1. Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | Duke
Flagg is going No. 1 to the Dallas Mavericks. He was the national player of the year in college basketball this season at just 18 after reclassifying into the 2024 recruiting class. He posted ridiculous numbers, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game, but it got even better after January. In his final 25 games, including the Georgia Tech game in which he rolled an ankle after 15 minutes in the ACC tournament, Flagg posted 20.5 points, seven rebounds and 4.6 assists on 51.1 percent shooting from the field, 45.1 percent from 3 and 88 percent from the line. Duke went 23-2 in that run before falling in the Final Four to Houston in staggering fashion (despite Flagg’s 27, seven and four with two steals and three blocks in that game).
Flagg isn’t quite at the Victor Wembanyama level of prospect over the last 20 years, but he belongs in the Anthony Davis tier. And now, he’ll get to play with Davis. Barring injury, Flagg is about as can’t-miss as it gets because of his skill level, athleticism, shot-creation ability and mentality. He is about as competitive as you’ll find on the court and will bring a serious work ethic into whatever situation he arrives. He wants to be great. There’s no red flag in terms of entitlement here.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Rutgers
Harper remains the most likely option at No. 2 for the Spurs as they continue to build their core around Wembanyama. Talent is talent, and Harper is the best player on the board here. Still, the fit isn’t wildly clean in San Antonio.
The Spurs acquired De’Aaron Fox at the trade deadline, and Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle plays a similar role to Harper as a combo guard. I think Harper is a better prospect than Castle, and thus, Castle’s presence shouldn’t stop you from selecting him. But the team will have some work to do to make all these players work.
Harper’s 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and four assists per game while shooting 48 percent from the field as a freshman guard put him in rarefied air, as few players have gotten that close to such marks in their first year. He also creates rim pressure at an elite level, with the ability to get into the paint and finish at the basket with his impressive array of gathers and touch finishes as a 6-6 lead guard.
It feels like the only way that this selection would be on the table in a trade is if Giannis Antetokounmpo became available in a deal.
3. PROJECTED TRADE: Charlotte Hornets
VJ Edgecombe | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
(Hornets trade No. 4 and No. 32 to Philadelphia 76ers for No. 3 and Andre Drummond)
No deal is close, and I’m sure the Sixers will continue to field offers until they get exactly what they want. But the most logical move is to trade down. At No. 3, the Sixers are atop a talent tier led by Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel and Ace Bailey. Some evaluators around the league would also throw Khaman Maluach and Jeremiah Fears into this group, and others would place prospects like Edgecombe and Bailey ahead and into their own mini-tier. For the Sixers, none of these prospects makes perfect sense.
With a couple of early second-round picks and salary flexibility to help the Sixers, the Hornets have the assets to jump one spot. Edgecombe makes the most sense with Charlotte’s team build in between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in the backcourt. He’s tough and competitive, cares about winning and has been highly impressive in the pre-draft process. The Hornets need a better defensive infrastructure surrounding their franchise centerpieces, and Edgecombe is a terrific defensive player with elite athleticism. He’d be a running mate in transition for Ball early in his career while taking on the toughest perimeter defensive assignments. He also has a lot of potential offensively because of his special athleticism, mixed with his ability to hit catch-and-shoot jumpers. But he needs to continue working on his ball skills, particularly with his left hand and the tightness of his handle. Still, he averaged 15 points, nearly six rebounds and three assists as a freshman and has a long track record of knocking down shots off the catch.
If the Hornets think he’s the guy, paying one of your two second-round selections while taking on Drummond’s $5 million this year is worth trading up. The Sixers get financial flexibility by taking the Drummond deal off their books and would have an additional asset at the top of the second round. Maybe they could move into the latter portion of the first round? Sell it for future picks? They’d have options.
4. PROJECTED TRADE: WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Ace Bailey | 6-8 wing/forward | 18 years old | Rutgers
(Wizards trade No. 6 and No. 18 to Sixers for No. 4 and Eric Gordon)
Again, I project the Sixers trade down. Why would the Wizards jump the Utah Jazz for No. 6? It’s hard to figure out what the Jazz will do at No. 5. With a new key decision-maker in Austin Ainge, league sources want to see how he operates after nearly 15 years in the Boston Celtics’ front office. So if Washington wants a certain player, it will probably need to jump Utah (and any other team that would be talking trade with Philadelphia in this instance). The price point here is No. 18 and taking the Gordon deal into the trade exception that the Wizards created in the Johnny Davis deal at the deadline. It’s not small, but it’s a worthwhile move if they love someone, and the Wizards have several young players on rookie-scale deals on the roster already in Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, AJ Johnson and Kyshawn George.
Evaluations from scouts on Bailey remain wide, but no one doubts his athleticism and tools as a shot-maker. The ceiling for Bailey is that he can be the second-best player in the class if all breaks right. His pull-up game is highly impressive for a player his age, and he’s a good catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter already, even if it’s not his natural inclination. I like several of those Wizards players listed above, but only Carrington and potentially Johnson project as shot creators. Bailey would give them something on the wing that they don’t have, as much as I love Coulibaly’s game.
Bailey will be a project. He averaged 17.6 points and seven rebounds while shooting 46 percent from the field and 34 percent from 3. But his style of play did not seem conducive to winning basketball. He settles for a lot of long jumpers because he struggles to get to the rim (he has a high handle and high center of gravity that gets knocked off its line too easily). Defensively, he wasn’t always engaged in help situations unless he saw an opportunity to go get the basketball.
But Rutgers was a catastrophe when Bailey wasn’t on the court. Even in Big Ten play, the Scarlet Knights lost Bailey’s minutes by only three points per 100 possessions. When he was off the court, they lost those minutes by 23 points per 100, per CBB Analytics. Bailey is enormous, he’s long, he is a real shooter, and he showed some defensive moments that were very positive in switch situations.
5. Utah Jazz
Tre Johnson | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Texas
If I were running the Jazz, I’d probably sit back and take the guy I liked most out of Bailey, Johnson and Kon Knueppel who falls to them. Here, Johnson makes a ton of sense. He’s a 6-5 wing who can really shoot the ball off movement, and he’d be a perfect fit within Will Hardy’s scheme. Johnson averaged 19.9 points and looked like a serious potential scoring threat in the NBA at Texas.
Realistically, the Jazz just need to take an upside swing. Beyond Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, they don’t have another building block that they can feel completely confident in. Keyonte George looks like a backup long-term because of his inefficiency and defense, and while Isaiah Collier had an excellent season passing the ball, he still doesn’t have a great way to score effectively. Recent lottery picks Cody Williams and Taylor Hendricks haven’t worked out yet (Hendricks due to injury, Williams due to his frame not being ready for the NBA). Kyle Filipowski is my favorite of their draft picks last year, but he might end up profiling best as a third big instead of a starter. If I were Ainge, I’d find the best swing I could take and go for it.
6. PROJECTED TRADE: Philadelphia 76ers
Kon Knueppel | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Duke
(The Sixers trade No. 3 and Andre Drummond to the Hornets for No. 4 and No. 33; the Sixers then trade No. 4 and Eric Gordon to the Wizards for No. 6 and No. 18)
The Sixers wheel and deal with two trades here. Philly is both bringing in top prospects for workouts and seeing what’s available on the market. The Sixers are looking to contend now, but league sources say they wish to bridge the gap between eras of players on their roster and potentially provide cheaper production. If someone comes in and blows their doors off, maybe they keep the pick. If not, they have options.
With these two trades, they end up with No. 6, No. 18, No. 33 and get off the Drummond and Gordon deals as they look to re-sign Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele. It’s not a massive haul, but it’s extremely helpful. And at No. 6, they get the guy I’d have at the top of their board at No. 3 in Knueppel, a bigger shooter who is competitive and tough. He has a case as the best shooter in the class along with Johnson, and his overall game was more impactful this season. He also has more ball skills than you think, especially in ball screens, and was better defensively than he got credit for being. He gives them more roster flexibility and versatility off the bench, as I think he can play the two and three fairly easily.
The difference between No. 3 and No. 6 financially next season is about $3 million, meaning the Sixers would save about $11.5 million between this and shedding the Drummond and Gordon deals. The No. 18 pick has about a $3 million salary for next year, but that would also be another cheap roster spot for the next four years or another asset in their cache. This feels like a win for everyone, with two rebuilding teams getting prospects that they want and the Sixers getting more assets and flexibility as they look to retool a potential contender on the fly.
7. New Orleans Pelicans
Jeremiah Fears | 6-3 guard | 18 years old | Oklahoma
The Pelicans have already made substantive changes to their organization, firing David Griffin and hiring Joe Dumars to run basketball operations. Several teams are tracking what the Pelicans are doing closely, wondering how open they are for business as they look to retool around Zion Williamson.
With Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones on the roster, the team is set on the wing. They also just drafted an All-Rookie big in Yves Missi a season ago. Where they could use an upside swing is in the backcourt, as CJ McCollum only has one year left on his deal, and Dejounte Murray is recovering from a torn Achilles. Fears, at the very least, represents that swing. He’s a polarizing player for evaluators around the league, because you either believe in the upside of him as a primary ballhandler and think he can be a true top-tier option, or you think he profiles more as a backup. Some scouts and executives I’ve talked to think he’s a top-five upside bet in this draft because of his handle and creativity. Others see him more as a bet to take in the late teens or even the 20s. He creates advantages in ball screens and is dynamic in how he gets to his spots. But I question his finishing ability, his shooting (after hitting 27 percent from 3 this year), and his total lack of defensive game. Still, if you believe in your developmental staff in those areas, there is undeniably a lot to work with.
8. Brooklyn Nets
Kasparas Jakučionis | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Illinois
Jakučionis is big and can play both on and off the ball, coming off a terrific freshman season in which he averaged 15 points, six rebounds and five assists. His vision is sublime, and he fits the current ecosystem of the NBA well with his dribble, pass and shoot traits. Still, he doesn’t have a ton of athletic explosiveness, and his defensive game was not always on point this year. His range is seen as somewhere from the middle to the end of the lottery.
What I like about Jakučionis for the Nets is the flexibility he provides. They certainly need a lead guard and a playmaker of the future. If they choose to keep Cam Thomas, I like Jakučionis’ ability to play off him with his size and passing ability mixed with Thomas’ scoring firepower. However, since the Nets have four first-round picks, his versatility matters. Jakučionis playing on the ball means that they don’t have to prioritize getting a point guard. However, his ability to also shift off the ball means they would then have the flexibility later to take a lead guard if one were the best player available.
9. Toronto Raptors
Khaman Maluach | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Duke
With Jakob Poeltl potentially hitting free agency next year, the Raptors could use a long-term answer at center. Many people around the league have connected Maluach here because of his time at the NBA Academy in Africa and Masai Ujiri’s efforts to promote basketball within the region.
Maluach isn’t a monster shot-blocker, but he understands how big he is and is excellent at using his size to cut off angles and contest on the interior. Offensively, there are more questions, largely about his hands and overall feel for the game. He started playing basketball late and is still working on how to see the floor around him. He also doesn’t always come down with contested rebounds, as was starkly seen in Duke’s Final Four game against Houston, when he played 20 minutes and had zero rebounds. Still, someone will take the bet on a player who’s 7-1 with long arms and movement skills.
10. Houston Rockets (via PHX)
Collin Murray-Boyles | 6-7 wing/forward | 20 years old | South Carolina
The Rockets are loaded across each position. They have a team option on veteran point guard Fred VanVleet and drafted their point guard of the future in Reed Sheppard at No. 3 last year; the organization is still extremely high on Sheppard despite his lack of playing time this year. They have their center of the future in Alperen Şengün. I think they will just take the best player available, and at this spot, that’s Murray-Boyles. He’s a tremendous defender and would fit in perfectly with how Ime Udoka wants to play. He also passes well and has serious toughness to play with many of their players. He processes the game at an elite level and is the kind of prospect the Rockets have valued in the past.
Other teams across the league are under the impression that this pick could be moved in the right circumstances, especially in a deal for a star in which Houston consolidates talent.
11. Portland Trail Blazers
Carter Bryant | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Arizona
Bryant didn’t start many games this year at Arizona, but he was a monster defensive player when he was on the court, showcasing serious playmaking chops as well as great on-ball play. He also knocks down a solid percentage of his 3s. Bryant is one of the guys in this class who has a ton of juice when you talk to front offices, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him land in the top 10. I’d park his range in the No. 7 to No. 16 area.
The Blazers want flexible, versatile players under this front office led by Joe Cronin. Think about Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and others. They’ve also built a potential style of play on the defensive end led by Camara, an All-Defense selection this season, Avdija and last year’s first-round selection on the interior in Donovan Clingan. Bryant would give them even more optionality across the perimeter as they work to figure out what they have in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as creators.
12. Chicago Bulls
Derik Queen | 6-9 big | 20 years old |Maryland
Bulls president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas was in Denver when the team drafted Nikola Jokić, and one of his first moves as the lead decision-maker in Chicago was to trade a significant package of assets for Nikola Vučević. He is near the end of his career and only has one year left on his contract.
Queen would be a sharp replacement for Vučević. The read coming from sources on the Bulls is that they want to continue to build off the style of play they put forth this season. Chicago wants to play uptempo with a high-energy style under Billy Donovan that involves all five players on the court being able to dribble, pass and shoot. The Maryland big man would fit that quite well, as he’s at his best in transition in grab-and-go situations off the glass. He’d have no issues playing at the kind of speed that the Bulls want and would thrive in such an offense. Defensively, there would be concerns, and the Bulls should not be immune to that. But if he falls, it’s hard to find a better offensive fit for them.