Development Watch - Poeltl's Three Point Shot

[gp2015]

A poor three throw shooter will suddenly develop a decent 3 point shot?

Yeah right.

He doesn't even have a semblance of a mid range game.

I would like to see the number of players who are below 60% career free throw shooters and can shoot 3 pointers.

RJ Barrett pretty much fits this criteria. Non existent mid range game and in 84 games as a Raptor - he's shooting 37% from three and 64% from the FT line.

RJ has no midrange game but he's still a 70% career free throw shooter. Not close to 60% and definitely not close to 55% career like Jak.

RJ has been up and down but you wouldn't say he was horrible shooter at any point.

[tsherkin]

Wiggins doesn't fit the criteria. He is a career 70%+ free throw shooter. Never shot below 60% in any season.

Wallace? Not sure where you're getting that but he never shot under 60% free throws for any season in his entire career. He was also a career 70%+ ft shooter.

Yeah, I missed the "under 60% career" criteria, to be honest, and was just looking at borderline guys and bigs who developed the shot mostly, aside from Bowen. With Wiggins, it was the 4 seasons under 70% at the line. Same with SHeed, though obviously he firmed up after his first few seasons.

So basically that's one player and a couple of seasons from Wiggins if you're being generous. Both Wallace and Wiggins had/have a midrange game. So basically, the chances are close to zero, like I said.

Wiggins does not really have a mid-range game; he has sucked ass in the middle outside of this season, and this season it's based on low volume and low proportionate representation of those shots. He's not even good at the rim.

[hype_2004]

Darko sees Kessler jacking 3's in Utah and decide to borrow from their book on how to tank despite playing a highly effective starting center

Speaking of Utah, Raptors drop the ball by not drafting Filipowski a high IQ C that can pass and space the floor. The Mogbo pick was a waste and was done to appease Barnes. You can find 10+ athletic long hustle guys in every draft but you would be hard pressed to find a PF/C that can hit the three near 40% clip like Filipowski.

[ConSarnit]

You guys don't remember when boucher developed a 3 point shot?

Now that's the thing he does

Why are you talking about? Boucher took more 3’s in his first 10 NBA games than Poeltl has taken his entire career.

Boucher took 3.2 3pa per game in college and hit them at 34%. He’s also a career 78% ft shooter. Boucher and Poeltl are not even close to comparable.

[Snappycoocoo]

You guys don't remember when boucher developed a 3 point shot?

Now that's the thing he does

Why are you talking about? Boucher took more 3’s in his first 10 NBA games than Poeltl has taken his entire career.

Boucher took 3.2 3pa per game in college and hit them at 34%. He’s also a career 78% ft shooter. Boucher and Poeltl are not even close to comparable.

I must be thinking of someone else then

[faitaccompli]

I am skeptic that it will be actually something that is beeing used when it counts.

My reasons are the following:

Why just now? This whole season is about developing. Giving Yak one 3Point shot a game to develop this skill could have been done from the start.

Also i dont think we should overreact to 1 shot and some comments. Honestly, last game i would have given Yak the last second shot if it really was about developing his shot. It was the perfect opportunity: game on the line, bad shooter (for tankies) and if he had happen to hit the shot it would have been great to witness. But instead they went with whatever they tried to do (i do not think robinson was the one that was supposed to shot)

On top of that, IF Yak actually where to develop this shot, it is not unreasonable think that we should actually make him the main cog in the offense.

I am simply happy, that his FT % this year is really good, for his standards.

Overall, temp the expectations until we see it on the court in a reasonable way. Last time, it was simply drawn up for him and unexpected by the opponent. But i liked to see it, when they actually try to guard him and then see if he can hit the 3.

The reaction to it has been relatively fair so far. It's definitely worth tracking.

Just because that was the first time he took the shot in game this year doesn't mean he hasn't been working on it in practice.

“Jak has been working on that shot quite a bit, and it’s something that we’re seeing in the making. He’s making those shots in practice, and we just wanted to take a look at it. So I’m really glad that he made that shot. I probably need to run more of those plays for him.” -Darko Rajaković

https://packaged-media.redd.it/dz4urtf9t6pe1/pb/m2-res_720p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1742508000&s=8f9377c60ffeee90c157b271e882532abcd78939

I think there are ~10 levels to this:

Level 1. Random heave/totally unexpected by both opponent and several teamates, statistically irrelevant, ignored by everyone.

Level 2. Unserious tankathon gimmick. Unexpected by opponent. ignored by opponent.

Level 3. >2 attempts for rest of 2025 season; wide open threes; unexpected by opponent. ignored by opponent.

Level 4. >2 attempts per game, wide open threes in preseason - still unexpected. still ignored

Level 5. 2-3 attempts per game, wide open threes in preseason - still unexpected.still ignored; not moving the defense.

Level 6. 2-3 attempts per game, wide open threes in blowouts in regular season - still unexpected; percentage of makes vs misses is below 30%, no longer ignored but not moving the defense.

Level 7. 3-4 attempts per game, wide open threes - expected by opponent; percentage of makes vs misses is around 35%, no longer ignored but not moving the defense.

Level 8. 3-4 attempts per game, Wide open threes - expected by opponent. volumne is passable / percentage of makes vs misses is around 35%, no longer ignored but still not moving the defense.

Level 9. 3-4 attempts per game, open threes - preferable by opponent to 3 pointer by a better shooter. no longer ignored but still not moving the defense.

Level 10. 4-5 attempts per game, open threes - preferable by opponent to 3 pointer by a better shooter. lightly moving but not panicking the defense.

Right now we seem to be at level 2. It'll be interesting to see where this is in a year.