The NBA Lottery System

[CPT]

Has anyone suggested flat odds for every non-playoff team?

I don't think there's much incentive for teams on the fringe of play-in to lose on purpose for a lottery like that.

This is what I was going to suggest. It’s simple and solves a lot of the problems without creating too many more. I may even go as far as doing all picks this way, or at least the whole lottery.

I like YP’s idea of the entire draft being a lotto with limits on how much you can move up as well.

Any kind of tournament or alternate method of calculating the standings/odds is likely too complicated, doesn’t do what you want, or both.

I know tanking is real, but I kind of feel like the perception is worse than the reality. Every sport has bad teams, and those teams occasionally play each other without the collective fanbase losing their minds about how bad it is.

[Jtoneller1]

Has anyone suggested flat odds for every non-playoff team?

I don't think there's much incentive for teams on the fringe of play-in to lose on purpose for a lottery like that.

This is the simplest fix for sure. Just pull names out of a hat basically. Like you said, the odds are low/random enough that those fringe play-in teams would prioritize winning.

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[wegotthabeet]

Has anyone suggested flat odds for every non-playoff team?

I don't think there's much incentive for teams on the fringe of play-in to lose on purpose for a lottery like that.

This is the simplest fix for sure. Just pull names out of a hat basically. Like you said, the odds are low/random enough that those fringe play-in teams would prioritize winning.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using RealGM mobile app

That was the original lottery system. Before that they used to flip a coin between the two bottom teams then go reverse standings.

[wegotthabeet]

The “Gold Plan” will assign the first pick in the 2024 PWHL Draft to the non-playoff team that accrues the most points following its elimination from playoff contention – assuring that the teams’ remaining games will be competitively meaningful.

What about this idea?

The worst your team is the earlier you’re eliminated. The earlier you’re eliminated, the more time you have to accumulate post elimination wins. Seems like a pretty good idea to me because it encourages competition, but also gives the worst teams some advantages, in this case time.

[Quattro]

Oh, just get better players. Why didn't I think of that. Brilliant idea!

Ujiri did it.

Through drafting and trades. And let's not forget we drafted Barnes because we tanked that season. We were able to trade a former lottery pick in DeMar for Kawhi. And who knows, maybe we'll get lucky and get Flagg? If that happens, we'll all forget about this season's tank. If we fall in the draft, we'll all lament these late season wins.

I think having to rely on winning the lottery is punishment enough since teams can drop in the draft, and the players often don't pan out.

No system is perfect or without downsides. It's hard to argue that the system in place now isn't a disaster however. In my view its time for drastic change. People cheering for their team to lose and getting angry when they win should absolutely NOT be what any sports league wants to see.

[Dennis 37]

There are lots of ideas out there. I remember one crazy one that Bill Simmons mused about many years ago where the moment a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, wins start being counted, and the lottery is awarded based upon wins or win percentage from that point on. In other words, if a team wins 10 more games after being eliminated, they would get a higher draft pick than a team who wins only twice after being eliminated. A few issues with this, obviously, but it would definitely incentivize teams not to give up on a season.

Anyway, all that is tldr. Just wanted to open the discussion.

Following Bill Simmons suggestion.

Any win against a team ahead of you in the standings, following the trade deadline, would improve your lottery odds. Any loss, against a team below you in the standings, would worsen your lottery odds.

So not only are wins profitable, losses hurt.

[Tor_Raps]

Equal odds for all non playoff teams , including teams who get eliminated from the play-in.

[Pointgod]

Equal odds for all non playoff teams is the worst idea. You think tanking is bad now, just wait until the 8th seed has a chance to land Wemby. There are better ideas to reform the lottery.

[TravisScott55]

I doubt it changes