Realgm East Preview Podcast - WAY UNDER 37.5 wins, case for Darko hate?

[ForeverTFC]

It can't just be about the losing because analysts love Will Hardy and used to love Daignault before they started winning. And we can't just brush it off as uninformed analysts because even Lowe questioned him a month or so ago IIRC. But as you point out, no one has really said what exactly gives them doubt about Darko.

I have seen some analytics folks argue that our offense creates very little scoring opportunities despite the ball movement, concluding that we pass for the sake of passing and implying Darko's offense sucks. But that's about it...

[tsherkin]

Why is this hate, our team is crap

Because it's very likely inaccurate. Like, with reasonable health and not-tanking, we might have threatened .500 this past season. Now adding 60+ games of BI, it should be very different. The idea that we will be "WAY UNDER" 37.5 wins is spectacularly odd.

[GLF]

It can't just be about the losing because analysts love Will Hardy and used to love Daignault before they started winning. And we can't just brush it off as uninformed analysts because even Lowe questioned him a month or so ago IIRC. But as you point out, no one has really said what exactly gives them doubt about Darko.

I have seen some analytics folks argue that our offense creates very little scoring opportunities despite the ball movement, concluding that we pass for the sake of passing and implying Darko's offense sucks. But that's about it...

What’s funny is that’s how I know they don’t watch the Raptors if they’re saying our offence creates very little scoring opportunities. That’s the furthest from the truth. The problem with our offence was we had no one who could consistently hit shots or finish in the paint. We were bottom of the league at that, while there are stats that showed we were top of the league in terms of generating open looks. We generated a lot of open 3s and shots at the basket but no one could finish/capitalize. And you could see it when watching the team so the eye test definitely confirms it. The hope is IQ playing more than 33 games, BI being here now and improvement from the young players will help us improve our shooting and finishing in the paint.

[ForeverTFC]

It can't just be about the losing because analysts love Will Hardy and used to love Daignault before they started winning. And we can't just brush it off as uninformed analysts because even Lowe questioned him a month or so ago IIRC. But as you point out, no one has really said what exactly gives them doubt about Darko.

I have seen some analytics folks argue that our offense creates very little scoring opportunities despite the ball movement, concluding that we pass for the sake of passing and implying Darko's offense sucks. But that's about it...

What’s funny is that’s how I know they don’t watch the Raptors if they’re saying our offence creates very little scoring opportunities. That’s the furthest from the truth. The problem with our offence was we had no one who could consistently hit shots or finish in the paint. We were bottom of the league at that, while there are stats that showed we were top of the league in terms of generating open looks. We generated a lot of open 3s and shots at the basket but no one could finish/capitalize. And you could see it when watching the team so the eye test definitely confirms it. The hope is IQ playing more than 33 games, BI being here now and improvement from the young players will help us improve our shooting and finishing in the paint.

I wish I could find it, but there was a chart/tweet that pushed back on this. The vertical axis was quality of shots created and the horizontal axis was pass rate I believe. We were very high on pass rate and very low on shot quality created.

[tsherkin]

I wish I could find it, but there was a chart/tweet that pushed back on this. The vertical axis was quality of shots created and the horizontal axis was pass rate I believe. We were very high on pass rate and very low on shot quality created.

Is that hugely surprising?

With little spacing, we could move around all we want, but we're trying to run in the mud. We have little rim pressure, so when we get around a screen with someone other than RJ (or otherwise get a head of steam going south), we can't do much with it, so the defense doesn't actually have to move all the much to deal with us.

I think it's an ability issue more than a tactical one. We'll see a little more clearly this year.

[ForeverTFC]

I wish I could find it, but there was a chart/tweet that pushed back on this. The vertical axis was quality of shots created and the horizontal axis was pass rate I believe. We were very high on pass rate and very low on shot quality created.

Is that hugely surprising?

With little spacing, we could move around all we want, but we're trying to run in the mud. We have little rim pressure, so when we get around a screen with someone other than RJ (or otherwise get a head of steam going south), we can't do much with it, so the defense doesn't actually have to move all the much to deal with us.

I think it's an ability issue more than a tactical one. We'll see a little more clearly this year.

Could very well be. it's an open question which naturally lends itself to multiple hypotheses which leads to Darko doubt. Is it the offense, the personnel or a combination of the 2? We'll have a good sense of that this year as you said.

[causal_fan]

It always surprises me that people bet on season over/under - Your money is tied up for so long, injures and trades are unforeseen - just seems like a sucker bet - I wonder what win % for betters.

[tsherkin]

Is it the offense, the personnel or a combination of the 2? We'll have a good sense of that this year as you said.

Yeah, now that we should be moderately healthy and have some shooting, we can start looking at what we need to tinker with and tweak, for sure.

[Harry Palmer]

A reminder that while the Raps did tank last year, so too did a ton of teams they were playing against, many of them harder than us. There’s no Wemby/Flagg this year so like us, many teams who were tanking won’t be, and their fans are all also presuming that’ll lead to a huge turnaround. Most of them will be wrong.

I don’t really have a dog in this fight as the race to the middle bores me to tears, but just to add some perspective to how transformational tanking/not tanking might prove to be when looked at the whole.

[WhatsaTDot]

"They don't watch us."
"They are uninformed about the Raptors."
"I could careless what they think of us."

This is a numbers and gambling game. It's not about hating or loving. It's about generating a line for action so they make money. Nothing else. And they were pretty damn spot on the money last year with 31.5 wins in August 2024.

[Jerry Lucas]

A reminder that while the Raps did tank last year, so too did a ton of teams they were playing against, many of them harder than us. There’s no Wemby/Flagg this year so like us, many teams who were tanking won’t be, and their fans are all also presuming that’ll lead to a huge turnaround. Most of them will be wrong.

I don’t really have a dog in this fight as the race to the middle bores me to tears, but just to add some perspective to how transformational tanking/not tanking might prove to be when looked at the whole.

I'm guessing you've never heard of Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and AJ Dybantsa before.

[Harry Palmer]

A reminder that while the Raps did tank last year, so too did a ton of teams they were playing against, many of them harder than us. There’s no Wemby/Flagg this year so like us, many teams who were tanking won’t be, and their fans are all also presuming that’ll lead to a huge turnaround. Most of them will be wrong.

I don’t really have a dog in this fight as the race to the middle bores me to tears, but just to add some perspective to how transformational tanking/not tanking might prove to be when looked at the whole.

I'm guessing you've never heard of Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and AJ Dybantsa before.

Well, I’m a Jayhawks fan, so automatically at least 1/3, but none of them are considered what Wemby or even Flagg were.

[Harry Palmer]

Not sitting well with me, so I thought I’d expand: I would probably take the over myself, but the truth is BI is the big X-factor and I have zero feel for his game. His best seasons I was barely paying attention to the league, so it’s mostly stats, clips and scouting reports. But because I have no real confidence in what he is, I would not bet either way. I’d add that we’re also 1 or 2 injuries away from being hopeless. Yes, to a degree that’s true of many teams, but that’s also why long-term NBA team projection bets aren’t my kind of thing.

Aside from him I like the latest draft pick, have pretty definitely decided Scottie ain’t it, but I think people are going too far in the other direction as a result. He’s a fine player who still possesses upside and he’s my kind of multiple player. The rest, IQ imo is best suited to a 6th man role, RJ is the kind of player who imo would not have a significant role on real contenders but is kinda irresistible to lesser teams, people seem really down on Dick but maybe as a Jayhawks fan my aspirations were lower, ie high level reserve/low level starter and I still feel he can get there. Overall I feel we’re extremely meh and locked into extremely meh for a pretty long time, I feel were a classic Raptors treadmill team, but BI might be able to elevate enough that. And I liked our pick this year, another of my kind of player.

While imo were just not built for any kind of real sustainable success, if BI maxes out we could have a ~ Pacers run in us. Which I totally did not see coming, is partly my point. It’s not…at all…the way I like my teams built or the kind of low-level-miracle possibility team I find entertaining, and at this point I think it’s a matter of how much time will we tread water before giving up on this approach, but ownership is probably fine with just making the playoffs fairly regularly, so I’m not optimistic. Not to belabour the obvious…if you’ve been around here you’ll know this, but OKC and Houston and the older versions of Philly and OKC if they had followed through are my style of build. And even there it’s a smidget off; I don’t think I’d have seen SGA as The Guy as early as they committed to it, and I am less all in on Durant and definitely wish Houston kept Cam, so…reservations but generally that’s my bag. To give some understanding of why these occasional mostly involuntary and/or partial tanks and prioritizing known floors over high ceilings on trade returns don’t do it for me.

[Johnny Bball]

Matt Moore and CBS is the reason we have "We the Other"

[tsherkin]

Not sitting well with me, so I thought I’d expand: I would probably take the over myself, but the truth is BI is the big X-factor and I have zero feel for his game. His best seasons I was barely paying attention to the league, so it’s mostly stats, clips and scouting reports. But because I have no real confidence in what he is, I would not bet either way. I’d add that we’re also 1 or 2 injuries away from being hopeless. Yes, to a degree that’s true of many teams, but that’s also why long-term NBA team projection bets aren’t my kind of thing.

The issue with him is purely health. If he is any kind of healthy, we have a (relatively) strong season. If he plays under 60 games, we will be under .500, and probably well under.

Aside from him I like the latest draft pick, have pretty definitely decided Scottie ain’t it, but I think people are going too far in the other direction as a result. He’s a fine player who still possesses upside and he’s my kind of multiple player.

He blows as a volume scorer. But that isn't the whole game. If we stop using him as a focal weapon, he's still a very good defender who rebounds well, has some passing/playmaking scenarios which make sense and could theoretically become useful as a connecting passer in the half court. And even though he sucks at it all over and it's below average, we COULD have him shooting 35-36% from the corners (he's been consistently around that level his whole career) and eliminate ATB 3s to make him a 36% 3pt shooter. That'd give him any utility as a sort of limp stretch 4, which opens up his passing and D for us while we taper off his shooting volume and arrange his shot types much more carefully. That could work out reasonably well for us.

The rest, IQ imo is best suited to a 6th man role,

He'll surprise you. 17 ppg on league-average efficiency with strong above-break shooting and reasonable passing with lots of drives is a useful player.

RJ is the kind of player who imo would not have a significant role on real contenders but is kinda irresistible to lesser teams,

All depends on which RJ shows up. If we reduce volume and make shoot nothing from 11-23 feet, and make most of his 3s from the right corner, we might have something useful.

people seem really down on Dick but maybe as a Jayhawks fan my aspirations were lower, ie high level reserve/low level starter and I still feel he can get there.

We'll see what he looks like this year. If he can shoot against light contest this year and finish half-way competently in the paint, he'll be valuable bench offense injection. He's young, he's developing, we can give him time.


We aren't building a contender with the roster as it is presently constructed. We need some major changes before that becomes a thing. But we could build some breath in the playoffs, and maybe even a series victory in a weaker conference year. We just need to not be a joke squad, and if we're healthy, we will not be that. Then we need to take the NEXT step, which will be far more difficult, speaking to your remark about classical Raptors treadmill teams, for sure.