aging Poeltl. But maybe Scottie is a Kawhi/Draymond hybrid, and Gradey Dick is some sort of blend of Steph Curry and Larry Bird, in which case we can absolutely afford to start a 30 something year old Poeltl and play him 20 minutes a night.

Horford is not elite defensively Very very good defensively but even prime Horford was far from elite.

Defensively, Horford and Poeltl are similar. Both are better than Gafford. Poeltl is also above average playmaking wise albeit not quite as good as Horford.

You just highly underrate Poeltl for some reason. He has limitations for sure (shooting), but he is above average in literally every other aspect of the game. Above average finisher, passer, rebounder, defender, etc.

A guy who finished top 5 in DPOY voting was never elite defensively? Not to mention a guy who, just 2 years ago finished top 10 in DPOY voting.

Poeltl has no All Defensive teams. He doesn't put pressure on opposing defenses. I don't even get how people are trying to make these arguments. The Celtics who have been and are a championship contender wanted to trade for him to be their 3rd string center, or at best their 2nd string. So what are you guys even saying right now? Of the centers on the 4 conference finalists who is he starting over?

He would start in Dallas and Boston (porzingis only came back in the Finals),
toss up with the Pacers and yes he would not start over Gobert or Kat.

Poeltl never played for a good team as a starter. He had twice the bad luck of getting traded to a Team that was on downwards curve. Its hard get ALL NBA when your perimeter Defense is horrid and you have to play a fireman all the time. The Drop off in Defense, when Poeltl was not on the court, was so easy to see that even haters at that time were silent. But time makes people forget and their inner bias comes forth.

[Shakril]

wtf imagine saying no lol

If you understand how the NBA works, its easy to say no. Its just delusional tankers that cant admit to reality.

[deeps6x]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/9th-overall-draft-picks-nba
Interesting looking at who got drafted #9 recently.

[Pointgod]

Yes. Youre not going to get a chance for a lottery pick for Poeltl again. I’d rather take my chance on a pick because you can sign a Poeltl tier center in free agency.

Thats the biggest myth that is portrayed since last year. If it where that easy to sign a Poeltl Caliber Center, then the Raptors would have done it. But they couldnt.

Poeltl is a middle of the pack center.

[ConSarnit]

Horford is not elite defensively Very very good defensively but even prime Horford was far from elite.

Defensively, Horford and Poeltl are similar. Both are better than Gafford. Poeltl is also above average playmaking wise albeit not quite as good as Horford.

You just highly underrate Poeltl for some reason. He has limitations for sure (shooting), but he is above average in literally every other aspect of the game. Above average finisher, passer, rebounder, defender, etc.

A guy who finished top 5 in DPOY voting was never elite defensively? Not to mention a guy who, just 2 years ago finished top 10 in DPOY voting.

Poeltl has no All Defensive teams. He doesn't put pressure on opposing defenses. I don't even get how people are trying to make these arguments. The Celtics who have been and are a championship contender wanted to trade for him to be their 3rd string center, or at best their 2nd string. So what are you guys even saying right now? Of the centers on the 4 conference finalists who is he starting over?

He would start in Dallas and Boston (porzingis only came back in the Finals),
toss up with the Pacers and yes he would not start over Gobert or Kat.

Poeltl never played for a good team as a starter. He had twice the bad luck of getting traded to a Team that was on downwards curve. Its hard get ALL NBA when your perimeter Defense is horrid and you have to play a fireman all the time. The Drop off in Defense, when Poeltl was not on the court, was so easy to see that even haters at that time were silent. But time makes people forget and their inner bias comes forth.

The drop in defense without Poeltl is because his backups have been some of the worst defenders in the league.

On the Spurs, Poeltl was a very good rim protector. Not in the elite Gobert/Lopez tier, but just below that. He was around -10% fg for rim protection. He hasn't been able to do that here. Even when he was playing with Siakam/OG/FVV (and later Schroder) his rim protection numbers were more in line with top 13-15 rim protector than they were top 5-7 (like his Spurs days).

He would not start on Boston because Horford can provide the same level of defense while being a better offensive player. Same with Indiana. Turner's defense has declined from a couple years ago (specifically rim protection) but it's still in line with Poeltl and Turner provides needed floor spacing that Poeltl does not. He probably starts on Dallas but I'd argue he gets supplanted by Lively as soon as next year. Lively produced similar defensive stats to Poeltl, was just as effective as a roll-man (having Luka helps). Considering he's a rookie and likely has room to grow he's probably as good as Poeltl as early as next year (maybe better if his rim protection improves).

Poeltl has just not shown he's the same guy defensively he was in SAS and that's going to hurt a guys value when the major reason to acquire him is his defense.

[YogurtProducer]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/9th-overall-draft-picks-nba
Interesting looking at who got drafted #9 recently.

Reality is, outside the very top of the draft, it is hard to find studs.

Just as many guys drafted 8th/9th are out of the league by their mid 20s as there is rotational players.

[YogurtProducer]

A guy who finished top 5 in DPOY voting was never elite defensively? Not to mention a guy who, just 2 years ago finished top 10 in DPOY voting.

Poeltl has no All Defensive teams. He doesn't put pressure on opposing defenses. I don't even get how people are trying to make these arguments. The Celtics who have been and are a championship contender wanted to trade for him to be their 3rd string center, or at best their 2nd string. So what are you guys even saying right now? Of the centers on the 4 conference finalists who is he starting over?

He would start in Dallas and Boston (porzingis only came back in the Finals),
toss up with the Pacers and yes he would not start over Gobert or Kat.

Poeltl never played for a good team as a starter. He had twice the bad luck of getting traded to a Team that was on downwards curve. Its hard get ALL NBA when your perimeter Defense is horrid and you have to play a fireman all the time. The Drop off in Defense, when Poeltl was not on the court, was so easy to see that even haters at that time were silent. But time makes people forget and their inner bias comes forth.

The drop in defense without Poeltl is because his backups have been some of the worst defenders in the league.

On the Spurs, Poeltl was a very good rim protector. Not in the elite Gobert/Lopez tier, but just below that. He was around -10% fg for rim protection. He hasn't been able to do that here. Even when he was playing with Siakam/OG/FVV (and later Schroder) his rim protection numbers were more in line with top 13-15 rim protector than they were top 5-7 (like his Spurs days).

He would not start on Boston because Horford can provide the same level of defense while being a better offensive player. Same with Indiana. Turner's defense has declined from a couple years ago (specifically rim protection) but it's still in line with Poeltl and Turner provides needed floor spacing that Poeltl does not. He probably starts on Dallas but I'd argue he gets supplanted by Lively as soon as next year. Lively produced similar defensive stats to Poeltl, was just as effective as a roll-man (having Luka helps). Considering he's a rookie and likely has room to grow he's probably as good as Poeltl as early as next year (maybe better if his rim protection improves).

Poeltl has just not shown he's the same guy defensively he was in SAS and that's going to hurt a guys value when the major reason to acquire him is his defense.

I would think Poeltl would see those #'s go up more on a good team. It seems like when you are 27-45 it is probably difficult to motivate yourself to really give it your all on a randomTuesday in March.

Better situations make guys like Poeltl look a lot better. Derrick White is a guy who was teammates with Poeltl who looks incredible on BOS but was alright in SA. There are examples of those 5th starter / role players all the time who get a change of scenary and suddenly are much better. Gafford/Washington in DAL rather than WAS/CHA as well.

[ConSarnit]

He would start in Dallas and Boston (porzingis only came back in the Finals),
toss up with the Pacers and yes he would not start over Gobert or Kat.

Poeltl never played for a good team as a starter. He had twice the bad luck of getting traded to a Team that was on downwards curve. Its hard get ALL NBA when your perimeter Defense is horrid and you have to play a fireman all the time. The Drop off in Defense, when Poeltl was not on the court, was so easy to see that even haters at that time were silent. But time makes people forget and their inner bias comes forth.

The drop in defense without Poeltl is because his backups have been some of the worst defenders in the league.

On the Spurs, Poeltl was a very good rim protector. Not in the elite Gobert/Lopez tier, but just below that. He was around -10% fg for rim protection. He hasn't been able to do that here. Even when he was playing with Siakam/OG/FVV (and later Schroder) his rim protection numbers were more in line with top 13-15 rim protector than they were top 5-7 (like his Spurs days).

He would not start on Boston because Horford can provide the same level of defense while being a better offensive player. Same with Indiana. Turner's defense has declined from a couple years ago (specifically rim protection) but it's still in line with Poeltl and Turner provides needed floor spacing that Poeltl does not. He probably starts on Dallas but I'd argue he gets supplanted by Lively as soon as next year. Lively produced similar defensive stats to Poeltl, was just as effective as a roll-man (having Luka helps). Considering he's a rookie and likely has room to grow he's probably as good as Poeltl as early as next year (maybe better if his rim protection improves).

Poeltl has just not shown he's the same guy defensively he was in SAS and that's going to hurt a guys value when the major reason to acquire him is his defense.

I would think Poeltl would see those #'s go up more on a good team. It seems like when you are 27-45 it is probably difficult to motivate yourself to really give it your all on a randomTuesday in March.

Better situations make guys like Poeltl look a lot better. Derrick White is a guy who was teammates with Poeltl who looks incredible on BOS but was alright in SA. There are examples of those 5th starter / role players all the time who get a change of scenary and suddenly are much better. Gafford/Washington in DAL rather than WAS/CHA as well.

I would generally agree that better teammates would help but during his stint with Toronto last year he was -6.0% fg at the rim. That's an ok (not great) number playing with Siakam/OG/FVV. To start this year (again playing with competent defensive talent) he was -5.5% fg at the rim.

Even when the team has solid defensive talent (Siakam, OG, FVV, Schroder) he wasn't defending the rim at a high level. His rim protection didn't really decline once the season was a write off (-6.2% fg at the rim post Feb 1).

Rim protection is not the be all end all of defense but it usually is a good indicator off a center's defensive effectiveness. In that regard Poeltl has been "ok" since he got here. He's still solid.

[YogurtProducer]

The drop in defense without Poeltl is because his backups have been some of the worst defenders in the league.

On the Spurs, Poeltl was a very good rim protector. Not in the elite Gobert/Lopez tier, but just below that. He was around -10% fg for rim protection. He hasn't been able to do that here. Even when he was playing with Siakam/OG/FVV (and later Schroder) his rim protection numbers were more in line with top 13-15 rim protector than they were top 5-7 (like his Spurs days).

He would not start on Boston because Horford can provide the same level of defense while being a better offensive player. Same with Indiana. Turner's defense has declined from a couple years ago (specifically rim protection) but it's still in line with Poeltl and Turner provides needed floor spacing that Poeltl does not. He probably starts on Dallas but I'd argue he gets supplanted by Lively as soon as next year. Lively produced similar defensive stats to Poeltl, was just as effective as a roll-man (having Luka helps). Considering he's a rookie and likely has room to grow he's probably as good as Poeltl as early as next year (maybe better if his rim protection improves).

Poeltl has just not shown he's the same guy defensively he was in SAS and that's going to hurt a guys value when the major reason to acquire him is his defense.

I would think Poeltl would see those #'s go up more on a good team. It seems like when you are 27-45 it is probably difficult to motivate yourself to really give it your all on a randomTuesday in March.

Better situations make guys like Poeltl look a lot better. Derrick White is a guy who was teammates with Poeltl who looks incredible on BOS but was alright in SA. There are examples of those 5th starter / role players all the time who get a change of scenary and suddenly are much better. Gafford/Washington in DAL rather than WAS/CHA as well.

I would generally agree that better teammates would help but during his stint with Toronto last year he was -6.0% fg at the rim. That's an ok (not great) number playing with Siakam/OG/FVV. To start this year (again playing with competent defensive talent) he was -5.5% fg at the rim.

Even when the team has solid defensive talent (Siakam, OG, FVV, Schroder) he wasn't defending the rim at a high level. His rim protection didn't really decline once the season was a write off (-6.2% fg at the rim post Feb 1).

Rim protection is not the be all end all of defense but it usually is a good indicator off a center's defensive effectiveness. In that regard Poeltl has been "ok" since he got here. He's still solid.

Only thing I would say is that since Poeltl has been here has been a rotating door of teammates.

He was only here in 2023 for 26 games (and only played 17 games with Siakam/FVV/OG/Scottie all healthy)

This season he did not play more than 27 games with any lineup. His most played with lineups were:

Schroder/OG/Siakam/Barnes/Poeltl - 27 games 366 mins
Schroder/GTJ/OG/Siakam/Poeltl - 24 games 102 mins
Schroder/GTJ/Barnes/Siakam/Poeltl 20 games 80 mins

So those lineups were 6 guys. About 540 minutes with some 5 man-combo of those 6.

After that? The most played lineup was 10 game and 164 mins with IQ/RJ/GTJ/Barnes/Poeltl.

Every other lineup checked in less than 10 games and the most minutes was 53 with IQ/RJ/Barnes/Siakam/Poeltl (4 games).

I think it is damn near impossible for any defensive cohesion to be built when over the course of the 108 games he has been in Toronto, we have had about 4 different iterations of the team. FVV/OG/Barnes/Siakam turned into Schroder/OG/Barnes/Siakam then IQ/RJ/Barnes/SIakam then IQ/GTJ/RJ/Barnes.