PG: We may never lose again

[Shakril]

But there are so many better ways to get that talent than completly taking a nosedive and dismantle your team in all aspects. I dont want us to be the Wiz - thats horrible.

I mean, no, not really. There isn't any guaranteed strategy for acquiring a superstar. You need a lot of luck in the draft. Sometimes, you can pull off something amazing like with Kawhi or Giannis (or especially with Joker), but usually it's a top-3 pick. And in a year where there's a really strong candidate, that's the year where you want the best chance to get that pick. Now, 1st pick, 2nd, 3rd, doesn't really matter, right? Even a little after that isn't so bad because of the changes to the draft lottery, for sure.

There's some nuance between "we want to be sure we have about as good a chance to get the top pick as anyone else" (being bottom 3, or 4th at worst) and "we need to get rid of everything of value at all on the team," of course.

Dont ignore the fact, that nearly all top 3 pick leave their original team and win somewhere else.

[Parataxis]

Some people are perfectly content of what happened the last five years.

Are you one of those people?

Not answering for him, of course, but carrying on with the thought... 20-24 has not been ideal for Toronto. 2020 was fine, of course. 2021 obviously sucked a whole lot of ass. That was the equivalent of a 30-, 31-win season. 2022 was fine, we were just bleeding ability on our way down without doing much to improve, and that led into 2023, then us falling apart in 2024 (particularly from DEcember onward, even before the trades).

What had been going on for years before that was great, but we had very little clear direction or building beneath the active roster, which was frustrating and contributed to where we are now.

Yep. I can't imagine why anybody would wish another five years of that on any team that they considered themselves a fan.

[tsherkin]

Dont ignore the fact, that nearly all top 3 pick leave their original team and win somewhere else.

Let's look at that for #1 overall picks. Let's look at 45 years or so of that.

Magic (didn't leave, won with his team)
Joe Barely Cares (doesn't count)
Mark Aguirre (won with Detroit instead of Dallas, but not really good enough to matter)
James Worthy (stayed)
Ralph Sampson (injury-derailed)
Hakeem Olajuwon (won with Houston)
Patrick Ewing (never won a title but reached the Finals twice and stayed with New York until his last couple seasons)
Brad Daugherty (injury derailed, but 8 years with the Cavs)
David Robinson (won with the Spurs)
Danny Manning (not really good enough to matter)
Pervis ELlison (not good enough)
Derrick Coleman (not good enough)
Larry Johnson (5 yrs each with Charlotte and New York; injury derailed some)
Shaq (reached the Finals with Orlando, left for LA, then for Miami)
Chris Webber (bounced around, mostly settled in Sacramento, not really good enough to matter)
Glenn Robinson (not good enough)
Joe Smith (not good enough)
Allen Iverson (12 years and a Finals appearance with Philly despite their inability to assemble a good offense around him)
Tim Duncan (many titles, whole career with SAS)
Michael Olowokandi (not good enough)
Elton Brand (not good enough)
Kenyon Martin (not good enough, but did make the Finals twice with the Nets, and an AS game)
Kwame Brown (not good enough)
Yao (all with Houston, injury-derailed)
Lebron (left bc Cleveland was shockingly incompetent at building around him; came back and titled with the anyway)
Dwight (made the Finals with Orlando, then petered out from injuries and skill set limitations)
Andrew Bogut (not good enough)
Andrea Bargnani (gargantuan bust)
Greg Oden (injuries)
Derrick Rose (injuries)
Blake Griffin (8 years with the CLippers, injuries got him, not really that level of player)
John Wall (not good enough; also injuries)
Kyrie Irving (not a franchise player, but won with them alongside Lebron)
Anthony Davis (7 years where the Pelicans put nothing around him; injuries too)
Anthony Bennett (bust)
Andrew Wiggins (not good enough)
KAT (not good enough, but 9 years with Minny anyway)
Ben Simmons (injuries, other issues)
Markelle Fultz (bust)
Deandre Ayton (not good enough; was on their Finals team, though)
Zion (injuries)
Anthony Edwards (not good enough, still with Minny)
Cade Cunningham (not good enough, still with Detroit)
Paolo Banchero (not good enough, yet? still with Orlando)
Victor Wembanyama (not likely leaving San Antonio)
Zaccharie Risacher (not good enough)

Obviously, some of those most recent picks have time to leave and win elsewhere, but of them, only Paolo and Wemby really matter in the context of this conversation.


There isn't a lot of them going and winning elsewhere. If they're good enough, they typically stay.

[Shakril]

Dont ignore the fact, that nearly all top 3 pick leave their original team and win somewhere else.

Let's look at that for #1 overall picks. Let's look at 45 years or so of that.

Magic (didn't leave, won with his team)
Joe Barely Cares (doesn't count)
Mark Aguirre (won with Detroit instead of Dallas, but not really good enough to matter)
James Worthy (stayed)
Ralph Sampson (injury-derailed)
Hakeem Olajuwon (won with Houston)
Patrick Ewing (never won a title but reached the Finals twice and stayed with New York until his last couple seasons)
Brad Daugherty (injury derailed, but 8 years with the Cavs)
David Robinson (won with the Spurs)
Danny Manning (not really good enough to matter)
Pervis ELlison (not good enough)
Derrick Coleman (not good enough)
Larry Johnson (5 yrs each with Charlotte and New York; injury derailed some)
Shaq (reached the Finals with Orlando, left for LA, then for Miami)
Chris Webber (bounced around, mostly settled in Sacramento, not really good enough to matter)
Glenn Robinson (not good enough)
Joe Smith (not good enough)
Allen Iverson (12 years and a Finals appearance with Philly despite their inability to assemble a good offense around him)
Tim Duncan (many titles, whole career with SAS)
Michael Olowokandi (not good enough)
Elton Brand (not good enough)
Kenyon Martin (not good enough, but did make the Finals twice with the Nets, and an AS game)
Kwame Brown (not good enough)
Yao (all with Houston, injury-derailed)
Lebron (left bc Cleveland was shockingly incompetent at building around him; came back and titled with the anyway)
Dwight (made the Finals with Orlando, then petered out from injuries and skill set limitations)
Andrew Bogut (not good enough)
Andrea Bargnani (gargantuan bust)
Greg Oden (injuries)
Derrick Rose (injuries)
Blake Griffin (8 years with the CLippers, injuries got him, not really that level of player)
John Wall (not good enough; also injuries)
Kyrie Irving (not a franchise player, but won with them alongside Lebron)
Anthony Davis (7 years where the Pelicans put nothing around him; injuries too)
Anthony Bennett (bust)
Andrew Wiggins (not good enough)
KAT (not good enough, but 9 years with Minny anyway)
Ben Simmons (injuries, other issues)
Markelle Fultz (bust)
Deandre Ayton (not good enough; was on their Finals team, though)
Zion (injuries)
Anthony Edwards (not good enough, still with Minny)
Cade Cunningham (not good enough, still with Detroit)
Paolo Banchero (not good enough, yet? still with Orlando)
Victor Wembanyama (not likely leaving San Antonio)
Zaccharie Risacher (not good enough)

Obviously, some of those most recent picks have time to leave and win elsewhere, but of them, only Paolo and Wemby really matter in the context of this conversation.


There isn't a lot of them going and winning elsewhere. If they're good enough, they typically stay.

First things first:

Thank you for making this list, it definitly took a while. So i will try to elaborate better on the point i wanted to make.

To The List:

Most of those on the list have the tag "not good enough". That is actually the most important part. Even with #1 picks less than half are even worth beeing the #1 and even less are actually superstars. This should be actually a warning sign to all tanking fans.

To my original point:

What i wanted to highlight is that barely anyone of the Top Picks wins a title with the team they are drafted to. There are reasons for that. One of them is, that many teams are not in the position or not capable of actually creating a winning team. Just having a top pick is not the answer. Its just a part of it.

As an example take the San Antonio Spurs:

They are a gold Standard when it comes to a Franchise.

After DeRozean left, they tried to compete with Murray, White and Poeltl as their top 3. But after 1 year and a half, they decided that its better to trade those 3 for assetts and start from scratch. In a span of 18 months all 3 were gone, and all 3 have brought some value back. Mind you, they didnt know if the get a Wemby or not. So their plan was already in motion.

But during that time and after, they played hard and they played to win. You could see it in the way Popovich was coaching, you could see in the way they played. You could see that the had offensive and defensive schemes they were implementing and teaching.
Ofc they lost many games, because they have bad players and/or young players that needed to learn. But there was never an attempt to lose games, by sitting players, have weird coaching decisions, mystery injuries and so forth. They were just really bad. In my book, that is not tanking but simply beeing not good enough for anything. The mindset was straight at playing the game the right way and teaching.

In the end with some luck of the Lottery they got Wemby.

Now, does that make the Spurs already a contender even in the longterm? No.
What will make them a contender is how the culture of the spurs will influence wemby and how it will continue to teach the young ones. Now we already have the first allstar in DeFox that wants to come to SAS to play alongside Wemby. Is Wemby the main reason? Of course i is. But also is the faith in the Franchise itself. I have no doubt, that the spurs will manage it the right way, and will become a contender probably in 2 years at the latest. And yes, i agree that Wemby probably will never leave.

Now lets imagine Wemby on the Wizards. Do you have the same confidence, that it will work out the same way? Would a Fox want to go to washington - even if Wemby is there? Do you have confidence in that Franchise?


I leave that open to interpretation.

[ontnut]

I have no idea how you're supposed to out-tank that team. They should be booted out of the NBA putting that product on the floor.

Agreed it’s a bad product. But if they luck out in getting Flagg and pair him with Sarr, plus some other of their other talent, won’t be long before they’re good.

The Wizards/Bullets have not won 50 games since 1979. I have some doubts.

Arenas/Jamison/Butler and Wall/Beal/Porter both did very little in the grand scheme. I'm pretty meh on Sarr too.

[tsherkin]

Most of those on the list have the tag "not good enough". That is actually the most important part. Even with #1 picks less than half are even worth beeing the #1 and even less are actually superstars. This should be actually a warning sign to all tanking fans.

I absolutely agree that you cannot blanket tank in any season for any #1 overall pick.

After DeRozean left, they tried to compete with Murray, White and Poeltl as their top 3. But after 1 year and a half, they decided that its better to trade those 3 for assetts and start from scratch.

And anyone with eyes could see that wasn't goig to work, for sure.

But during that time and after, they played hard and they played to win. You could see it in the way Popovich was coaching, you could see in the way they played. You could see that the had offensive and defensive schemes they were implementing and teaching.

Sure, but this is the same franchise which blatantly tanked for Duncan, and they certainly weren't going hard for wins in 2023 leading into the draft where they netted Wemby.

Now lets imagine Wemby on the Wizards. Do you have the same confidence, that it will work out the same way? Would a Fox want to go to washington - even if Wemby is there? Do you have confidence in that Franchise?

Washington has not been a very competent franchise, so no, I would agree that I have less confidence in their ability to get it done.

Not sure I see the relevance here, though. We are, at least ostensibly, assuming SOME level of trust in Masai to put a decent team around real pieces, yeah? If that's the case, then what we need is core/focal talent, and then to fill supporting cast around that.

[hype_2004]

Ingram or Butler incoming?

Brandon Ingram incoming, Masai likes to pull that out of nowhere trade that could potentially take this team to the next level. This starting lineup could be lethal

PG IQ
SG Barrett
SF Scottie
PF Brandon Ingram
C Jak

Who's going the other way in the trade?

Olynik, Brown, Mogbo or Walter and 2026 1st round pick should be able to net us Ingram.

[Duffman100]

Brandon Ingram incoming, Masai likes to pull that out of nowhere trade that could potentially take this team to the next level. This starting lineup could be lethal

PG IQ
SG Barrett
SF Scottie
PF Brandon Ingram
C Jak

Who's going the other way in the trade?

Olynik, Brown, Mogbo or Walter and 2026 1st round pick should be able to net us Ingram.

That's an overpay to me.

[artsncrafts]

Dont ignore the fact, that nearly all top 3 pick leave their original team and win somewhere else.

Let's look at that for #1 overall picks. Let's look at 45 years or so of that.

Magic (didn't leave, won with his team)
Joe Barely Cares (doesn't count)
Mark Aguirre (won with Detroit instead of Dallas, but not really good enough to matter)
James Worthy (stayed)
Ralph Sampson (injury-derailed)
Hakeem Olajuwon (won with Houston)
Patrick Ewing (never won a title but reached the Finals twice and stayed with New York until his last couple seasons)
Brad Daugherty (injury derailed, but 8 years with the Cavs)
David Robinson (won with the Spurs)
Danny Manning (not really good enough to matter)
Pervis ELlison (not good enough)
Derrick Coleman (not good enough)
Larry Johnson (5 yrs each with Charlotte and New York; injury derailed some)
Shaq (reached the Finals with Orlando, left for LA, then for Miami)
Chris Webber (bounced around, mostly settled in Sacramento, not really good enough to matter)
Glenn Robinson (not good enough)
Joe Smith (not good enough)
Allen Iverson (12 years and a Finals appearance with Philly despite their inability to assemble a good offense around him)
Tim Duncan (many titles, whole career with SAS)
Michael Olowokandi (not good enough)
Elton Brand (not good enough)
Kenyon Martin (not good enough, but did make the Finals twice with the Nets, and an AS game)
Kwame Brown (not good enough)
Yao (all with Houston, injury-derailed)
Lebron (left bc Cleveland was shockingly incompetent at building around him; came back and titled with the anyway)
Dwight (made the Finals with Orlando, then petered out from injuries and skill set limitations)
Andrew Bogut (not good enough)
Andrea Bargnani (gargantuan bust)
Greg Oden (injuries)
Derrick Rose (injuries)
Blake Griffin (8 years with the CLippers, injuries got him, not really that level of player)
John Wall (not good enough; also injuries)
Kyrie Irving (not a franchise player, but won with them alongside Lebron)
Anthony Davis (7 years where the Pelicans put nothing around him; injuries too)
Anthony Bennett (bust)
Andrew Wiggins (not good enough)
KAT (not good enough, but 9 years with Minny anyway)
Ben Simmons (injuries, other issues)
Markelle Fultz (bust)
Deandre Ayton (not good enough; was on their Finals team, though)
Zion (injuries)
Anthony Edwards (not good enough, still with Minny)
Cade Cunningham (not good enough, still with Detroit)
Paolo Banchero (not good enough, yet? still with Orlando)
Victor Wembanyama (not likely leaving San Antonio)
Zaccharie Risacher (not good enough)

Obviously, some of those most recent picks have time to leave and win elsewhere, but of them, only Paolo and Wemby really matter in the context of this conversation.


There isn't a lot of them going and winning elsewhere. If they're good enough, they typically stay.

I agree with you but why is Paolo ahead of Anthony Edwards on the "not good enough" scale?

[tsherkin]

I agree with you but why is Paolo ahead of Anthony Edwards on the "not good enough" scale?

He isn't. He's got a long way to go yet.

[Hottie McShotty]

Call me crazy but I like Bruce Brown off the bench, and I don't want to see him get traded.

He's been playing well lately and he's not that old. Question is would he even re-sign with the Raptors

I think he said he likes it here and that he wouldn't mind staying. Either way, he's a good player to have on your team.

[ahollz]

Are you one of those people?

Not answering for him, of course, but carrying on with the thought... 20-24 has not been ideal for Toronto. 2020 was fine, of course. 2021 obviously sucked a whole lot of ass. That was the equivalent of a 30-, 31-win season. 2022 was fine, we were just bleeding ability on our way down without doing much to improve, and that led into 2023, then us falling apart in 2024 (particularly from DEcember onward, even before the trades).

What had been going on for years before that was great, but we had very little clear direction or building beneath the active roster, which was frustrating and contributed to where we are now.

Yep. I can't imagine why anybody would wish another five years of that on any team that they considered themselves a fan.

I'm sorry you couldn't see the contextual clues to see if I was being sincere or not. Masai is just kicking the can down the road until he doesn't renew or take an NGO job.

[everdiso]

Dont ignore the fact, that nearly all top 3 pick leave their original team and win somewhere else.

Let's look at that for #1 overall picks. Let's look at 45 years or so of that.

Magic (didn't leave, won with his team)
Joe Barely Cares (doesn't count)
Mark Aguirre (won with Detroit instead of Dallas, but not really good enough to matter)
James Worthy (stayed)
Ralph Sampson (injury-derailed)
Hakeem Olajuwon (won with Houston)
Patrick Ewing (never won a title but reached the Finals twice and stayed with New York until his last couple seasons)
Brad Daugherty (injury derailed, but 8 years with the Cavs)
David Robinson (won with the Spurs)
Danny Manning (not really good enough to matter)
Pervis ELlison (not good enough)
Derrick Coleman (not good enough)
Larry Johnson (5 yrs each with Charlotte and New York; injury derailed some)
Shaq (reached the Finals with Orlando, left for LA, then for Miami)
Chris Webber (bounced around, mostly settled in Sacramento, not really good enough to matter)
Glenn Robinson (not good enough)
Joe Smith (not good enough)
Allen Iverson (12 years and a Finals appearance with Philly despite their inability to assemble a good offense around him)
Tim Duncan (many titles, whole career with SAS)
Michael Olowokandi (not good enough)
Elton Brand (not good enough)
Kenyon Martin (not good enough, but did make the Finals twice with the Nets, and an AS game)
Kwame Brown (not good enough)
Yao (all with Houston, injury-derailed)
Lebron (left bc Cleveland was shockingly incompetent at building around him; came back and titled with the anyway)
Dwight (made the Finals with Orlando, then petered out from injuries and skill set limitations)
Andrew Bogut (not good enough)
Andrea Bargnani (gargantuan bust)
Greg Oden (injuries)
Derrick Rose (injuries)
Blake Griffin (8 years with the CLippers, injuries got him, not really that level of player)
John Wall (not good enough; also injuries)
Kyrie Irving (not a franchise player, but won with them alongside Lebron)
Anthony Davis (7 years where the Pelicans put nothing around him; injuries too)
Anthony Bennett (bust)
Andrew Wiggins (not good enough)
KAT (not good enough, but 9 years with Minny anyway)
Ben Simmons (injuries, other issues)
Markelle Fultz (bust)
Deandre Ayton (not good enough; was on their Finals team, though)
Zion (injuries)
Anthony Edwards (not good enough, still with Minny)
Cade Cunningham (not good enough, still with Detroit)
Paolo Banchero (not good enough, yet? still with Orlando)
Victor Wembanyama (not likely leaving San Antonio)
Zaccharie Risacher (not good enough)

Obviously, some of those most recent picks have time to leave and win elsewhere, but of them, only Paolo and Wemby really matter in the context of this conversation.


There isn't a lot of them going and winning elsewhere. If they're good enough, they typically stay.

First things first:

Thank you for making this list, it definitly took a while. So i will try to elaborate better on the point i wanted to make.

To The List:

Most of those on the list have the tag "not good enough". That is actually the most important part. Even with #1 picks less than half are even worth beeing the #1 and even less are actually superstars. This should be actually a warning sign to all tanking fans.

To my original point:

What i wanted to highlight is that barely anyone of the Top Picks wins a title with the team they are drafted to. There are reasons for that. One of them is, that many teams are not in the position or not capable of actually creating a winning team. Just having a top pick is not the answer. Its just a part of it.

As an example take the San Antonio Spurs:

They are a gold Standard when it comes to a Franchise.

After DeRozean left, they tried to compete with Murray, White and Poeltl as their top 3. But after 1 year and a half, they decided that its better to trade those 3 for assetts and start from scratch. In a span of 18 months all 3 were gone, and all 3 have brought some value back. Mind you, they didnt know if the get a Wemby or not. So their plan was already in motion.

But during that time and after, they played hard and they played to win. You could see it in the way Popovich was coaching, you could see in the way they played. You could see that the had offensive and defensive schemes they were implementing and teaching.
Ofc they lost many games, because they have bad players and/or young players that needed to learn. But there was never an attempt to lose games, by sitting players, have weird coaching decisions, mystery injuries and so forth. They were just really bad. In my book, that is not tanking but simply beeing not good enough for anything. The mindset was straight at playing the game the right way and teaching.

In the end with some luck of the Lottery they got Wemby.

Now, does that make the Spurs already a contender even in the longterm? No.
What will make them a contender is how the culture of the spurs will influence wemby and how it will continue to teach the young ones. Now we already have the first allstar in DeFox that wants to come to SAS to play alongside Wemby. Is Wemby the main reason? Of course i is. But also is the faith in the Franchise itself. I have no doubt, that the spurs will manage it the right way, and will become a contender probably in 2 years at the latest. And yes, i agree that Wemby probably will never leave.

Now lets imagine Wemby on the Wizards. Do you have the same confidence, that it will work out the same way? Would a Fox want to go to washington - even if Wemby is there? Do you have confidence in that Franchise?


I leave that open to interpretation.

Yeah it's funny that Tankers don't realize that they're always the first ones to hate on the newest high draft picks and proclaim them not championship material.

A permament cycle of misery they don't know how to get off.

[Parataxis]

Not answering for him, of course, but carrying on with the thought... 20-24 has not been ideal for Toronto. 2020 was fine, of course. 2021 obviously sucked a whole lot of ass. That was the equivalent of a 30-, 31-win season. 2022 was fine, we were just bleeding ability on our way down without doing much to improve, and that led into 2023, then us falling apart in 2024 (particularly from DEcember onward, even before the trades).

What had been going on for years before that was great, but we had very little clear direction or building beneath the active roster, which was frustrating and contributed to where we are now.

Yep. I can't imagine why anybody would wish another five years of that on any team that they considered themselves a fan.

I'm sorry you couldn't see the contextual clues to see if I was being sincere or not. Masai is just kicking the can down the road until he doesn't renew or take an NGO job.

So, again, if you're not one of those people, then why are you wishing a half-dozen years of frustration on a team that you claim to support?

[ahollz]

Yep. I can't imagine why anybody would wish another five years of that on any team that they considered themselves a fan.

I'm sorry you couldn't see the contextual clues to see if I was being sincere or not. Masai is just kicking the can down the road until he doesn't renew or take an NGO job.

So, again, if you're not one of those people, then why are you wishing a half-dozen years of frustration on a team that you claim to support?

I'm sorry you don't understand jokes. I think we need another 5 years added to this timeline. Let's go 2035! Let's trade more lightly protective lottery picks for play-in spots. Every position could use some Poetl power. Maybe he dangles next year first round pick after we draft Mauluch this summer and consider this retool done.