OT: Reviewing the 2006 NBA Draft

[Toronto BC 07]

I'm surprised this thread hasn't been locked.

Why would it get locked? lol

GuySmiley: I agree with you on Bosh. Even though I think stats on bad teams are misleading at times, Rudy Gay is no doubt becoming a star in this league.

[asif9t9]

I'm surprised this hasn't been locked because it's another "who should we have drafted thread?" I personally don't mind repetitive threads/topics, but most people here seem to hate it. You always hear, "this has already been posted....".

As for Gay, it's all speculation now. Does he look better than Andrea now? Yes. But I think a skinny wing player can only go so far in terms of leading a team. Hey, it's my opinion. You can't prove me wrong and I can't prove you wrong. Unless we wait a few years and revisit this. Which I'm sure we'll do here at RealGM.

[Komodo]

Which is why the 06 draft was so important for us to get another star. We are already adept at finding role players.

Bargnani's inconsistency is frustrating, but if the stars ever align with him we'll be laughing. Patience is the key, but hoping he reaches his potential in the future, which may only be slightly better than Roy NOW, is also frustrating.

Oh well, drafts are a crapshoot and 06 was a big one.

1. Andrea Bargnani - Toronto
2. LaMarcus Aldridge - Portland
3. Adam Morrison - Charlotte
4. Tyrus Thomas - Chicago
5. Sheldon Williams - Atlanta
6. Brandon Roy - Portland
7. Randy Foye - Minnesota
8. Rudy Gay - Pemphis
9. Patrick O'Bryant
10. Saer Sene -Seattle

Morrison and Williams are clearly busts. Thomas is still young, but his attitude is poor. Foye is a tweener who can't find his game. O'Bryant's option wasn't even picked up, and Sene is very raw and might end up a Diop-type when all is said and done.

[Toronto BC 07]

I wouldn't say Morrison and Williams are busts, they may just need more time to progress. Last season I liked Williams game, not 'picking him 5th overall' liked, but he showed he could be a good bench player in the future. Not exactly sure what happened to him this season.

BTW, what a game for Bargs tonight. His shot technique tonight was just like last season, when he kicks his legs out forward when he shoots is when he gets into major 0-for stretches.

[Double Y]

Well I am sure that Charlotte is pissed as well that they took AMMO when they did as well. The draft is a crap shoot nothing is a sure thing. How many people passed on Boozer, Howard, Arenas and Parker and look at them now.

Yeah we can all play armchair GM and say well look at what we would have had

PG: Ford/Calderon/Marcus Williams (instead of Graham)
SG: Igoudala (instead of Araujo)/Roy (instead of Bargnani)/whatever
SF: Moon/Kopono/Garbojasa
PF: Bosh/Garbojas/Baston
C: Nesterovic/whatever/whatever

I disagree with the crapshoot statement but agree that nothing is a sure thing.

Historically, most of the picks in the top 10 deserves to be in the top 10 and usually almost all of the top 5. Ignoring 2006's draft (since that's the main contention of this thread, so we'll look at other drafts), for example, in 2005, you'd probably still take Bogut, the Williams sisters, Paul, Felton, CV and Bynum in your top 10. In 2004, you'd still take Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Harris, Deng, Iguodala and maybe Childress. 2003 you'd still go with James, Anthony, Bosh, Wade, Kaman, Hinrich, and Ford. Even in the bust year of 2001, You'd still have Chandler, Gasol, Curry, Richardson, Battier and Johnson in your top 10.

It's simply a matter of probability, most ppl drafted after 10 are less likely to be as successful, and the lower you're drafted, the less likely. Very few players drafted in the 2nd round end up being close or significantly better than the players drafted in the top 10. Your aforementioned examples tend to be the only players among 30 others that can make that case. The NBA draft is a calculated investment that generally pays off according to draft order. It's not 100% accurate, but since the players drafted can contribute right away, even if you don't draft a player that belongs exactly where he's drafted, you'll still generally get a talent in that range. Hockey drafts are harder to gauge because most players take a few years before they crack the league, and baseball the toughest because very few players contribute right away, most toiling in the minors at least 5 years before you can accurately assess whether they're major league material.

[Toronto BC 07]

Double Y: Very well said. Your signature does not match your post. lol

The 2006 draft so far has been really weak, only a handful of players will become good to great players and only approximately 5-10 will be in the league for more than 4 seasons.

Remember PJ Tucker? lol