Hollinger's Updated Playoff Odds

[magani]

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Actually, it makes sense that good teams in the East have a better chance than those in the West because of how much easier it is to get to the finals. Orlando has beaten both Detroit and Boston (twice) this season, so it's entirely possible that they have a better shot than Phoenix, who may have to make it through, say, Golden State (1st round)-New Orleans (2nd round)-San Antonio (WCF).

I don't think so. It wasn't the odds of MAKING the Finals, it was the odds to WIn it all. I don't care how soft the East is overall, anybody in the WEST has a better chance than any East team outside Boston/Detroit. Look at Cleveland last year. They made it, but had nochnace once they got there. Also, no chance New Orleans makes it past both Phoenix and the Spurs and Dallas. So, New Orleans rankings are too high to even get to the Finals, much less win it all. I stand by my views. I'm sure Vegas finds the odds quite differently or else everyone would be rushing to bet on the Spurs. What are the Vegas odds anyway? It's easy to make a claim when there's no money on the line.

[dinosaur_dan]

I like what Hollinger is trying to do with his predictor, but it seems to overstate things.

Really, Toronto at 100% chances of making the finals? And if Calderon breaks his ankle? Bosh's foot flares up again? Clearly 100% is foolish with 40 games to go. New Orleans with an 18.8% chance of winning it all? Ummm...

[LittleOzzy]

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San Antonio also has a history of failing to repeat.

I doubt the math involved in his 5,000 sims takes that into account.

[chsh22]

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I doubt the math involved in his 5,000 sims takes that into account.

Why wouldn't it?
Did he document somewhere all the variables he considered? Is it just based on PER?

It is entirely possible to include that kind of data, so I don't see why you wouldn't.