RJ Barrett is Criminally Underrated

[DreamTeam09]

If this is your mindstate then how are you arguing PPP stats & refuting context ?

Because there is a limit to what the context will change. We're hopeful it'll be good, but it's not going to take him from like top 170 into any kind of real level of dangerous competence.

We are going to be a good team this year and everyone looks better in a better situation. I'm not going to get into a back n forth about RJ again, the season is a few months away.

[tsherkin]

We are going to be a good team this year and everyone looks better in a better situation. I'm not going to get into a back n forth about RJ again, the season is a few months away.

I expect and hope that he will look better this season in the new environment, yes. I'm just moderate on the degree to which that will be true given RJ's skillset.

[Basketball_Jones]

I like him as a fallback option in case BI/Quick/Scottie are locked down and can’t score. Which will happen a lot imo. Kind of like what Norm was for us, though he came off the bench a ton too so there’s that to think about.

[nikster]

My original point was how talent in general will improve it. Scottie doesnt have to be direftly involved in the pand R (tho he can be the occasional roll man), but he draws attention and can capitalize on 4 on 3 situations that a pick and roll might create, either himself or with the secondary passer, get offensive rebounds etc.. all those things go into ppp.

We were talking about RJ's on/off with Scottie.

Meantime, separate from that, RJ's own poor scoring is the largest problem here. His finishing ability, his FT shooting, his inability to pull up effectively... these are all much more consequential issues than his teammates in that set.

I used Scottie as a proxie for playing with talent cause it's not like RJ played with any other real talent most of last year. Iq missed most of the season, was in and out and never had consistency. Poeltl is quality but is mainly a play finisher and can't really take significant burden off a ball handler. Pretty significantly lack of playmaking and shooting outside of those 2.

If the argument is RJ plays better with talent, what other sample do you have to look at?

[Jerry Lucas]

A bucks fan page on IG posted

RJ + Walter for Kuzma + Andre Jackson + 2031 1st + 2032 swap

No way would I do that, but this just goes to show how some players r viewed from other fanbases.

They said this trade gives them stability & an upgrade

This is very similar to Jake Weinbach's RJ to the Bucks 3-team trade idea. Only 2 differences are that the Kings are obviously cut out, and Ja'Kobe is needlessly included (to be expected from an opposing team's fan proposal).

Jake Weinbach's idea had Kuzma, Jackson and the pick going to the Kings, RJ going to the Bucks, and Malik Monk plus the swap going to the Raptors.

[ash_k]

I like him as a fallback option in case BI/Quick/Scottie are locked down and can’t score. Which will happen a lot imo. Kind of like what Norm was for us, though he came off the bench a ton too so there’s that to think about.

Not happening with BI.Not happening unless he is playing injured....Scottie maybe with super lengthy frontlines (not many like Cavs)..IQ, surely!
Some posters need to start waking up about RJ.
About a year ago, he was coming off the Olympics:
1. Giannis 25.8ppg | 2. SGA 21.0ppg |4. RJ 19.8ppg |5. Jokic 18.8ppg

None of those trade rumors should be believed around him outside of the ones including big timers(Giannis,KD) thus excluding Jrue, White, Cam J - just ridiculous rumors especially the ones including the "9th pick" as well.
Those "insiders" know that the Raptors fanbase with their insecurities bites and runs with anything thus boosting/trending their stories/rumors .

RJ likes to spot up and is our best transition scorer by far.
Like he demonstrated playing with MVP SGA, he has no issues playing off the ball and scoring his 20.
All that being said if RJ(3rd pick) is traded West to Sac for a package including Keegan Murray(4th), it would be acceptable.

[tsherkin]

I used Scottie as a proxie for playing with talent cause it's not like RJ played with any other real talent most of last year. Iq missed most of the season, was in and out and never had consistency. Poeltl is quality but is mainly a play finisher and can't really take significant burden off a ball handler. Pretty significantly lack of playmaking and shooting outside of those 2.

If the argument is RJ plays better with talent, what other sample do you have to look at?

You understand that he was so bad that the level of expected improvement with superior talent around him is only so much, yes? That's why this is so devoid of real substance. RJ has a lot of struggles, personally, with shotmaking. Even improved spacing will aid that only so far.

Anyway, we're getting a little further afield than I'd like; you're basically forcing me to be more negative than I want to, and I want to rein that in now. The original point was that RR was being HELLA loose with the word "maestro" for a guy who has major issues with shotmaking that aren't going to be solved miraculously by more spacing. RJ has visibly improved at decision-making in the PnR, and that's awesome. Of his passing, I've only good things to say.

Of his scoring, though, we do still have root issues with absent range, struggles off the bounce and then his ability to hit shots in close. Those will remain. Hopefully, it'll get a little better on reduced volume with shaped shot selection. Maybe he can improve some as well. We'll need to wait and see what happens when the season begins. We know some things about him, though, and they represent limitations even when he has more shooters around him, so I'm fairly hesitant to project big things from him, even if that would be delightful to see.

[ConSarnit]

How does it have no application to the pick and roll?

Scottie isn't a spacer and he isn't a good screener. RJ isn't running with him when RJ is running PnR. Scottie is 100% irrelevant to RJ's PnR play.

Don't know why you're talking about Poeltl when we were talking about Scottie.

My original point was how talent in general will improve it. Scottie doesnt have to be direftly involved in the pand R (tho he can be the occasional roll man), but he draws attention and can capitalize on 4 on 3 situations that a pick and roll might create, either himself or with the secondary passer, get offensive rebounds etc.. all those things go into ppp.

some of the other leaders in those RJ and Poeltl minutes were Davion Mitchel, Shead, Boucher and Mogbo. Barnes is a massive improvement over those even if he's not the best fit as a roller or spacer.

But how is Barnes a massive improvement over those guys in an RJ/Poeltl pnr situation? Barnes off-ball game is poor because he can’t shoot. Non-shooters (like Barnes) are harmful to a guy like RJ’s pnr play because RJ needs the spacing to get to the rim. RJ isn’t pulling up for 3 out of the pnr and he isn’t scoring from midrange. In order for RJ’s pnr game to work (which it really hasn’t, ever) he needs spacing to get to the rim. I don’t see any reason why his pnr ppp would increase with Barnes on the floor.

RJ’s ppp might increase overall with Barnes on the floor because he’s asked to do less and is therefor getting easier shots. Basically what we had him do in the 2nd half of ‘23/24. Limited pnr attempts, almost zero midrange attempts, wide open c&s 3’s and some catch and drive attempts. When RJ was at his most efficient we had basically removed any self created offense (pnr and iso). The extent of his self created offense was catch and go drives. Putting RJ back in that role should increase his PPP but I doubt his pnr PPP see’s any uptick from playing with Barnes. Maybe non-Barnes lineups with Sandro/Ingram/Dick etc where there is plenty of spacing.

[ConSarnit]

I like him as a fallback option in case BI/Quick/Scottie are locked down and can’t score. Which will happen a lot imo. Kind of like what Norm was for us, though he came off the bench a ton too so there’s that to think about.

Not happening with BI.Not happening unless he is playing injured....Scottie maybe with super lengthy frontlines (not many like Cavs)..IQ, surely!
Some posters need to start waking up about RJ.
About a year ago, he was coming off the Olympics:
1. Giannis 25.8ppg | 2. SGA 21.0ppg |4. RJ 19.8ppg |5. Jokic 18.8ppg

None of those trade rumors should be believed around him outside of the ones including big timers(Giannis,KD) thus excluding Jrue, White, Cam J - just ridiculous rumors especially the ones including the "9th pick" as well.
Those "insiders" know that the Raptors fanbase with their insecurities bites and runs with anything thus boosting/trending their stories/rumors .

RJ likes to spots up and is our best transition scorer by far.
Like he demonstrated playing with MVP SGA, he has no issues playing off the ball and scoring his 20.
All that being said if RJ(3rd pick) is traded West to Sac for a package including Keegan Murray(4th), it would be acceptable.

Barrett has been sub 40th percentile in transition scoring for 3 straight years. IQ has clearly been a better transition scorer and the numbers back this up. Ingram has had better years than anything RJ has done (though he is inconsistent). RJ scores the most in transition but by no means is he actually good at it.

Using your logic RJ is our 2nd best 3pt shooter because he scored the 2nd most points from 3 last year. Do you see why it doesn’t make sense to just use counting stats to measure someone’s effectiveness?

[tsherkin]

But how is Barnes a massive improvement over those guys in an RJ/Poeltl pnr situation?

He isn't. And I never said he was, nor would I ever.

RJ’s ppp might increase overall with Barnes on the floor because he’s asked to do less and is therefor getting easier shots. Basically what we had him do in the 2nd half of ‘23/24. Limited pnr attempts, almost zero midrange attempts, wide open c&s 3’s and some catch and drive attempts.

Yep, I was getting at this earlier.

When RJ was at his most efficient we had basically removed any self created offense (pnr and iso).

That's not quite accurate. He was getting a fairly similar number of PnR ball handler possessions per game with us compared to before the trade. 1 less per game. 0.6 vs 0.8 isolation possessions, so not a ton of change there either. +1.1 transition possessions.

There wasn't a huge change compared to what he'd already been doing in New York at all. A little more transition, a relatively small reduction in PnR play. Wasn't a huge iso guy to begin with.

[ConSarnit]

But how is Barnes a massive improvement over those guys in an RJ/Poeltl pnr situation?

He isn't. And I never said he was, nor would I ever.

RJ’s ppp might increase overall with Barnes on the floor because he’s asked to do less and is therefor getting easier shots. Basically what we had him do in the 2nd half of ‘23/24. Limited pnr attempts, almost zero midrange attempts, wide open c&s 3’s and some catch and drive attempts.

Yep, I was getting at this earlier.

When RJ was at his most efficient we had basically removed any self created offense (pnr and iso).

That's not quite accurate. He was getting a fairly similar number of PnR ball handler possessions per game with us compared to before the trade. 1 less per game. 0.6 vs 0.8 isolation possessions, so not a ton of change there either. +1.1 transition possessions.

There wasn't a huge change compared to what he'd already been doing in New York at all. A little more transition, a relatively small reduction in PnR play. Wasn't a huge iso guy to begin with.

I wasn’t replying to you regarding why Barnes would be helpful to RJ’s pnr game. I was replying to Nikster.

You’re right about the iso/pnr numbers. I was misremembering. His pnr fga got cut in almost half here (2.8fga vs 1.5fga). His ft frequency more than doubled on pnr which I’m guessing came from some sort of “you’re only allowed to shoot at the rim” mandate. RJ was at 1.3 midrange attempts on the Knicks but dropped to 0.2 attempts after the trade. He also took 3 total pull-up 3pa with the Raptors in ‘23/24.

I guess looking at all of this you could see how RJ’s pnr ppp could increase, even with Barnes. Now, it also looks like his volume of pnr fga could be really low. When he was “optimized” in ‘23/24 he only took 1.5fga out of the pnr. Ingram will almost assuredly come in a soak up pnr possessions (likely leading the team). IQ will run more pnr than RJ. Barnes is tbd but he’ll get reps.

All of this is to say: how much do we really have to worry about RJ’s pnr scoring if he’s literally converting somewhere around half a field goal per game out of pnr possessions? It’s not exactly going to make or break our offense.

[tsherkin]

I wasn’t replying to you regarding why Barnes would be helpful to RJ’s pnr game. I was replying to Nikster.

That's on me; I misread the quote layers, sorry.

You’re right about the iso/pnr numbers. I was misremembering. His pnr fga got cut in almost half here (2.8fga vs 1.5fga). His ft frequency more than doubled on pnr which I’m guessing came from some sort of “you’re only allowed to shoot at the rim” mandate. RJ was at 1.3 midrange attempts on the Knicks but dropped to 0.2 attempts after the trade. He also took 3 total pull-up 3pa with the Raptors in ‘23/24.

Yeah, the whole "do not shoot unless it is inside 10 feet or from 3" thing worked out reasonably well for him after the trade. He even dropped his 3pt volume. The problem is, he was getting over 43% of his 15+ FGA/g inside 3 feet, and that's not something he can sustain. 35%, which is still REALLY good, is sustainable for him, but at that overall volume, we aren't gonna get him shooting 6 FGA/g in the RA without also taking some more middies and stuff, not on a regular basis.

All of this is to say: how much do we really have to worry about RJ’s pnr scoring if he’s literally converting somewhere around half a field goal per game out of pnr possessions? It’s not exactly going to make or break our offense.

No, his PnR scoring isn't our primary focus. His overall scoring efficiency and volume are much more relevant points of concern/debate. And it IS worth mentioning his passing out of the PnR, which was quite a bit better this year (and in general, not just out of the PnR).

But yeah, RR is a little nuts for calling him a "maestro" in this context. Love their enthusiasm, but that was bonkers.

[nivisi9]

if were trying to win this year im wondering why didn't we attempt to flip RJ for NormGod if he was basically given away?

that could've been a nice upgrade and improve our shooting concerns.

Damn that would've been a good one.

[Los_29]

if were trying to win this year im wondering why didn't we attempt to flip RJ for NormGod if he was basically given away?

that could've been a nice upgrade and improve our shooting concerns.

Damn that would've been a good one.

Clippers were signing Beal so they were looking to move some of their depth at the 2/3.

[tsherkin]

if were trying to win this year im wondering why didn't we attempt to flip RJ for NormGod if he was basically given away?

that could've been a nice upgrade and improve our shooting concerns.

Damn that would've been a good one.

We're probably still banking on how much rim pressure RJ creates, even with his various deficiencies. Over a third of his FGA are in the RA, and even if he finishes at a fairly weak percentage there, that's still like 5 60-something percent shots per game and a bunch of fouls to go with them.

[DreamTeam09]

Norman Powell is 7yrs older, how is that a consideration to anyone, I promise you our shooting concerns aren't that bad