Prediction: Raps Win 49 Games this Year

[d-Mac]

The Raps have had a tough schedule so far, and looking down the road things look easier. Based on current winning percentages, the total combined winning percentage of the teams we have left to face is well below 0.500.

This is a very simplistic model, but, without actually comparing matchups and looking at road vs home, or back-to-backs etc (these should all cancel each other out over a large number of games), here is what I see for the remaining games:

Jan W L Pct Difference
Wed 16 vs Sacramento 15 21 0.417 0.109
Fri 18 vs Atlanta 17 17 0.500 0.026
Sat 19 @ Philadelphia 15 24 0.385 0.141
Wed 23 @ Boston 30 6 0.833 -0.307
Fri 25 vs Milwaukee 15 23 0.395 0.131
Tue 29 @ Washington 20 17 0.541 -0.015
Wed 30 vs Washington 20 17 0.541 -0.015
February
Fri 01 vs LA Lakers 26 11 0.703 -0.177
Mon 04 @ Miami 8 28 0.222 0.304
Fri 08 vs LA Clippers 11 23 0.324 0.202
Sun 10 @ Minnesota 5 32 0.135 0.391
Mon 11 vs San Antonio 25 11 0.694 -0.168
Wed 13 vs New Jersey 18 19 0.486 0.040
Wed 20 vs Orlando 24 16 0.600 -0.074
Fri 22 @ New York 11 26 0.297 0.229
Sun 24 vs New York 11 26 0.297 0.229
Mon 25 @ Indiana 17 22 0.436 0.090
Wed 27 vs Minnesota 5 32 0.135 0.391
Fri 29 vs Indiana 17 22 0.436 0.090
March
Sun 02 @ Charlotte 14 23 0.378 0.148
Tue 04 @ Orlando 24 16 0.600 -0.074
Wed 05 @ Miami 8 28 0.222 0.304
Fri 07 vs Washington 20 17 0.541 -0.015
Sun 09 vs Seattle 9 28 0.243 0.283
Tue 11 @ LA Lakers 26 11 0.703 -0.177
Wed 12 @ Golden State 23 16 0.590 -0.064
Fri 14 @ Denver 22 15 0.595 -0.069
Sun 16 @ Sacramento 15 21 0.417 0.109
Mon 17 @ Utah 22 17 0.564 -0.038
Wed 19 vs Miami 8 28 0.222 0.304
Fri 21 @ Cleveland 20 18 0.526 0.000
Sun 23 vs Denver 22 15 0.595 -0.069
Wed 26 vs Detroit 29 10 0.744 -0.218
Fri 28 vs New York 11 26 0.297 0.229
Sun 30 vs New Orleans 25 12 0.676 -0.150
Mon 31 @ Charlotte 14 23 0.378 0.148
April
Wed 02 @ Atlanta 17 17 0.500 0.026
Fri 04 vs Charlotte 14 23 0.378 0.148
Sat 05 @ New Jersey 18 19 0.486 0.040
Wed 09 vs Milwaukee 15 23 0.395 0.131
Fri 11 vs New Jersey 18 19 0.486 0.040
Sun 13 @ Detroit 29 10 0.744 -0.218
Mon 14 vs Miami 8 28 0.222 0.304
Wed 16 @ Chicago 14 22 0.389 0.137
755 878 0.462 0.064

To figure out the wins and losses, I gave the Raps the win when their current winning pct was greater than 0.1 above the opponent and a loss when the opponent's current winning pct is 0.1 greater than the Raps. This resulted in a prediction of 20 probable wins and only 7 probable losses. I divided the remaining games into half wins and half losses (9 wins, 8 losses). This would give us a 29-15 record from here on with a final record of 49-33.
I don't expect these predictions to hold up on a game by game basis, but I do think this is a reasonable expectation based on how they've played so far this year against the competition to this point.

[tnugget]

nice job on the effort

[Greg Foster Jr.]

choose the freshly baked bread...
a healthy portion of juicy ham...

[Illuminati]

You are insane could I molest you in the back?

[dagger]

Considering we have a reasonable shot at being four games over .500 after next Wednesday's game at Boston, heading into a stretch of mainly winnable games, we could be 10 over .500 by the all-star break, so why not a run at 50?

[zong]

Prediction: you're wrong

[ponder276]

45-50 wins seems reasonable.

[RockTHECasbah]

GO GOG GO GOG OGG GOGOGOGOGO

[RockTHECasbah]

POWER RANGERs

I like our big man rotation of Bosh, Humps, and Barny

Bargs needs to pan out though

they are all young and one is big and sexy

[foetopsy]

50 + wins no doubt

[peralta]

don't jinx the team lol

[ToffKobe]

I still have confidence that we'll win 82 games this season.